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Andreas Seidel · #71 (**permalink**) August 18th, 2002, 04:42 PM

Just discovered this bit of writing that I created a few years ago. It's on topic but neatly misses the resource issue. But for what it's worth, here goes:

Production for War Reaches Top Priority a Lot Earlier

Another what-if. It struck me, while discussing the topic with my grandfather, that Germany was actually only playing at war until 1943. In fact, some people were still treating the war like a stupid game in 1945. This is quite understandable when you come to think about the fact that on January 1st 1945, the front lines were roughly the border lines of the Reich.

My grandfather, you must know, was managing director (or roughly that) of a factory in Sielsia from 1940 onwards IIRC. Until 1943, guess what they were making - the incredibly strategically important war good of fountain pens. Then he got a call from the local chief of the Nazi party, with whom he was on quite good terms, who warned him that unless he changed production to something more suitable for attacking the enemy his factory would be closed and his workers, staff and his boss (and he himself) be made soldiers. After a few adventures too numerous and too long to tell, he ended up building vital high-precision parts for the V weapons, presumably for the navigation equipment.

So, in 1943, production was finally changed for war. Isn't this a bit late? What if it had already been changed over in 1939? The situation as far as material supplies went was a lot better back then - there was still all that stuff flowing in from the Soviet Union and the Balkans were co-operative and nobody was bombing any factories yet.

There was one thing missing, though, and this was labour. With every able-bodied man on the front, industry was desperately short-handed. This is the reason why millions upon millions of foreigners were deported to Germany to work in the factories under conditions too disastrous to describe. By 1944, the deportation was at its boom and so was - surprise, surprise - the production level of tanks, guns etc etc.

On the one hand it therefor seems unlikely that a very high level of production could be achieved in 1939 or 1940 since there is a lack of labour force. On the other hand you must remember that the Wehrmacht in 1939 and 1940 is nowhere near what it was in 1944. It is still a relatively small force. In 1944 about 10 million people were German soldiers, in 1939 there were 2-3 million (I have the figures somewhere but can't be bothered to look it up). So, IMHO, from the labour point of view this could easily have been achieved.

Some people will now probably think that the conversion from peace-time industry to war-time industry would take years, probably thinking of the USA, which took ages to get into gear (though once it did it was unbeatable!). Well, I can tell you exactly how long it took to convert my grandfather's factory. The first of the machines was converted from fountain pen parts to V-weapon parts in one night by one man. In one week, the entire factory was converted. The trick is to pick the right factories to do the right work. It would have been quite impossible - to take just an example - to convert a fountain pen factory to make Tiger tanks even within a few months.

Thus, to sum it all up, it is my opinion that had the German industry been put on a war footing at once in 1939, Germany would undoubtedly have won the war. Far more tanks, more guns, more planes, more submarines.... losses suffered in 1940 and 1941 would easily have been replaced - maybe Russia would have fallen in 1941. Who knows? The possibilities are limitless.