hold on!

in case malta was captured axis would have much more resources in africa. that's for sure (just look at the dramatic figures of the convoys sunk).

BUT that's not enough! in egypt the british still had much more MEN and PLANES. axis convoys could not solve planes shortage! (just read rommel diaries)

the luftwaffe situation was critical and most air resources were fighting in the eastern front. Be sure that mr.H would never divert them to africa!!

IMHO u can't even imagine airborne operations when your enemy is in full control of the skies.

Moreover, remember that egypt was supplied via cape of good hope and not via mediterrenean, this means that the capture of malta would not damage supplies to egypt.

So that, i think that with malta secured, axis chances in africa were 50%, without malta chances were 0%

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If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons
- Winston Churchill