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One must remember the correlation not only of forces and governments in the area of the southern hemisphere, but also the division in investments.
Chilé: Although beset by a series of rather inefficient junta governments before fascist coups installed a coalition government led by socialists and communists, Chile already seemed a likely ally of Reich in many eyes. Prior to the Great War - when the British presence at Concepcion and in Antofagasta generally played Santiago's hand, Germany had held signifigant stock - and indeed a monopoly - in or over Chilean nitrates and copper interests. Hardest by all nations during the Depression, however, American investment and corporate loans were a major factor for stabilization. Besides Chilean government predisposed to fear its very own population, few supported conflict of any sort, let alone with Argentina or the US. Chile's fascists, although repressed as brutally as those in Rumania, were far less potent.
Argentina: A British thrall, yet the nation ranking 6th among the world's GDP ratings, Argentina held considerable numbers - among the millions - of Italian and German ethnic enclaves. This among a nation whose twelve million people were mostly give to British persuasion. Had the Argentines now had the English monopoly of beef and wheat, their economy would have foundered. Because the German U-Boats had a hand in this, war was only narrowly diverted. The Argentine govt. and not the Argentine people wanted a war on the German side.
Uraguay: A nation with only a few million people, signifigant numbers were German or Italian. This to the point that Hitler had theorized later invasion of South America via Montevideo, and later, the Argentine lowlands. Yet Montevideo was firmly in the sway of Argentina.
The United States could have handled any and all eventualities in the region save perhaps the Argentine favoritism of Germany among government circles - which might have taken a year to dissolve via blockades or naval confrentation. There could only have been similar cirumstances when Brazil is taken into account.
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