Quote:
Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner
I did read your posts. First, the entire Japanese army cannot participate in this offensive or any offensive any more than the entire German, US, Russian, or any other nation's military could. If all the Japanese have is 42 divisions probably less than half will be participants at best.
Second, the above still begs the question: What's in it for the Japanese? Giving the Germans time and the possibility of conqueroring the western portion of Russia? That may be great for the Germans but it is a really raw deal for the Japanese.
As for the air war: Remember, during the Nomohan incident the 2nd Air Army of the Imperial Army was all but destroyed. It literally was decimated. Of the approxmately 200 aircraft it had in service about three quarters were lost during that operation with no replacements. Yes, the Soviets lost about double that of the Japanese but they made good their losses. I would not count on the Japanese air forces to dominate this airspace anytime soon after the war started.
But, in any case, it still comes back to what is the motivation for the Japanese to invade? How does it benefit them?
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So if we go by your assumption, who would attack Japan ?, i mean it who ?, the Americans !, not on in this thread as no US involement in WWII, China doubt it, no naval or air assets to launch an invasion. So Japan can and does deploy those 45 Divisions into the Soviet Union and over time builds up to 107 division, this is with the approximate 100+ home divisions. With the entire Eastern Soviet forces tied down troop movements west would be negated.
And with no reinforcements coming from east of the Urals the German and Axis forces would be in a far better position to push the Soviets into either an Armistice, or outright surrender, plus this would affect supply now we have the Soviet Industry having to supply two fronts, and as i said the Soviets get no help from anyone.
Yes the Nomohan incident had an effect, but in my senario which you ignore repeatedly, the Soviets in the East face the combined forces of Land based Imperial Japanese Naval and Army Air Forces and those based on the 6 to 8 Aircraft Carriers of the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk and those other units on Sakhalin and Kurile Island. Your faith in the Eastern Soviet Red Airforce is amazing to handle several thousand aircraft including the Mitsubishi Zero, has the Soviets at the time of 22nd June got anything comparible to the Zero.
And onto the last statement, The expansion of the Japanese Empire. Enought Said.