Another factor not mentioned yet is the German anti-aircraft effort.

Without Allied bombing, considerable quantities of weaponry and munitions would have 'released' for use elsewhere. Not sure about manpower - were the flak crews high-quality troops ?
But the Luftwaffe put massive efforts into destroying RAF & USAAF bombers - those guys for sure would have been useful on other fronts.

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"Stand by to pull me out of the seat if I get hit" - Guy Gibson