All true, sir. In desperation, the Japanese even resorted to using barges to try to get fresh troops and supplies to the island.

The US did fare better eventually. But based on Gen. Vandegrift's book, there were moments he felt that the situation on the island was so fluid, it could've went either way. In one battle, the Japanese had three separate prongs to attack the Marines entrenched on the ridge, river and around the air field. This attacks could've succeeded in taking the air field but for faulty coordination due to lack of reliable communications. The result was a massacre for the Japanese because their offensive became piece meal. After this, things generally went downhill for the Japanese. To make a long story short, The Marines used Guadalcanal to suck Japanese troops, planes and ships into a bottomless pit.

But I respectfully disagree that a Japanese victory on the island is doubtful. If the Japanese attack on Edson Ridge had succeeded, the Marines would've lost Henderson Field. Without the air strip, Zeroes from Rabaul would've lorded it over the Marines, even if the Zeroes had to take a 1,800-km round trip.

If I remember correctly, (I have to find that book again!) at the beginning of the campaign, the US Navy had to leave the Marines without unloading all the Division's supplies (including a bulldozer to complete the airstrip) because of the threat of air and sea attack. Fortunately, the Marines were able to subsist on the captured Japanese stocks, and use the Japanese bulldozer and construction gear. But the Marines had only enough food for roughly two to three weeks, and that only by cutting rations by a third.

ONe point to remember, the Japanese had constructed the air strip by beginning on two ends. The air strip was unfinished at the middle. Without the captured Japanese bulldozer, the US wouldn't have been able to complete the airstrip.

That's in Vandegrift's book. I also had a talk with a US vet who was in Guadalcanal. (After the war, this vet also settled in the Philippines. I met him through his youngest son, a buddy of mine in college.) He worked and defended the air strip. That's what he said, too (aside from the rats when the Japanese had successfully hit a food dump with artillery.)

To get back on track, the US actually had an iffy position at the beginning of the campaign. For instance, if the Japanese naval force under Mikawa had known that the US Navy had left the Marines transport ships unprotected, the Marines would've been in deep trouble. ONly as the campaign lenghtened did Japanese strength waned. So if the Japanese had succeeded in taking out the transports during the first few days of the Marine landings or neutralizing Henderson Field during the attack on Edson Ridge, the Marines would've lost in Guadalcanal. Witout that Japanese bulldozer, the airstrip couldn't be completed. Just to cite a few instances. That's why I think a Japanese victory there was possible.