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Originally Posted by Carl W Schwamberger
I should keep a list of forums were this has been raised a dozen times before.
Italy gets to sell the Germans its industrial and agricultural products for top Lira prices. Ditto for imports around the British blockade. Its a sellers market.
Britian goes nuts trying to shut off these nuetral conduits, Turkey, Italy, Yugoslavia, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, USSR. Of course one by one they lost their nuetrality in the actual war. In part this was to diplomatic miscalculation by the British leaders, tho there many other reasons. Italy will come under the same pressure.
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Unlikely. Except for Russia, the rest have problems with geography. Let's say Italy does sell to the Germans trade that is otherwise blocked. That's fine until you hit whatever the British deem "war materials." As Britain controls access to the Mediterrainian it is all-to-easy for them to declare a blockade and by law of the sea and the laws of war they have the right to stop and search merchant ships entering the blockade zone.
Knowing the Brits, they will push this every inch of the way they can and beyond likely really pissing off Italy in the process.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl W Schwamberger
As the war unreels the Italians will eithr lean towards the German or Britian. Remaining strictly nuetral will be extrodinarily difficult. Either the aid from italy to Germany will gradually increase, or it will decline. Depends on how internal Italian politics develop.
Intially this favors Germany slightly. No half Front in the Med. draining off resources, plus resources via the nuetral conduit. What happens after 1942 depends on which way Italy decides to move.
The Italian military has a portion of its equipment replaced with up to date models. Fighter aircraft, howitzers, AT guns, trucks, armored vehicals are all improved. I'm not sure if Facist party politics allow any real improvement in military leadership.
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This makes sense from a political stand point if you take a long term view to what's going on. Sit back let Germany either win or lose their war before taking action. Mussolini might have survived into the 60's much like Franco did.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl W Schwamberger
Without a Med front the British & US will have to contenplate other ways to strike back at Germany. Perhaps a invasion of Scandinavia? A accelerated bomber offensive? More aid to the USSR? More Britsh resources sent to guard its Asian colonys from Japan?
In 1943 or 44 Italy may decalre for the Allies and the Germans have to contend with a southern front. Or it Italy decalres for Germany then the Germans have to contend with a southern front.
The more likely outcome is Italy survives the war far less damaged and perhaps the Facist party remains in power.
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The loss of the Mediterrainian front works bigtime to German's benefit. As a land power they are now really faced with only two fronts: Britain and the US in the West as seapowers and Russia in the East as a land power. Of course, this in turn, works to Britain's advantage earlier in the war. They have no African front and can put more troops into the Far East, India and at home. The BoB is going to work more to their favor without the Italian "distraction."
With more troops in Malaysia and India these might not fall to the Japanese. An extra division or two or a couple more tank brigades could have made a huge difference on the ground. Hurricanes and possibly even Spitfires would have helped in the air.
Something to think about definitely.