The Pearl Harbor scenario

T. A. Gardner · #1 (**permalink**) August 11th, 2007, 03:26 AM

This is a variant of a What-if type question. Put up your actions and I'll give you a response. Each person can 'play' seperately or several can collaborate.

You are General Short / Admiral Kimmel (eg., in charge of the Army and Navy) at Pearl Harbor. A little before 6 am (about one hour before the actual attack) you are awakened and handed a telegram from Washington that states Japan is going to war today and will attack Pearl Harbor.
Further, you have just recieved word that a destroyer in the submarine exclusion zone just outside the harbor entrance is reporting having sighted and sunk an unidentified submarine.
What are your orders? Be specific please.

skunk works · #2 (**permalink**) August 11th, 2007, 04:30 AM

Do we know what's going to happen, or green as grass?
To do this one would have to realize that hostilities were imminent, and not be sleepy, locked up, and politically correct. If not...the same thing would happen.
Scramble ready airplanes (hopefully there are some armed/fueled). Concentrate on the ones closet to air first, don't try for the full Monty. Then add to the tally in groups. Fly off everything you can, but only after fueled/armed.
Disperse the ones on ground (as much as possible), man & unlimber the antiaircraft guns.
Get the PBYs up to find out if they are alone (not likely), how far off they are, with increasing (many plane) circles, and where (what direction) they are comming from.
Battle Stations everyone! Somethings going on so get all forms of reconnaissance to find out exactly what.
Wake everybody up! They're in the service, not on vacation. Get all who can to their posts with live ammunition.
Search and cover the entrance to the harbor.
Activate all ships who can get out of the harbor and open sea in an hour or less. All others, fire up the boilers and get power all areas, especially damage control.
Prepare for attack. Hopefully you've done most of this beforehand. Meet them head on. Cover likely avenues of attack, valleys, the beach, entrance to the harbor. The best defense is to attack the attack.
Be between them and likely targets, know what they know. Disrupt the plan, and make it hurt.
Attempt to act instead or react (as much as possible). Hit them on the way in and the way out with anti-aircraft, and during with the fighters.
Re-call every troop/sailor/airman.
It's no longer a question if it's real or not, only questions of how soon, and how big, and how long.

Slipdigit · #3 (**permalink**) August 11th, 2007, 04:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by T. A. Gardner

This is a variant of a What-if type question. Put up your actions and I'll give you a response. Each person can 'play' seperately or several can collaborate.

You are General Short / Admiral Kimmel (eg., in charge of the Army and Navy) at Pearl Harbor. A little before 6 am (about one hour before the actual attack) you are awakened and handed a telegram from Washington that states Japan is going to war today and will attack Pearl Harbor.
Further, you have just recieved word that a destroyer in the submarine exclusion zone just outside the harbor entrance is reporting having sighted and sunk an unidentified submarine.
What are your orders? Be specific please.

I am taking Kimmel's part and assuming your scenerio of Pearl Harbor being spelled out in telegram as the only target (no mention of other bases).

Notify Short of receipt of my message.
Immediate launch of available recon aircraft (armed or not), searching area in an arc west of longitude transecting Oahu. Direct Naval forces to coordinate with Army to make best use of long range and short range aircraft.
Order all available aircraft made ready for combat, armed for anti-shipping and ASW attacks. Defer to Short for actions involving USAAF craft.
Order all subs at sea to locate Japanese warships and shadow them, being prepared to defend if they are attacked or upon confirmation of hostile intent by Pearl.
Alert Midway and all other Pacific Islands under command. Order airborne recon (VP-21, Midway) to commence recon of 270 degree arc, excluding NE quarter of Midway.
Order fleet to make ready for emergency sortie and prepare for AAA and ASW action.
Order Shore Patrol to Honolulu with available trucks and begin recall of sailors on liberty and transport back to Pearl.
Order all AAA to be manned an armed.
Alert hospitals of possible casualties.
Declare Martial Law in conjunction with Gen Short and mobilize shore-based Marines to enforce martial law and provide for Island defense.
Notify radio stations to recall naval personnel and alert public of possible impending attack, then cease broadcasting at 06:30.
Order dispersal of landed naval land aircraft.
Order minesweepers Bobolink, Viero, Turkey, Rail and Tern to begin minesweeping operation to assure clear track out of harbor and to the Southwest.
Order DDs Selfridge, Case, Tucker, Reid, and Conyngham to sortie and begin to conduct ASW sweeps along same track as minesweepers.
Recall Lexington and Enterprise groups (Task Force 8 & 12) and order them to clear surplus aircraft as needed from decks to allow for immediate flight operations. Order them to begin to conduct recon operations at first available light and to set course for area SW of Pearl, zig-zagging at highest possible speed.
Recall TF 3 from Johnston Island to join TFs 8 & 12 when in range.
Direct Saratoga to make ready to leave San Diego at earliest possible time.
When ready, have fleet begin to leave Pearl, with remaining DDs in the van, followed by cruisers and BBs. Flag is to be the California, with Task Force I leading, Followed by TF 2. Task Force BBs, CAs and CLs are to reform with DDs upon clearing the harbor and form for ASW defense, changing posture as needed.
In-harbor subs (TF7) are to leave as they are ready and begin search to the SW, W and NW of Oahu, but not interferring with the departure of TF 1 & 2. CO of TF 7 to coordinate.
Support ships, remaining mine craft and other ships not listed (TF 15) are to remain in Pearl and provide AAA for the harbor, congregating near the SW Loch, 1010 dock and S side of Ford Island under direction of CO of TF 15 and be prepared to sortie out of harbor if ordered.
TF 1, 2, 3, 8 & 12 are to rendevous SW of Oahu and prepare for operations the W and NW. This could take a day or two. TF 1 & 2 are to stay within range of Oahu-based aircraft until the arrival of TFs 8 & 12.
Tankers are take on oil and prepare to get underway to replenish fleet.

T. A. Gardner · #4 (**permalink**) August 11th, 2007, 06:55 PM

Slipdigit's entry response:

• Notify Short of receipt of my message.
Short received the same message.
• Immediate launch of available recon aircraft (armed or not), searching area in an arc west of longitude transecting Oahu. Direct Naval forces to coordinate with Army to make best use of long range and short range aircraft.
NAS Kaneohe Bay reports back that there are two PBY already on patrol in the authorized zone northwest and west of Oahu. They also put up the one alert PBY and it should be on patrol station by 0700. The USAAF has no suitable long range maritime patrol aircraft and there are only 6 B-17 available but these are not “on strength” as they are in transit to the Philippines. Kaneohe says they will have additional PBY available by 0700 – 0730 as crews return to the base.
• Order all available aircraft made ready for combat, armed for anti-shipping and ASW attacks. Defer to Short for actions involving USAAF craft.
MCAS Ewa reports that by 0700 they should have 8 F4F and 28 SBD available with crews. Dispersion of aircraft is underway but not all manpower has made it to the station as of this report. NAS Kaneohe reports that there are 32 PBY available and that 6 more will be airborne by 0730 and an additional 10 will be ready by 1100. (Note: These aircraft are partially moored in water berths and partially on the ramps at the station).
• Order all subs at sea to locate Japanese warships and shadow them, being prepared to defend if they are attacked or upon confirmation of hostile intent by Pearl.
There are no submarines out of Pearl currently at sea.
• Alert Midway and all other Pacific Islands under command. Order airborne recon (VP-21, Midway) to commence recon of 270 degree arc, excluding NE quarter of Midway.
Midway reports back that two PBY should be airborne by 0730 with another 2 by 0800.
• Order fleet to make ready for emergency sortie and prepare for AAA and ASW action.
In progress.
• Order Shore Patrol to Honolulu with available trucks and begin recall of sailors on liberty and transport back to Pearl.
This is going to take some time.
• Order all AAA to be manned an armed.
Fleet is reporting setting of Zed in progress by ship crews coming to general quarters as quickly as possible. Many ships report that key officers are not aboard yet and that they are responding more slowly due to crew on liberty having not returned yet. There is a crunch with getting boats to ferry crew to ships at anchor as well.
• Alert hospitals of possible casualties.
This has caused the civilian authorities some concern and there is considerable questioning and worry about what is happening.
• Declare Martial Law in conjunction with Gen Short and mobilize shore-based Marines to enforce martial law and provide for Island defense.
General Short has to do this alone. The island defense is his pervue. Use of the Marines or having the Navy step in would be out of their jurisdiction.
• Notify radio stations to recall naval personnel and alert public of possible impending attack, then cease broadcasting at 06:30.
The alert of civilian authorities has set off a minor panic and jammed many phone lines. The radio station recall is underway but, broadcasters have so far ignored calls to cease broadcasting based on civil authority requests to the contrary.
• Order dispersal of landed naval land aircraft.
This is underway at Ford Island, Kaneohe, and Ewa.
• Order minesweepers Bobolink, Viero, Turkey, Rail and Tern to begin minesweeping operation to assure clear track out of harbor and to the Southwest.
These ships have gotten underway by 0700 but several are reporting crew shortages and or missing key officers. In two cases the CO is not aboard and junior officers are commanding. These are awaiting the return of the CO to get underway. The sweepers Condor and Antares along with the destroyer Ward are continuing to conduct ASW sweeps outside the harbor entrance.
• Order DDs Selfridge, Case, Tucker, Reid, and Conyngham to sortie and begin to conduct ASW sweeps along same track as minesweepers.
These DD’s report that they should have steam up and be able to sortie by 0730, 0800 at the latest. The duty destroyer Monaghan is underway to assist Ward outside the harbor. Helm also reports having steam up as she was to sortie just after 0800 this morning.
• Recall Lexington and Enterprise groups (Task Force 8 & 12) and order them to clear surplus aircraft as needed from decks to allow for immediate flight operations. Order them to begin to conduct recon operations at first available light and to set course for area SW of Pearl, zig-zagging at highest possible speed.
No reply to this communication as of yet.
• Recall TF 3 from Johnston Island to join TFs 8 & 12 when in range.
No reply to this communication as of yet.
• Direct Saratoga to make ready to leave San Diego at earliest possible time.
ComNavAir San Diego has received the transmission but not replied with a status as of yet.
• When ready, have fleet begin to leave Pearl, with remaining DDs in the van, followed by cruisers and BBs. Flag is to be the California, with Task Force I leading, Followed by TF 2. Task Force BBs, CAs and CLs are to reform with DDs upon clearing the harbor and form for ASW defense, changing posture as needed.
The fleet should be able to begin to sortie by 0700. The California reports they will not have Zed set until about 0800 to 0830 due to a large number of voids in torpedo defense system being open for inspection. A number of ships report that the CO is not aboard yet and other key officers and crew have not returned. They request instructions as to how to proceed if these officers and crew have not returned before they are ordered to sortie.
• In-harbor subs (TF7) are to leave as they are ready and begin search to the SW, W and NW of Oahu, but not interferring with the departure of TF 1 & 2. CO of TF 7 to coordinate.
The subs should be at sea by 0900.
• Support ships, remaining mine craft and other ships not listed (TF 15) are to remain in Pearl and provide AAA for the harbor, congregating near the SW Loch, 1010 dock and S side of Ford Island under direction of CO of TF 15 and be prepared to sortie out of harbor if ordered.
These ships are reporting Zed set and at GQ for the most part. Again, officer and crew shortages are being reported. Most of these are in the West Loch and requesting instructions on what anchorage they should move to, if any.
• TF 1, 2, 3, 8 & 12 are to rendevous SW of Oahu and prepare for operations the W and NW. This could take a day or two. TF 1 & 2 are to stay within range of Oahu-based aircraft until the arrival of TFs 8 & 12.
Noted.
• Tankers are take on oil and prepare to get underway to replenish fleet.
Neosho is currently loaded with AVGAS for Ford Island and moored by California. Otherwise these should sortie by 1200.
New stuff
At 0700 the Japanese are about 125 miles out from Ohau and closing. The US Army reports that Opana radar has made a contact at about that range but there is confusion about whether this is a flight of B-17 or possibly Japanese aircraft. The USAAF is sending two aircraft to check the contact.

The ships conducting the ASW search outside the harbor have no new contacts to report.

T. A. Gardner · #5 (**permalink**) August 11th, 2007, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skunk works

Do we know what's going to happen, or green as grass?
To do this one would have to realize that hostilities were imminent, and not be sleepy, locked up, and politically correct. If not...the same thing would happen.
Scramble ready airplanes (hopefully there are some armed/fueled). Concentrate on the ones closet to air first, don't try for the full Monty. Then add to the tally in groups. Fly off everything you can, but only after fueled/armed.
Disperse the ones on ground (as much as possible), man & unlimber the antiaircraft guns.
Get the PBYs up to find out if they are alone (not likely), how far off they are, with increasing (many plane) circles, and where (what direction) they are comming from.
Battle Stations everyone! Somethings going on so get all forms of reconnaissance to find out exactly what.
Wake everybody up! They're in the service, not on vacation. Get all who can to their posts with live ammunition.
Search and cover the entrance to the harbor.
Activate all ships who can get out of the harbor and open sea in an hour or less. All others, fire up the boilers and get power all areas, especially damage control.
Prepare for attack. Hopefully you've done most of this beforehand. Meet them head on. Cover likely avenues of attack, valleys, the beach, entrance to the harbor. The best defense is to attack the attack.
Be between them and likely targets, know what they know. Disrupt the plan, and make it hurt.
Attempt to act instead or react (as much as possible). Hit them on the way in and the way out with anti-aircraft, and during with the fighters.
Re-call every troop/sailor/airman.
It's no longer a question if it's real or not, only questions of how soon, and how big, and how long.

No, you don't know what will happen. You also need to be more specific in your answer.

skunk works · #6 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 01:57 AM

I'm not that "up" on the state of all ships, the locations of all "Skippers", and whether the next in line would take solitary actions (to obey orders, to save troops/ships/planes/equipment) or risk a dressing down/demotion by superiors.
Who would and who wouldn't ?
As you pointed out, unless a Hawaii-wide scramble could be given by someone who didn't have to debate it in committee for a month first, and then vote with a 2/3rds majority, worry about hurting someones feelings, injuring someones self-esteem, crossing the line on his/her token authority, offending someones sense of sensabilities, endangering their future career in politics, their pension...(seperate future politics from military), I know it started that way and it wont change, (military service makes a political candidate...often enough)
If too frieghtened because of future ambitions to make a decision that you can't blame on someone else, why are you in command ?
Quote from Midway...Halsey...When you're in command...Command !
I'm thinking a 1 hour sooner alert wouldn't change much.
IF
everyone who was able to be ready (there and had the "keys" so to speak), had an another hour to prepare, then I believe instead of loosing 29 planes (with another 40 crash-landing on carrier decks upon returning), the Japanese may have lost 150-200 planes and done less than half the damage they did before their group was found by the rest of the Navy, and hounded all the way back to Japan.

Slipdigit · #7 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 03:10 AM

Quote:

At 0700 the Japanese are about 125 miles out from Ohau and closing. The US Army reports that Opana radar has made a contact at about that range but there is confusion about whether this is a flight of B-17 or possibly Japanese aircraft. The USAAF is sending two aircraft to check the contact.

Is it now 0700? I guess that Navy has access to Army intelligence from Opana in this scenerio?

Slipdigit · #8 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 05:24 AM

**post cleared**

Slipdigit · #9 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 05:40 PM

A-ha...I finally found what I have been looking for. A complete listing of Pacific Fleet ships NOT at Pearl Harbor and their locations. Now, all I need is a map of Central Pacific that doesn't have markings all over it, other than geographical names and lat and long lines.

I will have amendments to my previous posting later today or this evening (US time). Terry, could you hold off with your assessment until then?

One other thing, I noticed in your first posting that you said "You are General Short / Admiral Kimmel (eg., in charge of the Army and Navy) at Pearl Harbor." Did I misread this? In this game\scenerio, did you want us to be one person, incorporating both Kimmel and Short, say an overall military warlord of Hawaii and adjacent areas? I read it as we were to be one or the other at first.

Slipdigit · #10 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skunk works

I'm not that "up" on the state of all ships, the locations of all "Skippers", and whether the next in line would take solitary actions (to obey orders, to save troops/ships/planes/equipment) or risk a dressing down/demotion by superiors.
Who would and who wouldn't ?
As you pointed out, unless a Hawaii-wide scramble could be given by someone who didn't have to debate it in committee for a month first, and then vote with a 2/3rds majority, worry about hurting someones feelings, injuring someones self-esteem, crossing the line on his/her token authority, offending someones sense of sensabilities, endangering their future career in politics, their pension...(seperate future politics from military), I know it started that way and it wont change, (military service makes a political candidate...often enough)
If too frieghtened because of future ambitions to make a decision that you can't blame on someone else, why are you in command ?

Quote from Midway...Halsey...When you're in command...Command !
I'm thinking a 1 hour sooner alert wouldn't change much.
IF
everyone who was able to be ready (there and had the "keys" so to speak), had an another hour to prepare, then I believe instead of loosing 29 planes (with another 40 crash-landing on carrier decks upon returning), the Japanese may have lost 150-200 planes and done less than half the damage they did before their group was found by the rest of the Navy, and hounded all the way back to Japan.

Skunk, It think Terry meant for this to be more of a scholary game than a scholarly discussion. What YOU would do, not what other options Kimmel or Short could have taken. Terry changed history slightly, in that I don't think a message as described in his first posting reached Kimmel or Short at 0600.

T. A. Gardner · #11 (**permalink**) August 12th, 2007, 08:20 PM

Skunkworks, that is about what I meant. You needed to give specifics about your actions if you were in charge and had the information presented. I cannot easily respond to vague generalities or the if I do this then what happens response.
The idea of this exercise is to allow you to research specifics about occurances that led up to the actual attack and given more information that it was about to occur allow you to modify the US response.
As for your role, you can play this as both Short and Kimmel (with the necessary seperation of responses that would occur) or, as Slipdigit has as just Kimmel with Short's responses being given automatically. And, yes, I can wait a bit on another response.

Slipdigit · #12 (**permalink**) August 13th, 2007, 12:03 AM

Terry,
Thanks for the delay. I'm going to delay a bit more. I just got back from fighting a struture fire in this comfortable and temperate 103 degree heat, and I'm just too dang worn out to do much thinking.

I'll have something tomorrow.

Jeff

Slipdigit · #13 (**permalink**) August 13th, 2007, 11:43 PM

Terry, there's going to be a bit more of a delay, the home a/c isn't "conditioning" the air.

Slipdigit · #14 (**permalink**) August 14th, 2007, 05:04 AM

Terry or others,

I need to know how long it took the Nevada to make her run down the south side of Ford Island until she began to loose way had to be beached. I need to know so that I can gauge roughly how much time it would take to clear the harbor.
I thought I remember that she initially was beached off of the Waipio Peninsula before working her way across to Hospital Point. Am I correct in this?

T. A. Gardner · #15 (**permalink**) August 14th, 2007, 03:15 PM

I will let you know the times later today.