I should keep a list of forums were this has been raised a dozen times before.

Italy gets to sell the Germans its industrial and agricultural products for top Lira prices. Ditto for imports around the British blockade. Its a sellers market.

Britian goes nuts trying to shut off these nuetral conduits, Turkey, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, USSR. Of course one by one they lost their nuetrality in the actual war. In part this was to diplomatic miscalculation by the British leaders, tho there many other reasons. Italy will come under the same pressure.

As the war unreels the Italians will eithr lean towards the German or Britian. Remaining strictly nuetral will be extrodinarily difficult. Either the aid from italy to Germany will gradually increase, or it will decline. Depends on how internal Italian politics develop.

Intially this favors Germany slightly. No half Front in the Med. draining off resources, plus resources via the nuetral conduit. What happens after 1942 depends on which way Italy decides to move.

The Italian military has a portion of its equipment replaced with up to date models. Fighter aircraft, howitzers, AT guns, trucks, armored vehicals are all improved. I'm not sure if Facist party politics allow any real improvement in military leadership.

Without a Med front the British & US will have to contenplate other ways to strike back at Germany. Perhaps a invasion of Scandinavia? A accelerated bomber offensive? More aid to the USSR? More Britsh resources sent to guard its Asian colonys from Japan?

In 1943 or 44 Italy may decalre for the Allies and the Germans have to contend with a southern front. Or it Italy decalres for Germany then the Germans have to contend with a southern front.

The more likely outcome is Italy survives the war far less damaged and perhaps the Facist party remains in power.

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