Belgian Alert May 1940

Historically the Belgian gonverment had authorized a partial mobilization of the Belgian army when Germany & France went to war in September 1939. Formations and equipment of the third wave divsions was acceerated, expanded conscription of the 1940 class of young men was authorized, additional equipment purchases funded. When the German army & air force attacked on 10 May the Belgian forces as a whole were better than 50% strength and the key forward units had some 75% of their reserivists called up. However the Army was still caught by suprise on 10 May. Other than the key units most were still at or below 60% with many 2d & 3rd wave divsions near 30% or less. Further many soldiers mobilized the previous year had been granted extended leave to take care of personal and business affairs, and a liberal weekend leave policy had caused many others to be at home. Guards were thin and their response forces reduced, command posts manned by skeleton staff. The Germans were able to take advantage of these conditions, capturing many critical points along the border, particularly bridges long the Albert Cannal and road junctions in the Ardennes. That wrecked or damaged the Belgian delay plan significantly unhinging the French Dyle plan.

So WI the Belgians had better prepared their army? My PoD extends back to late winter. The senior Belgian leaders are persuaded a much larger mobilization is called for, and it is worth the economic pain. The period from very late April through mid June is judged the most likely time for a large scale German offensive. The object is to first warn off the Germans, second to allow a larger shakedown of the Belgian army and allow further training. The target is to have the 1st wave division at 90% strength, 2d Wave to 80%, and Third Wave to 50% or better strength by 31 April. A expanded training regime will be organized during the Marceh/April weeks as well. Finally, from late April leaves will be restricted and all units in the forward border defence zone will be on alert.

My first question is would this be economically or organizationally impossible for the Belgians?

Second how are the Germans to react? The final itteration of Plan Yellow was broadly set in place by early March and just the details adjusted after that. Would it be necessary for them to alter the plan broadly, or just in its details. That is could the sickle cut concept remain in place?

3rd would forward defense units manned at nearly full strength, on alert; be able to siginificantly stall the German spearheads. That is could they buy enough time for the French to advance their army and set in properly according to the Dyle plan?

My take is this would either stall the historical version of Plan Yellow by several critical days, or the Germans would rewrite the Plan, yet again.

 

Back then it was considered a declaration of war if you mobilized your army. That is one of the key elements, the Belgian Army did not want to give the Germans a reason to invade.

Then again the Germans actually wanted the Allied to do the Dyle plan, so the Sichelschnitt would put the Allied main forces into a pocket as what happened, except for the escape from Dunkirk.

http://www.military.ch/abegglen/papers/Westfe1.gif

 

I bet it turns into a bloodbath for the Germans. Slowing them down for a few more days gives the French and British time to come up, perhaps win some minor victories. The French showed they could fight well even after Dunkirk. With the British and Belgians at their side it's all over for Hitler in 1940.

 

I'd not considered a complete mobilization would lead to a decisive defeat for the Germans. At least not imeadiatly in 1940.

As for a defacto DoW, how did it go with the partial mobilization ordered in 1939. That did bring the Belgians up considerablly in strength. Ditto for the Dutch. They also had been calling up reservists and taking other actions through the winter and spring. Cant recall the actual level they brought the army to , but I dont think it was trivial. In either case how did the Germans respond, other than adjusting their offensive plan accordingly.

 

Supposing all the Germans manage to do is create a bulge, that leaves them overextended and vulnerable from three sides, resupplying via bad roads. Hitler starts with the not one step backwards crap, and someone blows him up. The end.

 

I supose its possible for the German to be stalled like that, but I'd not considered that good a outcome for the Allies in this situation. Did not think they were that strong. I'd seen games where the German player had a rougher time pulling of a victory, but that was from clever Allied play or a German players mistakes, not from changes in OB or values of the game pieces. It does not look difficult to model this on the game board with a variant of a existing game for the 1940 campaign.