Hmmm...I still think Japan would have attacked US bases in the Pacific. They would have realized that the US would have jumped into the war at some point. Instead of a Pearl-Harbor Raid, I imagine they would have landed troops at Midway and Pearl instead, with the US having a weak Navy in the Pacific (if it was in the Atlantic) which would definitely help Japan secure those raw materials it needed so badly while, at the same time, eliminating positions of threat to its expanding borders.

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