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Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
At the absolute best, the Soviets in a scenario like this would advance 250 to 300 km and then grind to a halt for 6 months while their logistical train, such as it was, caught up. This pattern is repeated with every offensive they launched in World War 2.
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Yes but they beat the Germans that way. I know, I know, I'm being simplistic.
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Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
Just some other numbers: The US had just over 1 million troops in Naval Construction Battalions (who are also trained as infantry). There are almost 1 million soldiers in the US in various units not shipped overseas in 1945. It isn't unreasonable to suggest that by late 1946 the US alone could have had 200 to 250 divisions in service if they really wanted or needed to.
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More Western Faceless Hordes [img]smile.gif[/img] . You need more than riflemen (ex-Seabees) to make up a fightin' infantry division, you need trained staff, artillery, signals, logistics, etc. So you can release the manpower with basic training, but you need to complement that. Granted, it's possible given time. But where are you going to bomb from?
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Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
What happens when Sakalin Island falls (20 - 25% of their oil supply)? What happens when their Siberian troops are cut off by bombing the @$#@ out of the single rail line supporting them?
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Here you got me. The Sakhalins would be gone. As for the Orient Express line, ok, it could be bombed, but it could be repaired. Problem would be bombing the marshalling yards and rail material parks, after that you could no longer repair this extremely long and vulnerable tether.
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Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
Another real possibility is a Black Sea / Iranian / Turkish invasion as well. Unlike the Allies, the Soviets have only limited ability to move their troops strategically. Look at how long it took them to move East for their invasion of Manchuria. And, that was unopposed.
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Right, but then I can't see how sustainable would an Allied offensive from Iran would be due to lack of roads, lack of objectives, etc. Now, if you could drag Turkey in the business that would be a problem with an invasion from the Black Sea.
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Originally posted by T. A. Gardner:
In the short term the Soviets stand to make minor gains in such a war. In the long term they lose big.
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Your theories could be debated, but you raise some new and interesting points which deserve thought.