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Originally Posted by Roddoss72
The Japanese would no be wandering around the "Wilderness" as you smuggly assume, they go after strategic targets like the Tran-Siberian railway and key ports and industries. And not trying to occupy all of the Siberia. The Imperial Japanese Navy would wip out the Soviet Pacific Fleet, bombard ports by naval and aerial means, transport Imperial Marines onto the mainland and act as a line of communication and supply to land based troops. Yes the Soviets could give ground but eventually they would have to engage Japanese forces to retake lost territory.
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I think a look at a map is necessary here. The Japanese as I have pointed out were able to barely sustain one division in a static defense at Nomohan about 300 miles from a railhead. How are they going to sustain any worthwhile force 600 to 1000 miles from their supply bases? There are no roads worth mentioning (at Nomohan they improvised a dirt one that was barely sustainable and that was over just steppe. When you throw in rivers or rougher terrain it ain't happening).
The Soviet Pacific Fleet is basically a non-entity. Japan has nothing to fight at sea with the Soviets. The same goes for attacking bases or land targets. There is little in the way of targets within range of a naval strike. Also, there is no such thing as "Imperial Marines." The only infantry-like forces the Japanese Navy has are a handful of Special Naval Landing Forces which are battalion sized landing units of sailors seconded to be infantry.
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Originally Posted by Roddoss72
So, if my understanding is that you consideration of my senario is that the Soviet Union could still carry the day with no help from anyone facing a two front war which involves approximately 400 divisions, no transference of any of its forces east of the Urals to help in the west, while in the first 6 months of the war the Soviets lost 3.5 million men in the west alone, and most likely a further 2 million in the east, your faith in the Soviet Union is impressive. Oh one salient fact in this senario Marshal Georgi Zhukov would remain in the east with his Far Eastern Front.
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The Soviets would have been fully aware of Japanese preparations for a conflict. First, they would be able to see the build up of troops in Manchuria. Second their spy network was excellent. So, they would be able to react in good time to a Japanese offensive. Whether Zhukov stays in the Far East or not would make little difference really so I don't see where you are going with that. He is only one of a number of reasonably competent generals and marshalls that the Soviets had.
My "faith" in the Soviets versus the Japanese is based on the multiple combats that the two had in border clashes in the late 30's. Japan consistantly lost everyone with heavy casualties. They lost ground and had to conceed to Soviet demands each time. That is not much of a track record to base certain victory on.
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Originally Posted by Roddoss72
On one more point you are always throwing impressive facts and figures my way to defeat me, so answer me this HOW MANY T-34/76 were in the East as of 22nd June 1941. I read your link, you state the Soviet would have 50 divisions, i mentioned Japan attacking with 107 divisions, slightly outnumbered don't you think.
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I will look up the T34/76 number. But, even older BT series and T 26 etc tanks are more than a match for the Japanese. Also, of the 107 divisions you speculate the Japanese can muster I doubt the number. First, there is the issue of logistics. Could Japan sustain that number in Manchuria? Probably not. Second, how many of those are "A" or "B" divisions versus static "C" divisions that made up the bulk of the Japanese army historically. Most of the time the A and B divisions numbered about 10 to 20 at most of their military. These are the shock divisions that did the bulk of the fighting. The C units were not offensively capable.
You might also want to look at the terrain the Japanese would be fighting on in many cases. It is really, really bad ground to assault across.