A few points. (legal note - Not in any way am I disparaging the efforts of the US airmen) 1) How many planes actually bombed? 2) The large slice of luck comes into it more because the dive bombers arrived at almost exactly the right time. Too late for the CAP to notice that there were 2 threats and react accordingly, and too early for the CAP to have regrouped after chasing down the torpedo bombers. Oh, and the matter of the Japanese carriers being in the middle of a turn-around, and therefore rather vulnerable.