formerjughead, thanks for your comments,

dabrob you have put quite a lot of thought into this.

More that a few hours of research too.

The only problem is that Japans ground forces and logistics chain were committed to Maylasia, Singapore and the Phillipines.

That is why I suggest that Luzon, Guam, Wake and the Gilberts be left behind to "wither on the vine" well behind new Japanese frontlines.

Bottom line is that if Japan thought that a ground invasion of Hawaii was feasible they would have done it.

True enough but if that is really your "only history is allowed" point of view, why is it that you read or post to a "What IF" discussion board ?

AND If they thought a ground invasion of the Hawaiian Islands was feasible why didn't they just invade the mainland US?

California had lots of oil but was already attached to an industrial giant of a country called America which (at least back then) seemed to like having it around.

Not so much nowadays.

OTOH the NEI was awash with oil, was closer to Japan and had a motherland just taken over by Japan's allie, Germany. The NEIs seem a more rational choise to me. Invading Hawaii (and capturing 500,000 hostages) is just a way of getting peacetable "bargining chips" to convince American to agree to an early ceasefire (before the Essex class carriers arrive) and a short Pacific war.

Bottom line is that Pearl Harbor was beyond their capabilities to support and there is no way Japan could have held the islands.

If you had actually read my previous postings you would know that I do NOT intend that my ATL Japanese will keep Hawaii but rather will try to trade it quickly back to American in exchange for a short Pacific War and ownership of the NEI's oil.

IF they would have invaded and diverterted resources to capturing and defending Hawaii then the war would have been over in late 1943 or early 1944 and Berlin would have gotten "Fatman" and Heidleberg would have gotten "Littleboy".

I disagree but that matters little to the topic of discussion here.

Logistics.........you have to able to support your forces on the ground.

Reading ........ I have already stated that I can free up 1,680,000 tons of Japanes shipping and 49 otherwise idled tankers to provide logistical support for an ATL Japanese short/medium term effort against Hawaii.