Welcome to the WWII Forums! Log in or Sign up to interact with the community.

Barbarossa is well planned & executed, much like the sickle cut was.

Discussion in 'What If - European Theater - Eastern Front & Balka' started by mjölnir, Feb 25, 2016.

  1. Tamino

    Tamino Doc - The Deplorable

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2011
    Messages:
    2,645
    Likes Received:
    305
    Location:
    Untersteiermark
    You're indeed merciful. ;)

    There were so many places here at this forum to find relevant answers, this for example: Why did Operation Barbarossa fail? And yet we have another Barbarossa enthusiast convincing us that the impossible was a viable possibility.

    Even if Barbarossa succeeded, so what. Britain promised never to surrender and the Britons keep their promises - we all know how the Sea Lion has ended. European part of the USSR was just a small fraction of the Giant at the East. The Russians would have returned to Berlin, sooner or later - to rape Helgas. ;) USA would have invaded Nazi Europe this way or another. So what if even Barbarossa has succeeded whatever the objectives were.
     
    LJAd likes this.
  2. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    Tamino,
    Britain was completely irrelevant in Europe (its army was completely useless and its navy totally irrelevant) and if Barbarossa had captured Murmansk, Odessa, Mariupol, Leningrad, Kharkov and Moscow within 2 months, Japan would have attacked the USSR, British Borneo (acquiring oil), Hong Kong, Burma & Malaya, instead of forcing the US into the war, so Vladivostok, north Sakhalin, etc, fall promptly to Japan, further isolating and taxing the USSR.

    Without Burma the US cannot supply China, which is also not receiving aid from the USSR (fighting on 2 fronts) and without Vladivostok and Murmansk, the US cannot supply the USSR

    Without US or British supplies and Moscow and fighting on 2 fronts, the USSR collapses rapidly. Similarly, without Soviet and American aid, soon after the USSR folds and Japan concentrates on China, Chiang falls.

    Germany & Japan are linked and have oil, rubber, iron, manganese, chromium, labour force, gold, platinum, grain, meat, etc, so Japan is free to capture Ceylon (acquiring more rubber, etc, and invaluable bases) and isolating India (Britain cannot get millions of servicemen from India), Similarly, Germany links with Iran and Iraq through the caucasus and is free to coax Turkey with Germany's allies Bulgaria and Romania into joining the axis or to invade it and then invade Syria, Jordan, Palestine, Egypt, etc,, so Britain has lost much of its oil, rubber, tin and the Empire, is bankrupt and American citizens will think twice about supporting for free a doomed cause.
     
  3. lwd

    lwd Ace

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    12,322
    Likes Received:
    1,245
    Location:
    Michigan
    From what you have written so far I think it's pretty clear I have a much better understanding of what war is about and military history than you do. The condescension only makes you look worse.

    Looking at just the last paragraph as an example. You may not expect me to see the difference but then your expectations have been frustrated on a regular basis have they not? Looking at a very small part of the picture doesn't give you a good overall impression either does it? Why should a weak front remain weak if it's the only one that is concentrated against? Oh and how many rail lines existed on that weak front? Of what capacity? If you want a deep penetration that among other things is quite critical.
     
  4. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    Why should a weak front remain weak if it's the only one that is concentrated against? Oh and how many rail lines existed on that weak front? Of what capacity? If you want a deep penetration that among other things is quite critical.

    lwd,
    The narrow fronts along the coasts remain weak because of deplorable Soviet logistics (especially so under German air control) and long distances for available armor. Also, because there are weak defenses and forces, the Panzers advance much faster than where there are formidable defenses or forces (Brody, Kiev, Bryansk, Minsk, Smolensk, etc,) so there is less time for the Soviets to respond. For example, I already explained that leaving the Romanians alone to take Odessa over months allowed the Soviets to ship men from the Crimea and cost the Romanians 27,000 men and months of several divisions' work. In contrast, in this plan Kleist isolates odessa on the first day and the heavy air support sinks the ships, so Odessa is captured by a German-Romanian force in days, while Klesit is advancing to Nikolaev and Maryupol.
    By the time some Soviet tanks arrive (most of them having malfunctioned or run out of petrol along the way), the Panzers will have alredy moved on (just as it happened in Gordno, etc,).

    As stated, OTL despite meager air support, the advance along the Baltic was so rapid that Manstein's and Höpner's small force was ordered to halt and waste an invaluable week. With heavier air and naval support and a stronger force advancing both from E Prusia-Poland and from Finland, the forces join in 7 days and infantry has to cover a much shorter distance & some of them debarkng in Riga, Tallin, etc, instead of marching all the way from the border to Leningrad, the worst possible option and the one used in Barbarossa.

    OTL,
    The only RR line in which trains were captured and could be used by the Germans from the first days of the war was in the Baltic.Another reason for striking there with force, instead of placing Guderian's and Hoth's large forces where trains will not reach them for months and where partisans can cause problems along long lines in forested areas.. However, as I have emphasized, shipping is the best option to move troops, materiel and supplies for very long distances and then use the trains, trucks and horses for correspondingly shorter distances.
     
  5. Tamino

    Tamino Doc - The Deplorable

    Joined:
    Nov 28, 2011
    Messages:
    2,645
    Likes Received:
    305
    Location:
    Untersteiermark
    .... hold on, you've forgotten the best theory of all: Heeresgruppe Afrika meets Army Group South in Palestine to close a gigantic pincer enclosing everything from Murmansk to Casablanca. They jointly exterminate all Jews who managed to escape from Europe and then they all jump quickly to India to finish the British Empire and have a cup of tea with the Japanese comrades in Calcuta.

    Jesus Christ. Are you serious or you are just kidding? Tell me please you're just joking otherwise you have a serious problem.
     
  6. green slime

    green slime Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    584
    You are as arrogant as you are juvenile. What's worse though, is that you are incapable of actually reading what multiple posters are telling you, that your idea is fanciful in the extreme, and full of blatant flaws. It is basically DoA.

    You can't drive panzers 1000 km (Memel - Riga - Parnu - Tallinn - Narva - Gatchina) through hostile territory along the Baltic coast in 7 days. It just isn't going to happen. The Germans are not capable of maintaining their original pace beyond a maximum operational depth from the starting point of 300 km. This is why Lithuania fell in three days, but it took 6-7 weeks to reach Leningrad. This fantasy of yours of some "weak flank" isn't. Even on this flank, solitary KVs held up the panzers. Jamming in more panzers does not speed up the rate of advance If anything, it increases your problems of supply, command and control, and road congestion. You continue to gloss over basic logistical issues.

    You can't sink the entire Soviet fleet on day 1, nor in the first week. You have not put together a plan showing you can do that in the least. Continuing to hand wave that does not make it any more feasible: a timetable, with dedicated resources, and reasonable expectations on the attrition of forces on both sides is required in order to make such extraordinary claims. Failure to present such a proper plan, means you aren't really committed to it either, so you should really stop making this claim.

    In the middle of Finland you can't push an infantry division 200 km through mosquito-infested trackless forested swamps in 7 days, and expect them to actually be capable of doing any co-ordinated fighting for any reasonable duration. There is a reason this front stood still for four years. This idea is pythonesque.

    When I first came here, this was all swamp. Everyone said I was daft to build a castle on a swamp, but I built in all the same, just to show them. It sank into the swamp. So I built a second one. And that one sank into the swamp. So I built a third. That burned down, fell over, and then sank into the swamp."
     
    Black6 likes this.
  7. KJ Jr

    KJ Jr Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2014
    Messages:
    3,148
    Likes Received:
    359
    Location:
    New England
    Any point concluded with a Monty Python reference wins.
     
  8. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    green
    Please pay attention.
    Höpner's Panzers from Memel and Poland meet Guderian's Panzers advancing south from Finland (bypassing and isolating Leningrad) in 7 days, a perfectly feasibly advance, given that OTL, Höpner with only 700 Panzer's and poor air support advanced so rapidly, that he was ordered to halt for a week That was despite 245 of his Panzers [including some very bad 35 (t), much less reliable and slower than the 38 (t)] losing days fighting 740 Soviet tanks (including some KV-1 and 2, which caused a lot of damage) near Raseinai. In this plan Raseniai does not take days (owing to a stronger Panzer, artillery and LW force in the area), so the advance of all 850 of Höpner's Panzers is much faster than OTL and with fewer losses.

    The LW can certainly sink or disable 2 pre WW I battleships, 2 light cruisers, several dozen submarines (many of them very small), a dozen destroyers (many of them old) all of them with modest AAA, each bomber flying several missions a day from Finland to attack Tallin, Kronstadt and Leningrad and from Memel to attack Riga. Some of the mine-layers & sweepers, torpedo boats, repair ships, etc, can be wipe out the following day.

    Pearl Harbor involved 352 very weak and vulnerable planes dropping just 49 16 inch, 800 kg shells with fins in high altitude, level flight, of which only 1 of which caused major damage (others missed or didn't explode) and 40 torpedoes and the Vals attacking planes and installations. 352 sorties including fighters, so only about 240 single engine bombing sorties.

    In contrast, in this plan there are Stukas, Bf 110 and Ju 88 accurately dive bombing and He 111 in low altitude, level bombing, with much heavier bombs than those the Kates and Vals could carry. There are 140 Bf 109 protecting the bombers and 70 each Bf 110, Stuka, Ju 88 and He 111 and each performs on average 3 missions on June 22, 1941 from nearby bases. That is 210 heavy strafing missions with 20 mm cannon, etc, and dropping 420 250 kg bombs, 210 strong, single engine dive bombing missions with 500 kg or 1,000 kg bombs and 420 twin engine bombing missions, all of this against fewer, weaker and older ships, with less AAA and stronger planes (armor and self sealing tanks and most with 2 engines, which can fly back even if an engine is shot out) than in PH, so you get an idea of the damage.
    Whereas IJN pilots had to fly hundreds of km at low speed in their underpowered, overloaded planes and carrying a lot of fuel for the long trip and their planes caught fire with a few rounds and encountered heavy AA fire on the second wave, in this case the pilots fly a short distance, with moderate fuel and maximum bomb load, at higher speed (more powerful planes and no need to save fuel). Compare the damage by a vulnerable Zero strafing with just 60 rounds per 20 mm cannon and dropping two 60 kg bombs with the damage caused by tough Bf 110, dropping two 250 kg bombs and carrying 180 rounds per 20 mm cannon.
     
  9. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    Winding back:
    On June 19 Manstein realizes that Stalin is bending over backwards to delay war as long as possible, so he orders the rapid invasion of Lithuania only on June 20 with extremely heavy air and naval support. Stalin and the Stavka are completely surprised, but Stalin knows that it is to late to save Lithuania and that declaring war over it is not very smart. He orders massive reinforcement of the central border, where he is certain that the main offensive will take place (Soviets reports the wooden tanks there and Stalin, Timoshenko, Budyonny, Voroshilov, Shaposhnikov, Zhukov, etc like everybody in this thread, think linearly, expect a frontal attack and cannot conceive of the main thrusts along the protected flanks and in distant Murmansk).
     
  10. green slime

    green slime Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    584
    mjöl

    Please pay attention.

    They tried, they failed. Even in the German lake of the Baltic. Not during the whole of 1941, nor the next year either. So there is no way it is all happening on the first day or even the first week.
     
  11. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    They didn't wipe out the fleet only because they didn't realize that it was important and they put the bulk of planes in the center. In September, when she became a problem shelling the army, they sank Marat with 2 bloody 1,000 kg bombs (4 times the weight of those dropped by the VAL and 2.2 x the weight of those dropped by the SBD) from Stuka. October Revolution was of the same vintage, everything else was much more vulnerable and could be easily sunk with 250 and 500 bombs, the subs, etc, even with 100 kg bombs.

    Stating that something could not be done, because it wasn't done is austrich behavior.
     
  12. green slime

    green slime Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    584
    "Didn't realize it was important"... because they were supposed to have won the war by then with the Soviets collapsing. But that didn't happen...

    It wasn't important, in fact, the sinking of the Marat was rather pointless, wasn't it?

    But why let the truth get in the way of your fantasy?

    Neither was entirely successfully sunk... so much for doing things right. Rather like a wet bag of flour.

    Oktyabrskaya Revolyutsiya was badly damaged on 21 September 1941 by three bomb hits on her bow that knocked out two of her turrets. She was sent for repairs at the Ordzhonikidze Yard on 23 October, although she was hit by more bombs on two different occasions while under repair until November 1942. Her AA armament was further reinforced during this period and Oktyabrskaya Revolyutsiya returned to her mission of providing fire support during the Siege of Leningrad, the Leningrad–Novgorod Offensive in January 1944 and the Vyborg–Petrozavodsk Offensive in June 1944. She was the last Soviet battleship to fire shots in anger on 9 June 1944 during the latter offensive.

    Marat was lightly damaged by German 15-centimeter (5.9 in) guns on 16 September and had her bow blown off on 23 September by two bomb hits. One of which was claimed by Lieutenant Hans-Ulrich Rudelof III./StG 2 flying a Junkers Ju 87B 'Stuka', that detonated her forward magazine. She sank in the shallow water from progressive flooding, but was raised and used as a floating artillery battery for the rest of the war using two, and later, three of her gun turrets.

    Continue dreaming, of how Germans auto-sink all fleets in 1 day... keep snorting that white powder that makes you so happy. We can all see it's flour, but, whatever floats your boat. Or sinks it, as the case may be.
     
  13. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    The troops receiving 12 inch shells did not find the sinking of Marat pointless and the Soviets considered her guns so valiable than they raised her and placed a granite slab to reinforce her deck.

    But, I am wasting my time and should let you keep your head in the hole.
     
  14. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2012
    Messages:
    1,224
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    Pohojanmaa, Finland
    No offence, but the German 163. ID proved not to be very useful in the South either. Not that it necessarily was such a bad division, but they just did not have the special skills needed to move, live and fight in Eastern Karelia. They were city-boys from Central Europe, when hunters and loggers of the forests were needed - plenty of which Finland had.

    To be fair, the Karelian Isthmus (towards Leningrad) indeed probably would have suited German troops better, since that area was more populated and it had better infrastructure. But then there's the most important political aspect, which you so far have ignored. Here I give it to you again:

    "How is Germany going to make Finland to join the Axes and officially join the Barbarossa? Without that it would have been impossible for neutral Finland to break her treaties, by allowing German forces all over the country and letting them to attack from Finland. I can't see how that could have happened."

    And still there's no incentive for the Finns to bang also their heads on the Murmansk natural wall of wilderness. You don't seem to realise, that it's not the distance in kms but the obstacles to be tackled with. AFAIK Libya was a walk in a park in that comparison.

    It's totally different to drive in desert, steppe or fields compered to driving in dense forests and swamps. While shipping supplies to Petsamo - or rather to Port of Liinahamari, to be precise - might not have been the problem, getting them further was.

    Although the distance to the troops of Geb.K Norwegen towards Murmansk was short, the Germans had to use mules. Further South the supplies for XXXVI Corps in Salla towards Kantalahti had to be driven hundreds of kms by using one, bad road. Supplies coming by boat via the Baltic Sea could use the RR up to Rovaniemi (capital of Lapland and the HQ of AOK Norwegen), but then it was that same bad road again for hundreds of kms.

    Of course strong forces can build a lot of things, like the Germans actually did. It just takes a lot of time and effort - and there's a limit how large troops can operate in any given area.

    In the Winter War the Finns did not expect the soviets to attack with forces larger than a regiment per road between Lake Laatokka (Ladoga) and the Arctic Ocean, because of the logistics issues. Instead they sent at least one division per road.

    That proved to be too much. The divisions shoe-horned on one single narrow roads were unable to operate. The troops stood still in single long columnns many kms long - men, cars, lorries, tanks, cannons. The soviets were still able to advance, because the Finnish forces were so weak. If the Finns had had the same amount of troops and weapons as in the Continuation War, the soviet losses would have doubled.

    Think Lapland as Thermopylae - there the Spartans were able to stop the overwhelming Persian troops, because they could not use their numbers in a mountain pass. The forests and the swamps were the mountains in Lapland and the single bad road the pass. Pouring in more men and tanks is not going to improve things much, if any.

    I don't question your idea of using the paras for what they could do best. I also have no doubt that they initially would have succeeded in your scenario. But I DO believe, that they couldn't have been successfully supplied for and that the infantry wouldn't have reached them soon enough. The paras would have ended fighting alone with little supplies, like in the Market Garden.
     
    Kai-Petri and Otto like this.
  15. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2012
    Messages:
    1,224
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    Pohojanmaa, Finland
    I basically do agree with your post, but still few adjustments...

    Although there certainly were more than enough of "mosquito-infested trackless forested swamps", it was not 100 % of that. In places it was a bit easier - but still not easy. Your original conclusion is still correct.

    That certainly was one of the reasons for the Germans to have their front to stand still for abt three (not four) years. However that was not the reason for the Finns to wait for abt 2.5 years.
     
    Otto likes this.
  16. green slime

    green slime Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    584
    You are the one being obstinate, as evidenced by the number of posters railing against your crack-pot ideas.

    Your evidence of how easy it is to sink the entire navy isn't; the ship isn't effectively sunk, if the guns can be brought to bear again, and that in short order.

    The shells from the Marat were only efficient, because the Germans proved themselves incapable of conquering Leningrad. Or is the guns of the Marat your excuse why they didn't?

    Flour-Troll, you are not wasting your time, but everyone else's.
     
    Tamino likes this.
  17. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
    Leningrad is a shallow harbor, just like PH and Tarento, Marat was as sunk as some of the USN and Italian battleships, which were raised and repaired. Only Marat's stern was raised so that some turrets could fire and additional bulkheads installed, so some compartments could be filled with concrete. A lot of work, because those shells were quite destructive and had a long reach.

    Leningrad was not taken because
    1) AGN was by far the weakest, it received the fewest replacements and its Panzers and many of the planes supporting it were sent away to Moscow for a while (when it was too late to help there and after Hitler had ruined Moscow by sending Guderian to Kiev and Hoth to Leningrad, wasting the decent weather and weeks of tank fighting tank,so single handedly, Hitler ensured that both Moscow and Leningrad failed)
    2) Hitler changed the plan and daftly ordered not to take Leningrad and to let the people starve (not realizing that that force could move on to attack elsewhere, that Leningrad was an invaluable port and its industry kept producing during the siege).
    3) The tanks were halted for a crucial week.which allowed the Soviets to deploy armor, men, cannon and to build better defenses in the area.
    4) Like all army groups, it received no new tanks to replace the heavy losses of its tanks for months (Hitler initially ordered that all new tanks and spares remain in Germany), but having started with fewer and worse tanks than the other army groups, its ability to fight declined more rapidly.
    5) German cannon, bomb and shell production was ridiculously low in 1941 and early 1942 (before Speer) and huge quantities were wasted reducing pockets in Kiev, Bryansk, Minsk, Smolensk, etc, fighting in Rostov, Kharkov, Rzhev, Moscow (which was also bombed pointlessly, with heavy losses of the few planes), etc, and laying siege for 8 months to Sevastopol (where Manstein received weak and sporadic armor and air support and he faced coastal and naval guns (because the ships were not sunk on the first day). Accordingly, there was completely inadequate bombardment and bombing for a city the size of Leningrad.
    6) Hitler did not invade Lithuania on August 24, 1939, when the secret protocol of the R-M pact entitled him to do it. Had Barbarossa started from the Lithuania-Latvia border, AGN would have suffered fewer losses along the way and arrived faster in Leningrad, with less wear and more munitions.
    7) Leningrad was attacked from distant East Prussia and Poland, instead of from nearby Finland, so it had plenty of time to react and prepare, while German forces weakened along the way and German logistics were strained.
     
  18. Karjala

    Karjala Don Quijote

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2012
    Messages:
    1,224
    Likes Received:
    115
    Location:
    Pohojanmaa, Finland
    For the THIRD time: please answer my question!

    How on your scenario is Germany going to make Finland to join the Axis and take part in the Barbarossa? That alliance is definitely needed first, in order to get Finland to attack out-right on 22nd June and to let German army to launch massive air and land attacks towards Leningrad from Finland.

    In real life it did not happen. How are you going to make that fundamental change?
     
    Black6 likes this.
  19. Otto

    Otto Spambot Nemesis Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2000
    Messages:
    9,781
    Likes Received:
    1,818
    Location:
    DFW, Texas
    Im not much of an alternate historian, but I'm reading this thread with interest. Some solid historical illumination going on here and it's appreciated. I've duly saluted all the major thread participants, but I do have one minor observation: this thread is at its best when it is focused in the historical detail and not so great when the focus is personal jabs. Let's continue to keep the contributuons constructive.
     
  20. mjölnir

    mjölnir New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2016
    Messages:
    315
    Likes Received:
    2
     

Share This Page