Quote:
Originally Posted by Devilsadvocate
The original Japanese Army plan for the "Strike South" scenario omitted the invasion of the Philippines, however, the Japanese Navy, pointed out that the Luzon Straits constituted a "choke point" through which shipments of oil from the NEI must pass to reach Japanese refineries. It would have been possible for the US to use it's possession of the Philippines to again cut off oil shipments to Japan, so the seizure of the Philippines was seen as necessary to exploit to capture of NEI oil resources.
The only problem with this reasoning is it ignores the fact that, for the US, the Philippines were far down on it's list of strategic priorities in early 1942. The strategic war plans of the US had always assumed that there was a fair chance that the Philippines would be captured by Japan and that a campaign would have to be fought to recapture them at some point. The world situation as it developed in 1940-41, simply reinforced this concept, and it was almost a pre-conceived notion for US planning staffs, by then that the Philippines could not be saved.
The most likely reaction to any perceived success in delaying the Japanese capture of the Philippines would not have been the reinforcement of this temporary success, but to use the time bought for the creation of some defensive line further south which would have had a more realistic chance of stopping the Japanese advance short of the NEI oil resources. If I remember correctly, this possibility was even discussed hypothetically by US war planners, and it was Eisenhower who recommended such a strategy, if it became feasible.
|
Oh, I certainly agree with you on the drawback of my scenario.
However, as I've pointed out, I played loosely with the historical parameters.
I add a political dimension here. The US had never lost US land before to a foreign power. And if Mac had obeyed his side of the plan and if he could show the American public that he was successful in holding the Japanese at bay, the administration would court political suicide if reinforcements, even token reinforcements, are not sent to help Mac and his troops recover lost ground in a local offensive.
I'd even pair this with a defensive line further south. If Mac is still successfully holding out when that defensive line is established, reinforcements would be forthcoming and a good offensive counter punch would be surely mounted.
The more I look at this, Mac has to hold out longer first before being able to go on the offensive. And the only way, at least for me, would be for him and his forces to last until the arrival of the rainy season which starts in June. Of course, this supposes that Mac had followed the prewar plan. I have more in mind but I'd stop here so I can learn what you guys think.