Very good posts, gentlemen!
I only wanted to point out that those 61 divisions available without a MTO would have helped the German war effort, if not substantially enough to change the tide of the war in the east. But 61 divisions are 61 divisions with all their equippment and an air fleet! Which remainds me that all those transport aeroplanes lost in Crete and as transports in North Africa would have been of great help in the eastern front. Again, not enough to win the war. To do so, it would have been necesary not 61, but 261 divisions and three more air fleets. But as Napoléon said: "I can't manufacture troops!"
And I never thought about Taranto raid either... The lack of it would have had an important impact on the PTO. Supossing that the Japanese wouldn't have come with the idea themselves...
But a major fleet versus fleet battle would have happened most likely. A Jutland in the Pacific which would fascinate all battleship buffs.
But I think that the aircraft carriers would have been the ones to turn the tide of that battle.