Reading through all the posts about the PTO had led me to pose this question:

What if the initial Japanese strikes at Hawaii succeed but the ones aimed at the Philippines didn't. The Pearl Harbor and Clark and Cavite strikes were just hours apart despite the difference in dates, December 7 and 8. The difference was due to the international dateline.

A failure at Clark would mean leaving an intact US Army Air Corps in the Far East, an organization which had the largest concentration of B-17 bombers outside of the continental US.

How would this affect the course of the war in the PTO?


This is my idea. With a virtually intact air force, a Japanese invasion of the main island of Luzon would've been a very iffy thing. Also, the continued basing of the bombers would've given the US a long range punch to interdict SLOC's. With the air cover, Admiral Hart's Asiatic Fleet would've been more effective and could've been used to attack Japanese naval targets once spotted. Supplies would not have been an immediate problem. The US had a Naval Yard in Cavite and a major air base at Clark.

With Cavite active, US submarines could've ranged further and earlier into Japanese sea routes, thus impeding further Japanese expansion.

The survival of Clark Field on December 8 would make it easier for the US to risk sending a convoy to the Philippines in early 1942. Unfortunately, such an action would entail that the US would concentrate more on the Pacific instead of Europe because the US would be reinforcing a US territory that's actually holding and succeeding against the Japanese instead of a UK reeling from being kicked out of the European continent.