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Barbarossa is well planned & executed, much like the sickle cut was.

Discussion in 'What If - European Theater - Eastern Front & Balka' started by mjölnir, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

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    The operation Silberfuchs in Lapland was not an "Axis" operation but a German one, assisted by the Finnish III Corps (6. and 3. IDs).

    The German force was not a Panzer Corps but AOK Norwegen, which had two Corps: Gebirgskorps Norwegen (2. and 3. Mountain Divisions, two regiments each) and the XXXVI Corps (169. ID, SS-Kampfgruppe Nord and the Finnish 6. ID, a loan from the Finnish III Corps). In addition to that the XXXVI Corps had two detached tank battalions, no more.

    Taking Murmansk was not absolutely necessary in order to cut the RR and block the Lend-Lease - which however did not even exist to the USSR prior the Barbarossa. Taking the White Sea coast would have been enough for that. Murmansk would have been vital for the re-supplies though.

    Lack of tanks was not the problem in the far North. The terrain was very ill-suited for them anyway. The lack of proper or any roads however was. Supplying the advancing troops was a night-mare - especially so, when at the same time the enemy was able to use RR for supplies and troop movements.

    Bombing Leningrad from East-Prussia was possible with refuel stop in Finland on return, like it actually a couple of times happened. That stretched Finland's already compromised neutrality (30.000 soviets and 40.000+ Germans in Finland on 21st June 1941) to the limit.

    Having Germans bombing the soviets from the Finnish airports and/or making a land attack towards Leningrad was a political impossibility as long as Finland had not been attacked first.

    Even the Silberfuchs did not start until the soviets had attacked Finland first and Finland was at war again.
     
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  2. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    You forgot the Polish destroyer Grom sunk in Narvik (and the distance the old He 111 had flown for this), the Polish 10,400 ton troop transport Chrobry (evacuating men from Narvik). the French ships (Bison, etc,)

    On the day Denmark was invaded there were 100 LW landings and takeoffs (to Norway) from the captured airport in Aalborg and Fornebu airport near Oslo was captured by airborne troops and a few Bf 110. Within days all airfields had been captured and seaplanes were also operating in Norway. Again look at the distances involved from Germany. Yet you think it impossible that the Germans in much easier terrain and with much shorter distances (Aalborg-Kiel 188 km and Aalborg-Oslo 332 km Vs. Kirkenes-Murmansk 147 km and Petsamo-Murmansk 97 km).
    But numbers mean little to an Austrich.
     
  3. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    Karjala
    Capturing the RR on the first day by paratroopers, supporting them and relieving them promptly was vital. 2 bloody German division for Murmansk and 2 for Kandalaksha is ridiculous to build roads, bridges, attack fortified positions, etc, Half tracks, Panzer, STUG would have definitely helped in some areas. Half tracks are definitley better transports in difficult conditions than horse drawn carts shown in the video at the bottom of the post.

    The Finnish position of waiting for Soviet shells and bombs in order to justify an offensive and starting it on July 10 did not help at all.
    It is hard to believe that German troops were not trained by Finnish troops before advancing together to Kandalashka, so the Germans were practically useless for that operation.

    Being the northern anchor of Barbarossa, Silberfuchs justified much better planning, preparation, a stronger and better prepared force with much stronger air support.
    The fact that the Soviets were ill prepared and taken completely by suprise in the original advance toward Petsamo was completely wasted by allowing time to reinforce the area.

    Some areas of Norway, Greece, Ukraine, Belorussia, around Leningrad, the Caucasus, around the Dnieper, etc, also had very difficult terrain, but a large, well equipped force can much more easily build roads, bridges, flank defenses, attack fortified positions, stop counter attacks, evacuate the wonded, move supplies, airfields, etc, In Norway they built even a runway on logs in a short time.

    You have probably seen this interesting video, too bad it doesn't have narration:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAfPIXMH1i8

    A Ju 52 with pontoons would be an excellent means to transport troops, equipment, supplies, etc, with myriad lakes and the coast in the area of Silberfuchs.
     
  4. green slime

    green slime Member

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    So now you are auto-investing Petsamo on the first day...

    I see you are still unwilling to actually put your money where your mouth is and present any details of your "well planned and executed plan". Numbers mean very little to someone such as yourself. Never let reality impinge on your fantasy.

    Just have Nazi Space Ships arrive with Panthers where and when needed from the Moon Base.

    I wonder why the Japanese fleet, with their Naval air capable of such extraordinary ranges, elected to sail so close to Pearl Harbour before launching the attack...

    Feel free to cram 500 aircraft into Petsamo on day one. by all means. Have all the needed supplies auto-delivered by space ships while you are at it. No shortage of fuel, bombs or maintenance parts in the far North, no difficulties at all.

    Your Paratroopers have just been slaughtered in Crete (May 1941), together with a large part of the LW Transport so they aren't going to be doing diddly squat, and if they were to try, there is no way even the Finns are going to be able to reach them in time to prevent their utter destruction.

    What was the point of your OP? The rest of the world was just supposed to sit by and go "wow, fantastic, flour-nit the Austrich has cracked it!". You expect some kind of mutual admiration circle?

    And unsupported tanks invade the port cities...
     
  5. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

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    mjölnir:

    There were no soviets to surprise in Petsamo in 1941. It was still part of Finland then.

    The film seems to be some kind of a mix covering all parts of the front in Finland/Karelia - North and South. Some of it was familiar, some not. Unfortunately it does not give a credible picture of the far Northern terrain. In general the more North one goes, the more difficult the terrain gets.

    Think of the terrain towards Murmansk (Platinfuchs) like an endless chain of dragons teeth. That's why the Germans used mules - not because they didn't have lorries.

    And think the terrain towards Kantalahti/Kandalaksha (Polarfuchs) as a mixture of dense forests and swamps - with rivers. The only usable way for tanks/half tracks/anything with wheels was a single, bad and narrow road.

    The Finnish political situation was complicated. On the other hand everybody wanted the destruction of the SU (and Germany to do it - again) and the return of the lost land. On the other hand Finland - as a parliamentary democracy and wanting to remain as one - did not want to ally with Germany nor be officially part of Barbarossa. Therefor an unprovoced attack (as if the Winter War wouldn't have been provocative enough) was out of the question. I admit that that was not the best strategy to win a war...

    The German army then was the best in the World and undefeated. Even if the Finns had offered to train I doubt, that the offer would have been accepted.

    I doubt there had been enough JU 52s, with or without pontoons, to take care of the supplies. Just think of Stalingrad.
     
  6. Sheldrake

    Sheldrake Member

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    Sorry, but the premise is flawed. This assumes that all that was wrong with the German plan was the choice of thrust lines and tempo of the advance. It ignores the real reason for the German failure, which was the assumption that Germany could defeat the Soviet Union without fully mobilising physical or moral componants of force.

    The Germans assumed that Wehrmacht could overwhelm the Red Army in a quick Blitzkreig, without regard for the time and space and woefully underestimating the capabilities of their enemy. They chose to invade Russia with a partially mobilised state, despite the historic examples a of Napoleon and Charles XII

    The Nazi plan for the east based on racial supremacy pushed the often unwilling subjects of Russian rule into fighting for their lives.
     
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  7. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Then there's the minor fact that cutting the railroad from Murmansk or even taking it doesn't cut off LL it only forces it to use one of the other channels.
     
  8. green slime

    green slime Member

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    Capturing Murmansk and the Entire peninsula frees up massive amounts of Germans that can then go on to Leningrad - Moscow.

    150 aircraft and 4 Mountain / Infantry divisions are going to tip the balance, while the "bulk" of the infantry guard the German-Romanian borders. I don't know who is going to make sure the Arctic Front stays in German hands, I'm guessing the Reindeer Infantry & Elk Cavalry.
     
  9. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    Blocking the Murmansk RR is just to prevent reinforcements and materiel from arriving in time. Capturing Murmansk forces the US and Britain to send supplies through Iran (where ships have to sail around S Africa, so round trips take months, reducing available shpping and escorts for the US-Britain route and exposing ships to raiders and U-boats in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and whose RR is very long, overloaded and takes weeks to arrive in the front) or through Vladivostok, which is closed part of the year and whose RR line is overloaded and takes weeks for materiel to arrive inthe front. or through Arkhangelsk, which is frozen part of the year and it and the ships are very vulnerable with the axis in Kola.

    green,
    Obviously, the last thing the Soviets would try to do with Panzers and planes in Kharkov and from Leningrad advancing to Moscow and from Kola advancing near Archangeslk, while most of Soviet armor is in the Ukraine, Belorussia and former Poland, would be to try to recover distant Kola. Only an austrich would try to liberate Kola with Moscow in danger. Specially since in 1941 foreign aid received was modest, US industry still gearing up for war.
     
  10. green slime

    green slime Member

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    Only a flour-nit believes Soviet armour would be necessary to retreive Kola from the Elk.

    Moscow is hardly in any danger; you have yet to present anything assembling a proper OoB, or a realistic time schedule. How far are you expecting to get in one week, how far in one month? Nobody knows. Don't bother answering; just wave your hands. I'm sure it makes sense to someone.

    Still no answer on how many infantry divisions constitutes a "bulk", nor how the panzers seize port cities within minimal infantry support, nor have you responded in any reasonable, logical, clear, coherent fashion to multiple posters describing the logisitcal and supply issues in the Arctic, nor how the dead and injured German paratroopers dropped on the Murmansk RR by non-existant LW transports expect to hold fast without any heavy weaponry, or hope of relief within weeks. Good thing Himmler has those SS-paratrooper zombies stored on the lunar base.

    So I guess Kola doesn't fall, Murmansk stays Soviet, the Germans don't take the port cities (least of all Leningrad), and 29 German mobile divisions runs out of supplies and gets utterly crushed well before getting anywhere near Moscow.
     
  11. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    Interesting that his "planning" shows some of the same but obviously more extreme examples of some of the problematic parts of the historical plan. I don't see that it shares much of the strengths of the original though. I.e. it bears more resemblance to Hitler in 44 or 45 than the German staff or even Hitler in 41 or 42.
     
  12. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

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    Not that it made much/any difference, it might be still fair to include one more German division, the 163. ID "Engelbrecht", which arrived Finland from Norway (through Sweden!) only days after the beginning of Barbarossa.

    It was placed as a reserve of the Finnish Supreme Commander Mannerheim. Already in July one of it's regiments was moved to Lapland to reinforce the XXXVI Corps in Salla.

    The division fought with the Karelian Army towards Syväri (Svir) river and stayed by the river until February 1942, when it too was moved to Lapland to XXXVI Corps.

    The Finns in Eastern Karelian front were not impressed by the effectiveness of this division (either).
     
  13. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    According to the fascinating Russian documentary Soviet Storm-Barbarossa in youtube,
    On the first day of the war the LW destroyed about 2,000 Soviet planes, but in a completely inconsistent way: 50% of Soviet planes in Belorussia were lost, 17% of the planes in Ukraine were lost, but only 10% of planes in the Baltic were lost. Ironically, the weakest forces on the flanks had weaker air support, had to endure more air attack and had much weaker Panzer and motorized forces and Kleist encountered the largest medium and heavy tank concentration in Brody.

    OTL , after Brody a weakened Kleist advanced slowly against strong forces in the south, but despite having the weakest force and air suppport of all Panzer groups and facing a nearly intact Soviet air force, Höpner and Manstein advanced rapidly in the Baltic. Unfortunately, as it ocurred to Guderian in France, their incompetent superiors ordered the Panzers to halt for a week in order for the infantry to catch up and the Soviets used this invaluable time to redeploy armor and troops and fortify the area around Leningrad.

    In this plan Höpner with 900 tanks and heavy air and naval support and with Soviet planes and ships having been wiped out in the Baltic, captures Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 6 days (he is encouraged by Manstein to advance, rather than being ordered to halt), while Guderian advances with 450 tanks from Finland, bypasses and isolates unprepared Leningrad (for Infantry to take with heavy artillery support) and then sends 1/3 of his tanks to meet Höpner's force (they meet on the 7th day, securing that flank) and leads 2/3 of the tanks toward Moscow. There are 1,000 LW planes in the whole area, 250 of those in S Finland.

    Along the Black Sea coast, Kleist and Hoth with 1,300 tanks and heavy air support (1,000 planes) bypass and isolate Odessa (for infantry with heavy artillery support to take in a few days, since reinforcement cannot arrive by sea, because the Soviet fleet was decimated and the LW sinks any approaching ships) and reach Nikolaev on June 24 and Mariupol on June 28.

    In the far north, 5 German and 3 Finnish divisions (some of the German divisions debarked in captured Petsamo) advance to Murmansk and 4 German and 3 Finnish divisions advance to Salla and then to the RR. Paratroopers and troops transported on Ju 52 with floats land near the RR and half way between Salla and the RR and advance toward the other forces to establish a continuous column and build roads, defenses, etc, in this whole area there are 440 Panzer-STUG, 500 halftracks and 350 LW planes.

    Hundreds of fake, wooden Panzers and planes are deployed along the central border and defended by AAA. Hundreds of thousands of mines are layed along likely routes, kilometers of AT ditches are dug and artillery grids are carefully prepared. Several defensive lines are prepared for a fluid defense. Thousands of machine gun nests, artillery, mortar and flame thrower positions have been carefully prepared.

    Along the western Soviet border the only Soviet territorial losses have been the Baltic countries and the territory liberated by the Romanians (Bukovina and Bessarabia) and the bulge around Lvov (Lemberg).

    Late on June 22, the Stavka knows that it has lost its fleet and aviation in 3 distant sectors but that the central front has not budged. On the other hand, it is too late to save Odessa, Leningrad or Murmansk. Most top Soviet leaders expect the major offensive to take place in the center now that the flanks have been secured, so they oppose redeploying armor from the western border to the north.
    On June 24 Stalin orders aviation and artillery along the border to bomb and shell the enemy and armor and infantry along the central border to launch a massive offensive and the reserve armor to move to the flanks (to counter attack in Lithuania, Latvia, Odessa, etc, to deploy between Leningrad and Moscow and arround Kharkov) and around Moscow. Since there was little armor in the occupied areas, the Soviets still don't have a clue of how inferior their armor and AT tactics are and since most of Soviet tanks are still in service, confidence still pervades.

    On June 29
    Guderian's and Höpner's forces have met. Panzers are on their way to Mariupol and German forces have severed RR transport to Murmansk and are heading for the port, which is being bombed. Troop transports attempt to debark reinforcements from Arkhangelstk in Murmansk at night but two are sunk by mines dropped by planes in the long chanel leading to the port. and 3 are sunk by bombs from planes using chute flares to illuminate the attack and one by a U-boat..

    Thousands of Soviet tanks, planes and troops have been lost trying to smash through axis defenses in the center and the line has moved back and forth in several areas but overall it remains stanble Thousands of tanks broke down on the long stretches to the flanks, the border and Moscow, but the line defensive line holds. Guderians tanks heading for Moscow are slowed by heavy fighting, so that Guderian's tanks which head toward them to rejoin and reinforce them. meanwhile Höpner has sent some tanks to capture Rzhev.

    by July 10 the Soviet forces attacking along the border and coasts have incurred such heavy losses that counter attacks have captured a 60 km swath along the whole front and aalot of equipment and supplies. Army group south is fighting in Kharkov, Höpner is fighting in Rzhev and Guderian is closer to Moscow than to Leningrad (north of Rzhev). Murmask is under heavy attack and completely isolated.

    Prisoners are given the choice of joining axis forces or be transported by ship and then train, to work in axis factories and fields, so that hundreds of thousands do not die of exposure, starvation, disease or dehydration in barbed wire enclosures, discouraging others from surrendering.
     
  14. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    Basically all the German staff opposed Barbarossa (conceived by Hitler and Paulus), let alone the drastic, absurd and fatal changes Hitler made as he went. Dozens of generals (including severa field marshals) were dismissed after Barbarossa's colossal failure (not a single objective accomplished), but those who conceived the plan kept messing things up. Paulus' reward for partaking in the disastrous planning was leading the 6th army, his first combat command, to its obliteration.

    Yet you see strengths in that plan. Cheers.
     
  15. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

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    Again: Petsamo did NOT need capturing! It was still in Finland then.

    Where do you get those 6 Finnish divisions? There were only 16 in total to start with. Most of them were needed in the South, where most of the soviet troops were and also the area, which Finland wanted back. There was no reason what so ever for the Finns to attack Murmansk.

    Attacking from Petsamo to Murmansk on land could not be done - as the Germans found out and what the Finns already were aware of. There were no roads at all and the terrain was undrivable. Making a road would have required heavy machinery and a lot of time - during peace time.

    And how were those 15 divisions going to be supplied for? Even the Finnish road "network" in Lapland was not sufficient enough. On the soviet side it was much worse. The infrastructure on either side just couldn't have handled that large forces.

    What about the paras and the JU 52s? Is Lapland the only place where they are used? After Crete there were not that many units available. Also using cargo planes for supplying the troops would have required a LOT of planes - and fuel and other supplies. All of that should have been transported to Lapland and further to the destinations. See the infrastructure comment above.

    Also how is Germany going to make Finland to join the Axes and officially join the Barbarossa? Without that it would been impossible for neutral Finland to break her treaties, by allowing German forces all over the country and letting them to attack from Finland. I can't see how that could have happened.
     
  16. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    Karjala,
    German divisions are much more useful in South Finland, while Finnish divisions are much more useful in the north.

    The distances to Murmansk and K. are a joke compared with suplying Libya through Tripoli (with the allies in Malta and east Lybia), Norway (with allied control of the sea), Greece, Crete or Smolensk (without RR). As long as Germany controls the area (and therefore, the sea), supplies through Petsamo are no problem at all for Murmansk. As I said, the strong force can build roads, bridges, defences, etc, while it fights, much better than the weak and extremely deficiently supplied force OTL.

    There is no need for paras anywhere else in June and it is simply absurd to use them as infantry (it makes a lot more sense to move infantry in planes than to use paras as infantry). Supplying a rapid advance to relieve the airborne troops (who blocked the RR on the first day) in a few days, while bombers thwart counter attack deployments is a piece of cake compared with supplying Damyansk for months (fighting 400,000 Soviets).

    OTL Germany did not avail itself of 16 invaluable Finnish divisions, 300 Finnish planes, 150 German planes, dozens of tank crews, 3 destroyers and 4 German divisions, etc, and lost a lot of men, ships, etc, for no gains at all and then had to supply those divisions just to prevent the Soviets from capturing the nickel mines in Petsamo. At the same time the roads in Ukraine, Bielorussia and Lithuania were overflowing on June 22 with men on foot, hundreds of thousands of horses, etc, and nothing at all happened in the South (Romania, like Finland did not invade the USSR on the first day). The Soviets in contrast had most of their forces in the path of the enemy.
    In this plan, there are three strong forces far appart, all of them supplied by sea and facing weak enemy forces, so the advance is spectacular and with limited losses. In contrast, the Soviets (who have deplorable logistics) are forced to deploy to 3 distant fronts and under enemy local air dominion and to attack (which they do much worse than defend) a carefully prepared, strong defensive line in the center.

    Ships, trucks, halftracks and planes are much better suited for Blitzkrieg than horses moving cannon for weeks or months before they fire their first shot. Infantry and artillery are much more usefull fighting or improving defenses, etc, than walking over 1,000 km.
     
  17. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    They also opposed the invasion of France did they not? And yes there are clearly strengths to the basic plan for Barbarossa. Up through August they inflicted huge losses on the Red Army. The problems lay in what happened if the Soviets didn't collapse as expected and in particular how to keep the forces in supply as they penetrated deeper into the USSR and what the key target(s) were at that point.

    By the way so far you have not convinced anyone here, at least as far as I can tell, that your "plan" is superior and indeed most if not all the posters seem convinced that it is even worse than the historical one, if it even deserves the title of "plan".
     
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  18. LJAd

    LJAd Well-Known Member

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    There were no dozens of generals (including several fieldmarshalls-) dismissed after the failure of Barbarossa: this and all the rest you are telling exists only in your imagination .
     
  19. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

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    As you wrote, Manstein did not convince anybody in the staff about the sickle cut, so I am not concerned about convincing you. It was you who mentioned the staff in the first place, as if they mattered.


    They also opposed the invasion of France did they not? And yes there are clearly strengths to the basic plan for Barbarossa. Up through August they inflicted huge losses on the Red Army. The problems lay in what happened if the Soviets didn't collapse as expected and in particular how to keep the forces in supply as they penetrated deeper into the USSR and what the key target(s) were at that point.

    By the way so far you have not convinced anyone here, at least as far as I can tell, that your "plan" is superior and indeed most if not all the posters seem convinced that it is even worse than the historical one, if it even deserves the title of "plan".


    lwd,

    War is not about inflicting huge losses on the enemy, it is about disabling him (Poland, France, Norway, Yugoslavia, and Greece suffered minor losses, but lost the war). Letting thousands of tanks put themselves out of commission by malfunction or lack of fuel is much smarter than facing them in Brody and having Kleist lose 1/4 of his few tanks (while Hitler has ordered to retain all new tanks in Germany) You can cause millions of casualties in a few months, but of if you lose most of your tanks, planes and experienced men, fail to attain a single objective and there are tens of millions of men and women willing to fight and the communications, production, etc, are intact, you have lost the war.
    However, letting the enemy attack wit deplorable logistics will cause fewer German losses and more Soviet losses than reducing huge pockets in heavily fortified Kiev, Minsk, Smolensk, etc,

    Even Hitler (who did not take into account the rasputitsa) knew that time was of the essence, yet he wasted it advancing over a huge front with heavy losses and the bulk of his army on foot and hauling supplies with horses, the worst possible plan. Just wasting tanks closing many pockets and having to break through the Stalin line in several places makes a lot less sense than advancng along the flanks to close a huge pocket, while disabling Moscow, the command, communications and transportation center, Leningrad (production of KV tanks, etc,) and Kharkhov (tank production, etc,).

    I don't expect you to see any difference between concentrating tanks in a narrow, weak front (with a flank covered by the sea) and spreading them over a huge, heavily defended front, especially when there are fewer and worse German tanks and artillery. The Pz I and II and the 38 (t) were inferior to the numerous BT-7 and made the bulk of German armor. There were only about 1,400 Pz III & IV and they were much inferior to the larger number of KV-1 and 2 and T-34 with which they collided.
     
  20. Black6

    Black6 Member

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    The German General staff opposed Barbarossa? Hitler and Paulus planned it??? :eek:
    Wow....
     
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