If Japan had not attacked Pearl Harbor, they would have continue southward and westward. I don't see anything that would stop them, The U.S. would reinforce the Philippines, but do nothing until the Japanese chose to attack. That would be the conundrum for them. To attack any U.S. territory would be to declare war against America. To by-pass those territories would leave threats in strategic positions.

The big problem is that most of the assets they desired, were not in a format or location to do them any good without extensive time to set up a supply system. To do everything required to continue, they would have needed to appease the U.S. at every turn, short of stopping their progress. I do not see this fitting their ego. They consider themselves to be on a crusade. The long term ramifications would not deter them because they would not believe that the lower beings mongrels like the Americans could oppose their superior will.

The problem is that logistics is one thing. The psychology of the people involved is a totally different animal. Nothing that the Japanese could do would allow them to escape their final destiny.

Now if they had a totally different leadership, they might have been more able to avoid some of the major screw-ups that they made. I think that if they had taken only selective parts of China and avoided countries that had no strategic or material wealth, they could have made better gains. Doing it with the right diplomacy and timing, they could have avoided doing combat with both America and Russia. At least until they were in a more secure position to counter most attacks.

The catch on this, is that eventually, they would have to take the Philippines. It is too valuable of a strategic asset to leave alone.

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