This scenario does have possibilities. Without Italy in the war there is essentially no Mediterranian theater to speak of. However, following France's fall (which assumedly would still happen) what does Britain do with the Italian - Greek problem? Does Italy still continue their campaign against that nation? If so, does Britain get involved?
This leads back to Italy entering the war only later than originally occured. It forces a later Balkans campaign by Germany which, in turn, forces a delay of the Russian invasion into 1942.
With everything pushed back a year, the US would be in far better shape to enter the war in 1943 rather than 42 (41 really doesn't count seeing as how it was some 24 days....)
The Soviets still get hammered, just a year late.