1942-43 winter and Manstein

First of, hi all. I'm posting here instead of althistory since after following that board for several months the vitriolic attacks that people do on a person level is not acceptable to me, therefore i find it preferable to post here, even if this place is a little more quiet.

I have a scenario that I might like to write an Alt History short story about. I might or might not ever do it and or finish it but i would like some feedback on the idea, is it historically plausible, if not probable as well as anything else anyone thinks of. Attacks on me personally will not be answered and personal attacks on others will be referred to the mod. Thanks all, here goes.

Late 1942 in an unspecified location in Eastern front.

Manstein, Hitler and Göring sit at a table. The discussion seems to go on for hours, Göring rants about how his undefeated Luftwaffe will easily supply the encircled army at Stalingrad. Manstein keeps trying to convince the Fuhrer to pull back to a more defensible position now or risk losing the war in line with Napoleons defeat.

Hitler decides to call the meeting a day and Manstein and Göring withdraw. The two men are hardly able to cover their loathing for one another. Hitler thinks to himself and is leaning on going with Göring's proposal of an Air bridge. Knowing that any evacuation from Stalingrad will have to leave behind a large amount of military hardware and be a severe hit on the battle moral.

Deep in thought Hitler walks around his office and a knock on the door informs him that Speer has arrived. Another meeting begins, Speers report on the German military industry is a long and complex one, during it Hitler finds his mind wondering. He asks speer to comment on which of the two men is more reliable at his word, Göring or Manstein. Speer pauses for a moment, then says that Göring promised the Fuhrer and the Reich that Britain would be out of the war with an air campaign and failed in that promise. Göring failed one front even with unlimited resources, he is unreliable.

Hitler nods, after the report on the production Hitler withdraws to his quarters for the night.

In the morning of December 1st 1942. Hitler places Von Manstein as the supreme commander of all forces on the Eastern front, with the following general orders.

1st, Evacuate all forces from the Don and Stalingrad towards staging areas near Rostov. Where they will reorganize and conduct a delaying action withdrawing towards Odessa in good order.

2nd, Begin fortification of the Dniepr river combined with mine fields. This fortification must be completed before july 1st of 1944. During which time a large portion of the armor corps will be redeployed to South and Western Europe in anticipation for an allied summer landing somewhere in Europe.

3rd. A series of German puppet states will be founded in Eastern Europe and tasked with domestic security. These will be charged with up keeping order behind the front line.

4th. Observers from Finland will be requested to instruct the OKW on winter warfare with limited armor and motorization especially in the forested Baltic area.

5th. Immediate cease-fire will be sought with Stalin leading up to a potential peace treaty. Since areas under present German control are SSR minors and not for the most part Ethnic Russians, peace treaty can conceivably be accomplished. In exchange Germany will withdraw all support from Japan and Manchuria and allow SU to annex these areas as they see best.

States founded:

Baltic union, to try to instill a sense of "together we live, separated we die" and a shared destiny between all 3 nations. Undemocratic coalition government.

Polish Central Government to appease western nations, most poles from both the German occupied areas will be deported here. Under very loose German control, allowed democratic elections and a semblance of actual independence.

Belorussian freehold. City-states between the Eastern border of Poland and Russia. Governed by provinces no larger than Minsk in a loose alliance to better tolerate the shifting borderlines.

Ukrainian republic. Given, by a considerable degree, most independence of all 4. All territory between Romania - Belorussia and the east front. Urged to become close to a Left Wing radical state to draw support away from Stalin.

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At the same time Göring is ordered to focus on Fighter production and pilot training forgoing most of the CAS and Bomber production. The USSR tactic of "hugging" the Germans renders this style of warfare inefficient anyway. Therefore it is of the highest importance that production be shifted towards fighters and local and perhaps eventually total air superiority over the western front attained.

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Mid December Manstein launches an attack against the Stalingrad Encirclement with a simultaneous order by now Marshal Paulus to break out of the encirclement and attempt to meet with Mansteins spearhead. Whole operation is supported by most of the Luftwaffe bomber force on the E-Front.

A long and intense struggle ensues but a breakthrough is made with heavy losses to both sides and Stalingrad evacuation begins. Total losses are a fair bit heavier for the Russians than they are for the Germans. Germans manage to evacuate a fair portion of the heavy equipment with them but still, evacuation from an encirclement is still an evacuation and a lot of gear is left behind.

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January, front line cohesion is returned and axis forces fight a delaying withdrawal to better positions in the dniepr river which they will fortify heavily over the next 6 months as the battle slowly draws closer to it. When completed on the 1st of July it will be considered the E-Border of the Axis.

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Allies land in Sicily same as in OTL. Difference is that with the defensive works in the East complete no planning for Kursk and a successful rescue of the Stalingrad army there are at all times half a million battle hardened E-front veterans stationed all across South Europe. As in OTL these are mostly in the Balkans but still a large enough portion is in south Italy to reassure Mussolini that while Sicily is lost, the allies are stopped there and fail to make significant headway in mainland Italy.

In this situation Stalin is furious with the allies. With continual German offers for peace and the industry of Manchuria a tempting target Stalin bails out of the war. Signing an armistice with Germany in the hopes that this will divert the two ideological enemies, Capitalism and its cousin, Fascism to devour each other while he gains the necessary manpower to breakthrough the river defenses. Only place for this is the PROC and its potential army of millions. Stalin calculates that he will be ready to strike against Germany again by 1946-47 with PROC help.

Stalin in essence trades the E-European SSR minors for China, Manchuria, Korea and potentially Japan if he can land there before the allies do. This is a good trade in his view.

Hitler in essence trades the total conquest of USSR for a secure home front and a potential stop to the air bombardment.

The western allies are most screwed by this, without USSR they will not be able to liberate Europe. In a strategy meeting they will decide to focus heavily on bombing Germany, developing the A bomb and focusing on taking out Japan before USSR does.

Over the course of the 1943-1946 the war peters out, no side is able to destroy the other. Only major territory to change hands is that south china will belong to the ROC, north china to the PROC and Korea entirely to the USSR with no south zone.

Following the peace between USSR and Germany most European countries slowly fall in line with Germany. Except for Turkey which will remain neutral as the crossing point between the 3 major alliances. To retain its sphere Germany slowly lets go of the fully centralized power granting its former conquests some rights and all of them willingly align with Germany. By 1946 the war is over. Several A bombs were dropped on Germany but their damage was less than that of a full strat bombing by B29's and the deployment of the Hbomb would take many years and even then it would be difficult if not impossible to convince the American populace to wipe out all of central Europe as would be neccesary to truly end the war. So eventually a peace treaty between the western powers and Axis powers are signed.

Italy loses all of its African colonies but gains the Yugoslavia coastline, Greece islands, Albania, Corsica is places under Italian control but immigration there is forbidden for any but Italian-French citizens and small border adjustment in the mountains between Italy and France.

Germany gains Alsace-Lorraine as well as Luxemburg and some BeNe border areas with large German minorities, Danzig, Polish Corridor, Austria, Sudetenland but has to form a new Czech republic has to be formed in the center and placed under allied observation. Allied observers will also be sent to the E-European countries to report on the conditions there, so "Final Solution" will be prevented. Göring will be executed as per peace treaty for his part in the procedure while most axis leaders will retain power. Hitler accepts this due to the failure of BoB by Göring. Peace is uneasy in Germany but Hitler names Speer his follower who slowly re-establishes some level of democracy in Germany albeit slowly.

France will be reformed between Free French and Vichy France. Country split and embroiled in civil strife but surprisingly quick to return to a great power status, former Axis territory in N-Africa given to France in compensation.

UK will retain most of its Empire and gain new parts from Japan, specifically the Indo-china area, that was given to Japan by Vichy. This continues to strain relations.

US occupies Japan, received compensation from Germany for U-Boat operations and in quick order returned to peace, albeit with a heavy presence in UK and Far-East Asia

India does not gain independence

Most of Africa remains colonial.

South America is hotly contested politically between the 3 major blocks.

Mankinds technological progress in 2010 is about 15-20 years ahead of its historical counterpart. Civil liberties are lesser in all alliances but to a certain extent freedom of speech and opinion is greater in US than historically.

This is the timeline i might write.

Thoughts, opinions, comments?

 

2points
1)correction :there were no regions with large German minorities at the BeNe bordernly Eupen with some 60000 Germans
2)generally :your if scenario is improbable,because WWII was also an ideological war in which a compromise peace had no place .

 

Thanks for the reply.

1, Yes, which is why BeNe countries come off almost scott clean.

2, And no major party sees it as a concession in the true sense. All major surviving belligerants sees it as a sort of victory.

and in fact most major parties fully expect either an all out global war to start again soon or at least the axis and the comintern to start bashing each others heads in. Both Hitler and Stalin think they are in the worst situation of the war(overestimate the other party) and need time to breath. Stalin because in this scenario the 43-44 winter the SU expended a great deal of its resources attacking the German defenses lead by Manstein. Su does the math and realizes that against a well entrenched Germany under very talented leadership the cost in manpower is something even the SU cant pay. SU calculates that it needs either a great source of MP (Which would be helping com-china to win the civil war then recruiting their army as cannon fodder against the German), or the allies to do considerably better. Or by the end of the war SU will be totally devastated economically far beyond OTL.

In this case SU and Germany come to an equitable understanding. Much like the Molotov - Ribbentrop treaty. They agree that Germany has the "right" to E-europe, but must return all Russian prisoners of war and withdraw all support for Japan and agree that Far East Asia is Cominterns "right". They both know fully well that they will start bashing each others heads in as soon as they gain a bit of strength first. SU views the allies lack of progress during 43-44 as proof that they don't plan to really attack Germany and will wait until both SU and Ger are exhausted before committing forces. Paranoid Stalin thinks its best to call a truce for a few years, let the allies bleed themselves against Germany while he secures millions of Chinese soldiers and his southern border.

Then 44 summer allies are up against full German might. They can hold on and keep bombing but at this point the public in UK and US see that Japan is defeated, France its own state again (Germany would need to liberate all its European minors for any chance of US-UK backing out) and the E front is quiet. While US-UK Gov's realize that it is absolutely moronic to go for a peace now. The people are fed up with the war.

Japan surrenders very early 1944 before the US 44 presidential elections.

Dewey against Rosevelt ends in a defeat for Rosevelt after Dewey reveals that Rosevelt knew before hand of the Pearl Harbor attacks but did not inform the soldiers. Thomas E. Dewey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia this was seriously considered by Dewey but not carried out due to the still ongoing war with Japan. Now with the war over, Dewey goes on the offensive with this information and ends up winning. A pro-isolation republican with a public furious at the previous, pro-war candidate informs UK that they will end the war before end of 1944 with or without UK agreeing to terms.

Dewey spent a large portion of his campaign announcing his plans for peaceful economy after the war while Rosevelt tried to rally the public to continue the war. As a part of his campaign Dewey got in contact with the Axis diplomatic crew to work out a peace treaty with the axis that would be implemented should he win. It called for:

Withdrawal from all territories occupied after 1936 except of those with historical Italian or German ties (could make a map of this) followed by allied garrisons in said areas (Bene, France, Scandinavia).

Return of all POW's

Partial demobilization on the western front.

War indemnities.

Agreement not to pursue military expansion against the west for any reason at any time in the future.

Germany under Hitler with the practical controls being in Speers hands by this time realizes that these are the best terms they could ever hope for and agree.

1944 winter Dewey and Hitler OR if by this point Hitler is assassinated, Speer sign an end of hostilities on the western front on a table with 2 legs in France and 2 legs in Germany with all Axis and Allied countries taking their turn in signing.

War in the West ends in winter 1944-45

War in the East ended in spring 1944

War against Japan ended summer 1944

POD being E-front stabilization by Germans, forcing SU to go help Com-China and gain more MP for a renewed offensive. Which pushes Japan out of the war, which pushes Rosevelt out which pushes Dewey in. Dewey runs on a pro-peace platform. Which pushes US to the negotiation table and Germany agrees to a peace. One event causes a chain of potential outcomes all of which were close but didn't happen historically.

Improbable but the war was filled with very improbable situations before (Vichy, Molotov, Winter war and so on)

 

Not sure why the focus is on Manstein. Brilliant commander, but no one person was gonna change the outcome of Barbarossa. That was a strategic error, not a tactical error. Therefore, the only way to solve that problem was by strategic remedy. That would have called for the Germans to outflank the Red Army in some way and draw them off the main battle line. It is doubtful the Germans could have pulled this off with their fighting capacity, although Rommel taking Suez may have given them a fleeting chance by moving aggressively to threaten Russia's southern sector along with Turkish help.

Regarding, the politics of your scenario: With Hitler, Churchill, and Stalin, WWII will not end without a big loser, especially after Barbarrossa was launched. First, Hitler would have to have been removed before the other two would even begin to think about a negotiated peace. Second, Hitler was manic when he thought he was winning, and suicidal when he thought he was losing. His personality alone invalidates your well constructed scenario. In short, Germany was going to win big, or flame out completely.

 

Lots of things I don't like in your scenario.

Main one is the "eastern puppet states" had the Germans won the support of Bielorussia Ukraina and the Baltics populations Barbarossa may well have been a success. The Nazis failed to focus on weakening the hold of the Communist regime on the people (like the Kaiser's Germans had succesfully done in WW1 against the Tzar) and didn't have the resources (especially logistics) for a military victory. But this requires replacing Hitler with a less racist leader, a different what-if altogether.

Stalin probably cannot make a peace short of the 1941 border and remain in power and the succession fights may well paralize the USSR for years.

IMO the westen Allies cannot land in Sicily against a Germany that has a strategic reserve and a still unbeaten Luftwaffe. In Sicily the Germans commited 3 divisions (HG, 15PzG and the paras) to what was essentially a delaying action, give them 10 and Husky is impossible.

The above are the main points, the ones below are "chrome".

The 1942/43 Germans didn't need lessons from the Finns on large scale Winter ops, Guerrilla would be a different story but that's not how the Germans fought.

Concentratng on fighters would be a mistake, the Germans need a bomber force as a mobile reserve to fight back the landings and limit the effects of allied sea power.

Hitler going progressively democratic is ridiculous, without the defeats he may not go off the deep end like he did but he still is a very sick personnality.

In a nutshell unless you remove Hitler (plane accident?) and put the military in charge your what if doesn't work, I would also suggest replacing most "puppet states" with "buffer states" to give Stalin a chance to save face and remain in power.