Could the Western Allies Win Without the USSR?

It seems quite hard to think otherwise for me if you think all the ostfront units had been waiting for Overlord in the west....

 

There's your problem. They wouldn't have been. Of course even if they were that wouldn't stop the German cities from glowing in the dark.

 

That is the intrinsic problem with this scenario; why is there no Russo-German war?

Does the USSR simply not exist? In that case, sure, Germany has more available manpower, but would it keep them in the Heer? Or turn them towards that c. 7-million shortfall in labor they had - no war in the east, then no influx of slave labor from the east. And wouldn't they want to rebalance their forces to have a larger Luftwaffe to counter the Western allies immense strength in that area?

Or if the USSR exists, but somehow the Molotov-Ribbentrop accord holds, Hitler decides not to attack his "ally" and concentrates in the West. There is still no way Germany can successfully invade England in 1941 or later. Again the Germans still have the problem of labor demands and unbalanced forces...and the notion there would be zero forces in the East guarding against the Soviets is an unlikely assumption as well. Then you have the problem that the Atlantic Wal may be some 1,700 miles long, but the German periphery where they can be attacked is much greater - through Greece and the Balkans, Italy, the Southern French Coast, and Norway - all those suck up the additional troops too.

Then there is the case that without having to supply massive quantities of finished war materiel to the Soviets, American industry might not absorb so much manpower, liberating strength for an additional 10, 20 or even 30 divisions for Europe.

And so on...

 

How many lives would the Allies be willing to sacrifice for peace in Europe?

Considering that Western Europe was all but occupied by Nazi Germany, the question then lays with GB and the US.

 

Germany couldn't afford to buy resources from the Soviet Union, just like the UK couldn't afford to buy from the USA. I can't see Stalin coming up with a Lend Lease program for a country that he considered a mortal enemy even before it invaded him. He viewed all non-communist countries as mortal enemies.

 

In 1944 many German "divisions" we're the size of prewar regiments. There were panzer divisions with fewer that 200 AFVs.

 

The US took heavy losses fighting the Luftwaffe over its own airfields deep inside Germany. Fighting over France within range of RAF fighters based in the UK with radar parity would be a very different story. Both fighter and bomber losses would be far lower for the allies, but the Luftwaffe would take higher losses because instead of facing Mustangs with tired pilots, it would be facing Mustangs, Thunderbolts, Lightnings, Spitfires, Tornados, Tempests, Mosquitos and Beaufighters all with fresh pilots a half hour from their bases. Eventually the Luftwaffe would lose the war of attrition and the allies would own the skies over France just as in the OTL. Then the Whermacht would be starved of food, fuel and ordnance and Overlord could take place against defending troops crippled by losses of transport and largely immobilized by lack of fuel,

 

Once you have air superiority, it's the beginning of the end.

 

A German division was only about two thirds the size of a US division. (Eight vs twelve thousand men). US divisions were far more lavishly equipped with vehicles, artillery and heavy weapons.

 

One

exactly how are the Germans going to deploy their forces to North Africa or the Middle East? To get to either the Germans would need a navy. The zgermans could fight anywhere they could walk

 

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According to my memory, most of the fuel carried over the hump wasn’t in drums, it was excess fuel in the tanks of the planes. B-29s flew missions over the hump just to deliver fuel in their tanks.

 

Yes, but it was the extra fuel pods to save the bombers that turned the tide forever.

 

I think Fascism/Nazism inherently needs war/conflict, as the need for expansion requires the need for resources. Hitler was a believer in Social Darwinism, and his race ideology would have eventually attacked the USSR due to Slavic/Jews/Communism. This topic could also say "What if Japan didn't attack America." And if that were the case, imagine the resources the USA could have brought to the ETO and MTO in terms of air, naval, and ground forces if Japan didn't attack. The USA keeps a security-type armed force in the Pacific area. And Hitler would have to apply the same concept in the East of keeping a security force in the East as a "what if." Hitler adamantly hated Bolshevism, so I don't see him paying the SU for the materiel provided for many years longer as Germany was running out of capital, and it would strengthen the SU in terms of technology and more German assets. Yes Germany had the resources of the rest of Occupied Europe, but at least 50% of the total Pacific forces now it the ETO and MTO would have to factor in with the other scenario.

 

The Soviets Lost 3.5 million POW's during the first autumn/winter alone. Imagine the KIA and wounded to this.What other Army could have taken this?

 

The fact that the Western Allies would have overwhelming sea power and air power, Germany would have to take away from their land forces to build up the Navy and Air Force. The US had over 2 million men total in the AAF in 1944-45, and if all of the planes and men were in the ETO and MTO instead of the Pacific along with the naval vessels, Germany would have to counter that.

 

I wrote that in the context of "What if Germany didn't invade the USSR and Japan didn't attack the US." I think it works in both theatres as a "what if."

 

I wrote that in the context of "What if Germany didn't invade the USSR and Japan didn't attack the US." I think it works in both theatres as a "what if."

 

I prefaced my first answer with why I think, based on ideology, that Fascism needs war for expansion. Japan and Germany were both on the short end of the stick when it comes to resources. If Japan wanted to expand, they needed to attack territories that were not there's. If Germany wanted the resources it required and it was their "right" as the "racially superior" they would have had to attack Russia as well.

In the Summer and Fall of 1940, Germany tried to take down the RAF and it didn't work. The USA and Britain would continue to build their forces as Britain was still not conquered and the seriousness of the situation from the US standpoint.

 

Had Hitler not invaded the USSR he would have only needed to concentrate on the Western Allies. The Germans offered peace with Britain on a number of occasions, most memorably Rudolf Hess's flight and letting the British escape at Dunkirk, all of which were rejected which is why I think the British would still perservere. It's interesting to imagine what would have happened at this point. German forces would not have to commit themselves in the east and the western allies wouldn't have been able to pull off operations like the Italian Campaign and D-Day.