Not entirely, as Leningrad dealt with a little more then just a minimal force and the Push to Moscow was delayed.....

But as you yourself say " All those things actually happened " should be enough to prove that Russia would not have fallen

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The war against Russia will be such that it cannot be conducted in a knightly fashion. This struggle is one of ideologies and racial differences and will have to be conducted with unprecedented, unmerciful and unrelenting harshness. -Adolf Hitler