I have to disagree (agree) with some points.

US Land Based Air Power would have been useless. Their effective range might cover halfway to Hawaii. Thats why carriers were so important in the PTO. Land based aircraft didnt have the range. They couldnt island hop (except where the Islands were much closer together). Harry Turtledove has a work of fiction on the matter (a novel) about WWII Alternative History. In it, the Japanese sink 2 of the 3 carriers i believe AND invade Hawaii. The US Forces are captured as the Jungle on the Islands cant sustain people. In his book, its just a protracted War with the US eventually able to build up more aircraft carriers and retake the Islands after a very bloody and costly war.

However, i think things would have been very different. The US wouldnt have been able to aid Russia or the UK as it would have more pressing concerns to deal with. Midway etc would all fall into Japanese hands, along with a small amount of oil. Potentially, i could see the PTO turning into a stalemate, esp if the Japs decide to land in Hawaii and secure it for themselves.

Nevertheless, the loss of the Carriers would have been a MAJOR set back and a huge boost in all aspects for the Japanese, if not just by delaying their eventual defeat. But yes, it does make you wonder. It would allow the Japanese time to take out Australia and NZ and control their supplies, and present another 'Island' for the US to have to invade.

Either way you look at it, it really just means thousands of more lives would be lost by both sides.

__________________