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Let's start with historical Soviet advances of the period. None made more than about 300 miles before they ran out of steam due to, if to nothing else (as in Bagration), the failure of the logistics train to be able to keep up. This means the furthest the Soviets could advance even if virtually unopposed is roughly the Rhine. There they would have to sit for 4 to 6 months before making another lunge forward.
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This may be truth, but if I remember correctly: 'Bagration' advanced 600 km and killed, wounded or captured 500.000 Germans.
I never said the Soviets would have reached the Atlantic. But maybe they didn't need to. Advancing 200 km and annihilating half million of your enemies is more than enough.
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Of course, in part, how much surprise the Soviets achieve will also play a role in how well they do. Little surprise, small gains. Major surprise they sit on the Rhine and await round two where they get pounded.
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This is quite right. But I wouldn't underestimate the Soviets on the surprise issue. 'Maskirovka' was one of the most genial surprise systems ever performed in warfare.
But we all agree on something: the USSR would lose all its advantages, tactical and strategical after 6 months of combat with the western allies, even after enormous victories.