The Axis, on the other hand, ran out of tungsten in...1944? 1943? The United States had over 50% of the world's total munitions output. And nothing here stops the USA from developing the Atom Bomb in 1945.

The war would take longer. There would be more deaths. But chance still favors the Allies. Though it is possible to conceive of an Axis win, the same way it's conceivable for a nation to be saved twice by a freak storm (Kamikaze).