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German Victory: Thousand Year Reich's Alt. Op. Plan

Discussion in 'What If - Other' started by Desert Journeyman, Aug 16, 2001.

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  1. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    In my post I stated at the beginning of the war. The AFV's are not listed in "World War II, by the Numbers" by John Ellis, which has listings for Hungarian, New Zealand, even Finnish conversions, so Im not convinced as to their existance. IAR's didnt go into action until well into 1942. The IAR sucked hard by 42 standards. They made 180 of them. The IAR's engine was imported IIRC. They made 4,100 MG's between '40-'45. Whoopee. About the only they could build was ammo, and even that, not fast enough.
    I'm in no way saying they were pussies. They were some fierce fighters at the odds they usually fought. They just dont have the numbers of men and equipment to fight the Sov's without some major backing, an amount an attacked Germany could ill afford.
     
  2. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    You have changed your arguments. At first, the main goal of your statements was proving the ineptitude and inadequacy of Antonescu's armies.

    The information concerning Rumania's tank destroyer model originates from TANKS!, a fairly reputable website. The design is not at all dissimilar to Hungarian models of the era.

    That Rumania could consider building the IAR at all - a design largely domestic - would seem to indicate, at the very least, a fairly impressive effort and stock of resources on their part.

    The issue isn't how many machine guns were produced, but that they could consider at all producing them. I also question that number, since 'Strategy & Tactics' would probably not list figures quite so insignifigant.

    Rumania could, at the very least, hold back a Soviet assault with at least Finnish par, considering that Bucharesti had far more in the way of a regular army and equipment to mass in the path of Stalin's red columns. No doubt Italy would feel compelled to send relief in small part besides.
     
  3. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    I have not changed my argument. Romania was a paper tiger. Had she faced the Soviet Union virtually alone in 1942, with the Germans preoccupied(the auspice for the attack), she would have been crushed in a matter of weeks from the simple fact Romanian soldiers would be outnumbered by a factor of at least 5 in manpower, 10 in tanks, and 10 in aircraft, if the Soviets put only 30% of their forces on the Romanian front.
    During Barbarossa, the Romanian formations advanced the least distance of any Axis units due to their lack of transport. The Romanian 4th Army covered the most ground of any of the Romanian units, about 100 miles by Aug 25, '41, laying siege to Odessa. Most German units had covered over 300 miles by this date, some nearly 500 miles. The German 20th and 11th Armies punched large holes in the Soviet lines massed on the border, the Romanians moving along on foot behind the quickly advancing German columns, capturing pockets of resistance. By October '41 the German 11th army had reached the Crimea, while the 4th Rom army was mopping up Russian resistance north of Odessa, nearly 200 miles from the front. The 3rd Rom. was still in Bessarbia. The 2 Rom. Armies contain less than 500,000 men.
    The Romanians would under Soviet attack, have to heavily defend the Black Sea coastal plain as both Ploesti,Constanta and Bucharest are located on this 100 mile strip of relatively flat(vast majority is under 300' elevation) ground that runs from south of the Danube to well east of Odessa. The only natural defensive positions are the Rivers Prutul and the Danube. The Soviets will attempt to force the Danube with their greater number of artillery pieces and air superiority providing support. The river crossing would be bloody but likely the Soviets can afford the butcher bill. If the Soviets are lucky and quickly take Galatz or Ismail(remember the USSR has the one of largest para forces on Earth at this point) and manage to capture or rebuild a bridge quickly they will be in Bucharest in a week. The Romanians have two problems A) Troops bypassed at the border, would lack transport to follow motorized Red Army troops. Red Army troops outnumbering the Roms. should be able to hold supply lines, at least for a short while. B) Smaller Romanian army would prohibit defence in depth against the Bear, once a breach in the initial line was made it would be hard for them to plug.
    The tableland beyond the River Prutul would be death to the Rom. army with such an inferiority in tanks and aircraft. This land closely resembles Kansas in topography and vegetation, except for a 20 mile wide finger of forested low hills stretching south from Galatz for about 40 miles along the east bank of the Danube, much different than winter in Finland. In this open terrain more mobile, heavily equipped Soviet units would run roughshod over Romanian units. The only chance for any Romanian units survival would be to retreat into the mountains sacrificing their oil, capital, and bulk of their population to Soviet occupation. At this point its over, Ceausescu is set in power, forms a Communist government and Romanians fight over Romania, leaving the Soviets to fight the Germans.
     
  4. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    Now you are misinterpreting my argument.

    We assume German and Western aid is to be immediately forthcoming in halting a Soviet advace as far east as possible. Meanwhile, even if this is not avaliable, Rumania and Finland would, at least, offer the Russians disproprtionate losses in relation to their gains.
     
  5. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    The Soviet ability to sustain disproprtionate losses is their biggest adavantage in the Great Patriotic War.
     
  6. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    In my opinion a change of operations wouldn't change a thing for the Germans, their production, transport, research and supply problems will hobble them no matter how brilliant their generals are.
    Had a worthwhile War Production committee been formed before the war, linking forward thinking military personell with industry leaders, it would have changed the course of the war. Had this committee forced streamlining of production, as in the US, the German government would build state of the art facilities for private industry, forcing out less productive cottage industry in Germany which persisted the entire war. Reducing the number of different models of equipment, BEFORE the war started would in itself drastically improve German chances. Had this Committee the power to force a change to full wartime economy say in 1940, this again alters the war. Now imagine linking this committee with the German research programs, taking them out of the hands of Nazi political appointee's. The fruits of research would be put into the design pool quickly, efficiently, increasing the pace of improvement. Anti shipping rockets, Infa Red equipment, radar, nuclear, etc programs would most likely bear fruit and/or earlier.
     
  7. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    If Rumanian troops are so unrealiable, and the Soviet juggernaut so powerful, then why did Finland, a nation not even approaching Rumanian fiscal or industrial standards in 1940, hold off the Russians so well during the Winter War?
     
  8. C.Evans

    C.Evans Expert

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    Thats easy enough to answer. The Finns held off the massive Russians easily for several reasons. One big thing that helped the Finns-besides fighting on familiar ground, besides being excellent fighters, was the fact that Junior Russian commanders (at least during this early war period) basically could not think of what to do in a situation, and not have a much higher ranking officer, tell them what to do.

    Kill the head, and the body panics. This is stated in numerous books about the Eastern Front.
     
  9. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    Rumania holds all of those advantages at the least, Carl. My question was rhetorical. :p
     
  10. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    Finland had several HUGE advantages.
    1) Remember that it was called the Winter War. Guess why? Give up? It was fought during the fall and winter within miles of the arctic circle. In dense virgin forests whose nasty terrain, especially in winter, makes triple canopy jungle look inviting. Also, please glance at a map of Finland. It should show at least several hundred lakes dotting face of this relatively tiny country. This doesnt come close to representing how marshy and wet Finland is when it isnt frozen, most of Finland is one big fen. One reason why the Soviets attacked in winter was to avoid the swamps!!!! Counterpoint, most Romanians dwell on its coastal plain, flat cropland that looks a lot like Kansas.

    2)The Finns highest military leaders had ALL served with dinstinction with either the Russian or German forces during WWI. Most had graduated from the academies of either St. Petersburg or Potsdam.

    3)The Germans maintained a close relationship with Finland even between the world wars. Finnish officers were trained in German OT schools, beside German officer candidates. These schools are regarded to be the best on earth at the time, giving Germany some of the brightest officers to see combat. Romanian officers were appointed for political reliability, and for the most part trained indigenously. This relationship meant that the Finns in 1939 were using German infantry techniques, high concentrations of mobile MG's and subMG's is an example, that the rest of the world had yet to adopt.

    4)Finland's other neighbor was Sweden, a country of close kinship with mostly sympathy in its heart for Finland. Romania's neighbors wouldnt piss on it if was on fire, to use one of my favorite euphamism's. Sweden herself sent wargoods, fuel, and other supplies to the Finns, not to mention smuggling them goods from other countries using nuetral Swedish ships. Sweden even accepted most of Finlands children to protect them and relieve the burden of feeding them from Finland. Would Hungary do that for Romania? How about Bulgaria or Poland? I dont think so.

    These are only a few of the many examples proving Finland and Romania are two very different cases.
     
  11. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    1. Northwestern Bessarabia is covered in dense forests and rivers passable only at key fords. This is evidenced by 'Strategy and Tactics' which outlines Rumania attacks into the region shortly after its annexation.

    2. Germany and Italy both would lend Rumania aid. While Finland offered little, Rumania is Germany's key source of patroleum. It is doubtful the Western allies would go so far as to supply Germany even during a war with the Soviets, especially early on when the Soviets have yet to break through Rumania.

    3. Rumania had at least one Mountain Corps, one Royal Guards division, one Frontier division, and one German-trained armored division. These were all considered to be "crack". All divisions in the Rumanian Army were equipped with a company of Czech anti-tank guns, following German doctrine.

    4. The IAR-80 is far superior to the F2A, with which Finland fought its war. The German Bf109, Fw190, and Ju87 will lend themselves heavily to the Rumanian war effort.

    5. Germany would provide Rumanian with the PzrKpf III and IV/75 if the need arises, especially when Ploesti begins to find itself endangered. Rumania had at least one true "motorized" division on record.
     
  12. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    For the third or fourth time, the IAR-80 only arrived in 1942, The Finns fought the Winter War in '39. Compare Spitfires built in '39 to models built in '42.
    Italy couldnt supply itself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Germany could and did offer little in the way of Equipment to any of its allies, even less to Romania because of distance and infrastructure problems.
    Dont even make me list the crack units in the Finnish army!!!!!
    Germany only started supply Romania with PIII's and PIV's in '43(after they lost most of their stuff), until then they have junk.
    Whoopity Doo Daa, Romania has 4 or 5 crack divisions, with no trucks, short on MG's and 1940 style AT guns(which denotes 37mm Skoda pieces).
    End analysis Romania is only a small footnote in WWII history. Your OnWar list comparing Romania to the British Commonwealth is dead wrong, considering the amount of men and material those colonies/countries provided the UK. Canada produced more meaningful wargoods than Italy alone. Romania ground up 300,000 peasents then switched sides.
     
  13. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    My legimate argument is based off an article published in a respected military history magazine. Their own research indicates that Germany would never have gained so much or pushed so far without Rumanian aid.

    There is no timeline set for the Soviet invasion. The Soviet Army is still in an effective shambles after reorganization.

    Germany did not offer Rumania much, and it wasn't because of infrastructure issues. It lay on Hitler's personal dislike for Carol and his regimé after their murder of a key Iron Guard leader. Hitler declined to sell them machine tools or trucks, and similarly barred them from purchasing foreign items from firms under German suzerainty. Germany would invest considerably into Rumania's defense, just as they did in Finland's. The fact that Rumania's oil is of such value is an even more convincing fact.

    In a defensive battle, even static infantry can be useful. Rumania did field at least one fully mechanized cavalry division. The Rumanians were armed, at the start of the Barbarossa campaign, with anti-tank guns which the German army recommended for its own use. Hindsight is a poor argument in claiming these were useless prior to the campaign in Russia. Until then, they were highly sought after and rare in even most modern armies.

    Italy can supply Rumania if the issue is a Soviet invasion and not a Second World War in Africa or the Balkans. Especially in the way of heavy artillery, fighter aircraft, and light armored or mechanized vehicles.

    Germany would supply Rumania with the finest war matériel avaliable if it came down to a communist invasion.
     
  14. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    Hitlers dislike for Carol is a very small side issue. Infrastructure is the main reason Romania got less than the other allies. Hungary and the Czechs bordered Germany proper and had many more miles of modern railroad, and paved roads. Shipping a trainload of equipment to Prague or Budapest was far less taxing than to send one to Bucharest. Some Romanian railways are even of different gauge.
    Also the Romanians were not well regarded by the Germans. Whether they were great or not, I dont care. Also the Germans knew that machine tools and such shipped to Romania would be wasted. As stated Romania was a backward nation with a very low literacy rate, and no history of major heavy industries. Sending them much needed machine tools would only be a drop in the bucket towards the amount of infrastructure that would need to be built to support an infant Romanian armaments industry. They lacked modern factories, power plants(without which you have nothing), skilled workers, and everything else you need to produce war material. So as the Fuhrer, give me a reason why you would send Romania tools you desperately need yourself.
    Romania was turned down in Fall/Winter of '39/'40 by the Czech's because all the Pz-38's were already reserved for Germany. Again, had Germany let Romania purchase many of the Pz-38's would Germany have won in France? What the hell good would they have done in Romania? Romania was allowed to purchase some of them from the Germans after the French campiagn, as many as the Germans could afford to lose. The Germans were always so hurting for equipment they couldnt afford to send the Romanians much, not because there was a vendetta.
    Germany would invest in Romania's defence, with Werhmacht troops, not by supporting the Romanian regime.
     
  15. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    The military magazine 'Strategy & Tactics' is in disagreement. According to 'Romania: Forgotten Axis', an article on the topic of Rumania's military contributions during the campaign 'Barbarossa', Rumania was in many vital undertakings held back by Hitler's dislike for Rumania following the Iron Guard incident discussed previously.

    Although I find issue with your information on the Pz38, I can state that this would not have been the only issue at hand. You seem to waive aside the fact that Germany imports its patroleum from Rumania exclusively, and during the war, invested heavily to defend the Ploesti fields, now endangered by Soviet army groups.

    Meanwhile, Rumania possessed a treasury in all cases disproprtionate to its vast and unfortunate dependance on agriculture. The Ploesti fields allowed Bucharesti to make a number of purchases far in excess of what might be theoretically possible for a nation of its status.

    As we have seen before, Rumania went so far as to equip all divisions with Czech-made anti-tank artillery pieces. Yet beyond your argument concerning tankettes and armored vehicles, Rumania attempted to purchase certain domestic production rights, light and heavy machine tools, and motorized vehicles such as trucks and prime movers.

    Hitler barred the Czechs, Swedes, and Swiss from providing such items. Later, he would extend this to occupied France and Hungary, which he did permit to construct certain domestic models of tankette based on the same designs which Czechslovakia nearly provided to Rumania.

    Rumania made a far greater contribution during the war with Russia than did Hungary or even Slovakia. Germany would here be now compelled to support Antonescu with not only heavy artillery and medium tanks, but tools and moulds for machine weapons and modern arms.
     
  16. Popeyesays

    Popeyesays Member

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    AFrican supply problems for Rommel were brought on primarily by the fact that ULTRA and the cracking of Italian codes at the time had all the shipping schedules from Italy to North Africa. When you read the other guy's mail all the time it is easy to have your recon aircraft "stumble" upon the supply convoys.
     
  17. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    1)Romanians(Roms) dont have the skilled workers to operate the machines
    2)No factory exists to house the tool
    3)Not enough power plants run the tool
    4)Roms would be forced to import strategic materials, taking them from German plants
    5)Lack of roads and rails to move materials and finished products to and fro
    I apologize for the earlier post, on rereading the passage it was Pz-35's not 38's that Germany blocked the sale of in '39. In October '40 several Pz-35's and Pz-38's were released for sale to Romania, when they were replaced by German tanks in their respective units. The machine tools and equipment was blocked to keep the stuff flowing to Germany. Every Czech and French vehicle the Germans blocked from the Roms went into combat in a German unit.
     
  18. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    1. Rumania had at least three major factory lines and production centers, not the least of which was able to construct domestic and foreign aircraft during the course of the Second World War. Fw 190s and Bf 109s were later built in Rumania with German aid.

    2. In this case, as you seem to ignore, the Rumanian front is vital to German security and industry, as Ploesti is the single and most readily-avaliable source of petrol.

    3. Rumania could buy neither the plans and rights to production nor the necessary tools to produce armored or motorized vehicles during the war. Yet even by 1943, Germany had regulated some units from service.

    4. Rumania possess iron ore, patroleum, and coal. Within one year, they could at least power major factories. They did posses some tools and power-production during the war. How else cold the IAR have appeared?

    5. Germany could readily afford to send both industrious minds and knowledgeable minds to their Rumanian ally - especially in this circumstance.

    6. Rumania could not even buy rights to certain weapons which they could produce. Hungary made lesser contributions and was given leave to build the Turan. This defies your argument that Germany needed everything for its own defense.
     
  19. talleyrand

    talleyrand Member

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    1. Rumania had at least three major factory lines and production centers, not the least of which was able to construct domestic and foreign aircraft during the course of the Second World War. Fw 190s and Bf 109s were later built in Rumania with German aid.

    Name any German city with a population over 100,000 and I will show you 3 major factory lines. Also, they only built 180 IAR’s with many imported parts. That’s pitiful. Some German and French aircraft were locally assembled/upgraded in Romania, with very few local parts. Some 700 were assembled between April ’41 and early ’44, less than 20 a month.

    2. In this case, as you seem to ignore, the Rumanian front is vital to German security and industry, as Ploesti is the single and most readily available source of petrol.

    Yes, the Romanian front was vital to the Germans. That’s why the Germans and their Hungarian allies would annex Romania and use Wehrmacht troops to keep the place, if prior to ’44 Romania looks like it will fall. The Germans had several different contingency plans drawn up for this eventuality


    3. Rumania could buy neither the plans and rights to production nor the necessary tools to produce armored or motorized vehicles during the war. Yet even by 1943, Germany had regulated some units from service.

    The licensing rights weren’t withheld from Romania just to punish them. Italy attempted to purchase the licensing rights to build Tigers in early ’43. It wasn’t the German government but the Henschel Company who ended Italy’s attempt by charging exorbitant prices for the license fees. The Italians did not have the cash, so no Tigers. These giant fees were charged by all German defense contractors and applied to anyone, thus most German allies chose to produce their own inferior equipment then to copy better German designs. This is one of the major reasons the Germans lost the war, because the Czech, French, Hungarian, and Polish AFV companies kept building obsolete models when they could have been building Panthers.


    4. Rumania possesses iron ore, petroleum, and coal. Within one year, they could at least power major factories. They did posses some tools and power-production during the war. How else cold the IAR have appeared?

    So? To build tanks and aircraft you need magnesium, nickel, copper, rubber, brass, aluminum, paraffin’s, ethylene, manganese, molybdenum, sodium, coke, asbestos, lead and many other raw materials. Does Romania have all or even most of these, plus the infrastructure to bring them to market even near efficiently? I know for a fact that Romania had little coal and a large portion of what they used during the war they imported. To make steel you need coke, a coal derivative. Romania has almost zip for aluminum also. So as I said earlier, Romania would be forced to pull resources out of German plants, to run theirs. Not bloody likely.

    05. Germany could readily afford to send both industrious minds and knowledgeable minds to their Rumanian ally - especially in this circumstance.

    SEE PREVIOUS RESPONSES
    It was better and easier for Germany to bring skilled Romanian workers to Germany, which they did.

    6. Rumania could not even buy rights to certain weapons, which they could produce. Hungary made lesser contributions and was given leave to build the Turan. This defies your argument that Germany needed everything for its own defense.


    1) Hungary’s major AFV producer was Manfred Weiss, a company with which several German firms had stakes in.
    2) Landsverk L-60 went into production in Hungary in the mid-thirties. By 1940 MW had years of production experience, a pool of workers, adequate production facilities, tools, and everything else already in place.
    3) The Turan was a licensed modified copy of the Pz-38 (t) built by CKD/Praga a Czech company, who charged little in the way of fees. The Germans had nothing to do with the deal. The turret and power train were the only major differences. The Hungarians locally built nearly every component, even the entire motor and transmission
     
  20. Desert Journeyman

    Desert Journeyman Member

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    1. The point is, Rumania could build viable combat aircraft which could still perform as well as most other fighters avaliable on the market at the time. While this is not true for dedicated fightercraft or interceptors, it is the case for ground-support or ground-attack aircraft, which is what the IAR-80 was primarily outfitted for.

    2. A German annexation of Rumania is not a contengincy we must consider. The chief question here is the viability of Rumania's army and capabilities. Neither simply cease to be even if Antonescu's regimé does.

    3. According to 'Strategy & Tactics', the rights for licenscing were time and again withheld purposefully, often at Hitler's own insistence.

    4. Rumania could still have aquired the materials, which by then, Italy nor the British would demand. Costs would be far inferrior to those during the Second World War, and therefore, Bucharesti, with large amounts of cash on hand thanks to their oil industry, could afford to make such mass purchases during the short-term.

    5. There were still skilled workers in the Rumanian area. If there was reason to send these to work domestically, they would be regulated to such jobs.

    6. To counter your argument:

    1) By 1939, 80% of Rumania's economy was in German hands. 40% of its agriculture, 20% of its viable industry, and 33% of its total population were siezed when Bessarabia, the southern Dobruja, Wallachia, and Moldavia fell to Soviet, Bulgarian, or Hungarian demands. Yet Rumania's industry, during the war, produced the IAR-80, hundreds of German fighters, and their own tank destroyer late during Barbarossa.

    2) Rumania had been working on the IAR-80 since prior to 1939.

    3) The Turan was a modified copy of Czech tankettes, correct. Yet if it was indeed that cheap, why could Rumania - with vast income from Ploesti and little else to spend it on - not purchase the rights?
     
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