I have not changed my argument. Romania was a paper tiger. Had she faced the Soviet Union virtually alone in 1942, with the Germans preoccupied(the auspice for the attack), she would have been crushed in a matter of weeks from the simple fact Romanian soldiers would be outnumbered by a factor of at least 5 in manpower, 10 in tanks, and 10 in aircraft, if the Soviets put only 30% of their forces on the Romanian front.
During Barbarossa, the Romanian formations advanced the least distance of any Axis units due to their lack of transport. The Romanian 4th Army covered the most ground of any of the Romanian units, about 100 miles by Aug 25, '41, laying siege to Odessa. Most German units had covered over 300 miles by this date, some nearly 500 miles. The German 20th and 11th Armies punched large holes in the Soviet lines massed on the border, the Romanians moving along on foot behind the quickly advancing German columns, capturing pockets of resistance. By October '41 the German 11th army had reached the Crimea, while the 4th Rom army was mopping up Russian resistance north of Odessa, nearly 200 miles from the front. The 3rd Rom. was still in Bessarbia. The 2 Rom. Armies contain less than 500,000 men.
The Romanians would under Soviet attack, have to heavily defend the Black Sea coastal plain as both Ploesti,Constanta and Bucharest are located on this 100 mile strip of relatively flat(vast majority is under 300' elevation) ground that runs from south of the Danube to well east of Odessa. The only natural defensive positions are the Rivers Prutul and the Danube. The Soviets will attempt to force the Danube with their greater number of artillery pieces and air superiority providing support. The river crossing would be bloody but likely the Soviets can afford the butcher bill. If the Soviets are lucky and quickly take Galatz or Ismail(remember the USSR has the one of largest para forces on Earth at this point) and manage to capture or rebuild a bridge quickly they will be in Bucharest in a week. The Romanians have two problems A) Troops bypassed at the border, would lack transport to follow motorized Red Army troops. Red Army troops outnumbering the Roms. should be able to hold supply lines, at least for a short while. B) Smaller Romanian army would prohibit defence in depth against the Bear, once a breach in the initial line was made it would be hard for them to plug.
The tableland beyond the River Prutul would be death to the Rom. army with such an inferiority in tanks and aircraft. This land closely resembles Kansas in topography and vegetation, except for a 20 mile wide finger of forested low hills stretching south from Galatz for about 40 miles along the east bank of the Danube, much different than winter in Finland. In this open terrain more mobile, heavily equipped Soviet units would run roughshod over Romanian units. The only chance for any Romanian units survival would be to retreat into the mountains sacrificing their oil, capital, and bulk of their population to Soviet occupation. At this point its over, Ceausescu is set in power, forms a Communist government and Romanians fight over Romania, leaving the Soviets to fight the Germans.
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It's a sick, sick world. I'm a happy man.
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