Hitler dies early: what of Mussolini?

Idly wondered about this today: Had Hitler for whatever reason died around, say, 1942 -- how would the end have worked out for Mussolini ?

Italy might not have been occupied by the Germans. Still seems like Churchill's instinct would have led him to going after Italy first -- would Mussolini have staged a Berlin-bunker act of his own (doesn't seem likely)?

Cheers

BW

 

You forget Mussolini was ousted from government in mid 1943 and the Badoglio government that replaced him asked for peace (Cassibile treaty) the death of Hitler is not likely to change that and could actually make it happen sooner.
So he could be out of the picture, it all depends from who Hitler's successors are, if the Army takes the upper hand we could have the war in Europe end in 1943, if the Nazi and SS take control the historical scenario (liberation by Skorzeny and RSI puppet government) is still possible.

 

You are correct -- I forgot that Mussolini was removed by his own countrymen. Perhaps he would have ended up on trial by the Italians.

On the RSI -- do you know if Mussolini exercised much influence on matters of Italian sovereignty (excepting the deployment of RSI divisions with the German forces), or was he mainly there as a figurehead ?

Cheers

BW

 

Well, the Italian population had been hating on Mussolini for a while, and just the threat of allied invasion was enough to get him thrown out.

The death of Hitler could possibly do the exact same thing; the Italian government was probably afraid of German intervention if they deposed Mussolini. Hitler's successor would most likely then intervene anyway, so the situation would be similar to history, except that the Italian army would have more of a foothold on their own country, seeing as how the Germans did not really have a significant presence in 1942.

Having Italy against the Germans forces the Germans to do something, because the Italian navy was the only real Axis presence in the Mediterranean, and, in 1942, Rommel was still fighting a losing battle in Africa. Italy's withdrawal would leave Germany only with Yugoslavian and Greek ports, but no ships to put in them.

One thing I don't know: after the Afrika Korps arrival, about six months later, how many Italian troops were left in Africa?

A Fascist State tends to suggest complete control of the state by the leader, but I can't say for sure, I have no actual evidence of such by Mussolini.

 

IMO you are confusing your actors, Mussolini was the Italian government, 1943 Italy still was a monarchy, the bloodless events that removed Mussolini from power was not even technically a "coup" as the king had retained the legal right to revoke Mussolini's mandate though he could/would not have done it until his popularity had taken a blow due to military reverses.
To state that "the Italian population had been hating on Mussolini for a while" is incorrect, many were certainly disillusioned with fascism but hate is too strong a word to describe it, that came later with the RSI if at all, the overthrow of Mussolini was orchestrated from the top when it became apparent to the military and the king that the war was lost and Mussolini was an obstacle to peace negotiations.
Germany had no critical need for naval superiority in the Med, the only strategic issues there was preventing the Allies from opening a Black Sea Lend Lease route, and that was unfeasible as long as Germany held the Crimea, and preventing an invasion of the "soft underbelly" which I see no reason would have achieved better results than the historical Italian campaign did and could not happen until the Allies achieved air superiority in ealy 1943.
The North African campaign was a mostly Italian affair up to Tunisia (1943) if you consider the number of troops, the motorized Germans were Rommel's spearhead but they relied on the more numerous Italian forces for support and logistics and in most 1941/42 battles the numbers of Italian and German tanks available to Rommel were pretty close though the German mediums were a lot better than anything the Italians could field.

 

Without Hitlers leadership, Germany would collapse to the allies faster than anticipated and eventually world war 2 would be over before people even thought that it would be

 

Don´t forget about Göring,Himmler,Bormann and Göbbels....if Germany
was still "winning" like early 1942, it might still be too tempting for the Wehrmact Generals to try to continue war instead of looking for peace with the West/East. But who was to lead?

 

Italy wouldn't be able to do crap if Germany died off, and I think that they would get a fascist to find them to lead =p

 

Kai's post had nothing to do with Italy or Italy taking the lead.

I think Italy would have rather tried for Peace then continued fighting, especially if Germany started to lean that way too.

 

And as the notion of unconditional surrender was pushed out until 1943 then the idea of all going down together without any real choice is also not on the table as yet. So Kai has a more likely what if in this as in who would lead...Not necessary I suppose in the order history would have us believe a Hitler succession would be I would think.

 

I was just going to mention that little tid-bit, the Casablanca Conference "unconditional surrender" statement. With Hitler dead before Jan. 1943, that may not have been the position taken. It may have been less than that, but not as "odd" as the end of WW1 with a cease-fire and then so-called negotiations which really were nothing of the sort. Italy managed to side-step the "unconditional" part by arresting Mussolini and throwing the Fascists out of power, as stipulated in the declaration.

 

To save time, money, and blood, the Allies would probablly be willing to negotiate a armisitce with italy. The critical point would be the halt in resources from italy to Germany. Italy did not contribute much to Germanys war machine, but the Allies would demand a complete closure of trade. So no Italian made aircraft parts or artillery components for Gemany, and no smuggling rubber or rare alloys via Italy.

How it actually worked out would depend on the attitude of the German leaders. One big question is what heppens to the italian army and airforces in the east and the Blakans. In 1942 those were intact and technically undefeated. Perhaps the Italians would not seriously negotiate until 1943, after the disasters in the Don & Volga River basins, and the Axis defeats in Africa. In other words the agreements between the italians and Allies come in March or May rather than August or September.

 

I would think that italy and mussolinni would have scampled over to the Allies side,if hitler dies very early in the war. Half of the germans generals wanted hitler dead eraly ,so they can make peace with the allies. mussolinni had already been thinking of turning towards the Allies after Hitler always belittle the itaalians all the time,so this would have been the chance for mussolinni to swop sides too the allies.