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Originally Posted by Devilsadvocate
This is an insightful comment. The Japanese economy was virtually wrecked by early 1945 by the US submarine offensive. The strategic bombing offensive had not really begun to affect what little was left of the economy until spring of 1945. But the important thing to note here is that absolutely none of Truman's advisers, even as late as June or July were willing to venture even a guess as to when the Japanese would be forced to lay down their arms because of economic failure. It was essentially irrelevant to the Japanese generals that civilians were starving and the arms industries were withering away.
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One must also remember the source. The airforce was hardly likely to belittle the effects of strategic bombing especially in an environment of vastly reduced military spending.
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This is where so much confusion over the casualty estimates originated. The original estimates were based on the original intelligence estimates of what Japanese forces would be on hand to oppose Operation Olympic. As the months passed American intelligence continually increased their estimates of the numbers of troops and kamikazes the Japanese would be able to deploy in the defense of Kyushu. Obviously, the more opposing troops and kamikazes, the higher the potential number of casualties. So anyone who wants to make a case for or against the invasion (or use of the bomb) can enhance his argument by picking a casualty figure from early or late in the planning process. Nimitz and King, who had originally supported the invasion of Japan, finally withdrew that support as a result of the increased potential for high casualties.
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There are indeed indications that Olympus would probably have been called off. US intelligence was starting to pick up pretty clear indications that the Japanese had guessed correctly as to where the invasion would take place and were preparing significant defenses there. If Olympic gets canceled then it's spring before the US can launch another invasion. However none of this was available to the decision makers at the time and so it is not reasonable to criticize their decision based on it. In either case a lot more Japanese civilians and military would have died and more US military. As a clue to what the US thought casualties would be like. Last I heard the US military was still issuing purple hearts minted due to anticipated casualties from Olympus.