10,000 bombers--?!

....in The Battle of the Atlantic by Dimbleby, page 362, he talks about Churchill's scientific adviser Lord Cherwell-Professor Frederick Lindemann.....
....it says that Lord Cherwell:
'''argued that a force of 10,000 bombers --which he forecast should be available in the middle of 1943--could drive 'the great majority of the population........'''
....is this an error or what? 10,000 bombers by 1943? !!?
even with US production at full strength, this still sounds outlandish---yes? middle of 1943!?
...there's nothing in the following pages regarding how he came up with this number

 

..thank you..I was trying to find that exact information
.......I'm getting about 7725 for all of 1943.....that's more than I thought......that surprises me .....but then I thought they scraped the barrel and more just to get 1000 plane raids ..they only had about 700 for the July 1943 Hamburg raids...plus 300 [?] US the next day? ...I guess that's what he was thinking with the 10,000 being total for the European Theater ...?...but some of those must have went to the Med and North Africa? ..
.....maybe like Harris, he was wishful thinking about air power ending the war

 

Cherwell consulted the Air Ministry about production. However, when Sir Henry Tizard wrote his rebuttal one month later, the Air Ministry was less optimistic about production. Cherwell also wrote that he used the round number of 10,000 so that Churchill would not have to do much math.

The number is also a very simplistic estimation, and does not take into account many factors that cannot be estimated; such as bomber losses in training & combat.

 

The matter is discussed in some detail here:
The Allocation of Responsibility

 

.......the book does talk about how the bombing of the cities was not as helpful vs using more airpower to deter the Uboats would've been--this sounds logical

 

..depending how anyone looks at it, like LR216 said, it's ''not far'' off---especially considering it was not a ''simple''' equation = just like in today's world...I'm in production now and reaching our monthly production goals/delivery goals is like rolling the dice!...there are many ''problems'' that come up--and we are not ''at war'''.....the Covid19 has totally thrown a monkey wrench into though...even without C19, there are problems --

 

Lord Cherwell believed that destroying German cities would Bring victory, just like Sir Harris. No wonder he wanted more bombers.

 

Yep, been there done that. There were always prooblems, but these can be somewhat factored in as to general output.

The real problem, was estimating ramped up production a year or two down the road - how quickly can factories be built, production machinery acquired, new workers trained, etc.

The closest I can equate to my manufacturing experience would be, when we suddenly got a huge order in that had to be met - lot's of OT, working many days straight, and hope that there were enough materials on hand for production(or that they would arrive "just in time")

 

Brexit perhaps happened at the very wrong time. Now it is not so clear to get financial help from the EU?

 

In 1943 the US alone built 9500 plus heavy bombers, 7200 plus medium, 11800 plus light, and 23000 plus fighters. By mid-1943 between the USA and England, they could have had 10,000 bombers. The trained and experienced personnel to go with those bombers and escorts, that's a different question.

 

..yes, I guess I was thinking of how they scraped the barrel just to get 1000 bombers for a raid --even in 1943....
..but, there is the big difference in 10,000 for raids and what they actually put up

 

The people planning the war could have thought massive numbers instead the possible construction figures.

 

..yes, people do the same thing now---
..the US did it in Vietnam also ---hoping and thinking ---wishful thinking