More to the point with the original premise is the US State Department's (and US) position on negotiations with Japan known as "Hull's four points"

The Four Principles enunciated by U.S. Secretary of State Hull as a basis for negotiation with Japan:

1. Respect for the territorial integrity and the sovereignty of each and all nations.

2. Support of the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

3. Support of the principle of equality, including equality of commercial opportunity.

4. Non-disturbance of the status quo in the Pacific except as the status quo may be altered by peaceful means.

By this standard, Japan still faces a massive US embargo that will cripple their economy, arms shipments to China, the USSR, and other nations in the Pacific realm, a continued build up of US military infrastructure and capacity as well as diplomatic pressure to end hostilities with (in this case) the USSR.

And, the problem of British and Dutch embargos that would be a wholly seperate issue have not been addressed. If Japan invades the USSR their whole (note that) WHOLE economy crashes into a massive depression in under six (6!) months.
With, as this scenario as proposed, the entire Imperial Army and Navy engaged in a war with the Soviets and the quickly looming prospect of their home economy collapsing into ruin what do the Japanese do? They have nothing to use militarily to attack the US, Britain, or the DEI it is committed to a fight with the Soviets.
Japan is doomed and about to be ruined.

Oh, one might note that the Imperial Japansese Navy of the period was incapable of using aerial directed shore bombardment from ships. The system and technique did not exist in their doctrine. While ships can provide self-directed fire they cannot use forward observers on the ground on in aircraft for this purpose.