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Just some thoughts:
If you keep the US outta war, Hitlerīs situation definitely would have gotten better as I think it was also necessary for the British to get the back up by the USA. I donīt think the US would have stayed out of war in Europe for much longer even if Hitler had not declared war. So maybe one or two years at the most before declaring war to Germany. FDR was going to help Churchill.
On Russian campaign I think Germany lost a whole of tanks and good men in 1941-42, so by 1942 they were not capable of launching attacks in all three army groups but only one and it was chosen to be the the southern sector, and they also had a huge number of Rumanian and Italian soldiers to help them ( otherwise they would not have enough men ). Hitler himself would have definitely wanted to attack in all fronts.But the tide had turned against him. Then the catastrophe of Stalingrad and even bigger losses of good men. In Kursk the new tanks were not fulfilling the expectations, vice versa. Besides in the middle of it the Red Army started its own counterattack so I think even if they got the Kursk surrounded they would have been driven away. the only chance would have been to hold on to the elastic defence and destroy the attacking Red Army forces as much as possible with the Ferdinands and other tanks with 88īs etc.
By 1943 deciding to attack Kursk Hitler lost the final round in east and the war was lost there. However by letting troops move in good order he would have had a lot more men to use in fighting than using the stubborn "not a step back". How about some 300,000-400,000 men from Afrika, the men and vehicles from falaise pocket, the several pockets in Russia. 300,000 from Stalingrad. The list is endless.
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