Here is my two cents at the moment.
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My "faith" in the Soviets versus the Japanese is based on the multiple combats that the two had in border clashes in the late 30's. Japan consistantly lost everyone with heavy casualties. They lost ground and had to conceed to Soviet demands each time. That is not much of a track record to base certain victory on.
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1) Just like to remind you that Russia lost a war to Poland.
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The Japnese were a tropical people in comparison to the European powers. They had NO winter clothing to support the climate of Russia.
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2) It snows in Japan, and is not considered tropical by any stretch of the imagination.