Codebreaking... or not...

CrazyD88

sorry for stairing topic the wrong way of topic crazy,

just felt like good for the goose is good for the gander.

i think fredriek knows were im coming from, and im glad to listen to his and your comments as well as will respectfully digest them.

loses of any kind just are not lucky is all, just my point and ill leave it at that.
sorry if i ruffled anyones feathers.

pt

[ 18 July 2002, 12:32 PM: Message edited by: PTBOAT ]

 

Hi Crazy -

Re the Kursk thing - I'm on shaky ground here. I've read about this but just now cannot remember where.

I know that Carell ( again ! ) writing before the 'Ultra secret' came out devotes a whole chapter of 'Scorched Earth' to speculating about 'Citadelle's betrayal, blaming it on an anonymous spy called 'Werther'. I'll try to find some more.

Agree with the 'What Ifs' about the Atlantic. The Battle of Britain would have been won with or without Ultra - but the Atlantic ? I'm really not sure.

 

For any one really interested, have a read of ;-

www.cl.cam.ac.uk/Research/Security/Historical/hinsley.html

Where Harry Hinsley himself indulges in a little ULTRA 'what iffery'

 

GREAT POST MARTIN!

I THOUGHT THIS WAS ESPECIALLY INTERESTING;

The Italians only ran one machine and it was a baby really compared with the Enigma. It was a machine built by a firm called Hagelin (we called it C-38). The American armed forces used it occasionally, but it was easily broken. We broke it. It didn't come into use until the beginning of '41 and we broke it by June '41.

It was a very valuable cipher for shipping in relation to North African operations but it wasn't a cryptanalytical problem of the kind I have been describing in the case of the German ciphers.

Ironically the Italians, except for that one cipher and also for one they used for their diplomats, didn't use machines. They used book ciphers, and ironically we couldn't read the Italian book ciphers for the army, the navy and the airforce after they brought new ones in between June and November 1940 preparatory to or as a consequence of their own entry into the war.

Book ciphers proved to be invulnerable when the machinery proved not to be invulnerable!

And as I say the Italians occasionally, who rather looked down on machine ciphers, warned the Germans that they thought that there was evidence that the way the allies behaved suggested that maybe they were reading the German ciphers. And the Germans said 'Pooh, pooh, we are alright!' Apart from occasional suspicions, those precautions I described, as used by the Allies, worked

----------------
WOW! THIS IS A EXCERP FROM THE LINK provided above by MARTIN BULL. very interesting read.

 

That is why we are all here, PT. To have nice argues about war. But I would not like that we start being disrespectful and agressive. Here we are for talk! And I love this place because I can stand of the side of my country and not being called a nazi (oh... wait... with some exceptions...). But it is nice to have some "hot" chats oftenly. They are very easy to provoke, anyway can post a thread like the following: "What if Hitler had been helped for UFOs?" But we most be mature to create a hot but mature chat about war. And here we are mature.

 

Martin, the Carell bit was what I was referring to. Don't think I've read it anywhere else. But wasn't the US very protective of the fact that they had cracked the German codes? I was under the impression that information was not readily shared from either side between Russia and the other allies. Considering this, and the promptness with which the Russians recieved info, I would tend to think that that would rule out any significant reliance on broken codes. At least not the codes the US and Britian broke...

And the battle of the Atlantic certainly would have been tough. I believe it was in 1942 that for a few months, the U-Boats actualy were sinking more boats than the US could produce. And that was when the codes had already been broken. Without the codes, lack of resources would have become a huge problem for Britian.

 

This is where it all gets tricky with ULTRA.
The Allies needed to be very careful with disclosure of sources ( which the Russians distrusted ) in case the Germans deduced that the codes were broken.

After the war, during the 'Cold War', the Russians certainly didn't want to give any impression that they had received intelligence from the Allies - they wanted to portray Kursk, etc as 'all their own work'.

 

Food for thought. The thing that really impesses me is the speed. Carell claims that the russians knew within a couple days about the plans for Kursk. Even if Carell is exaggerating, that is still pretty impressive, even by today's standards.
I have also read in "A War to be Won", Williamson (?) and Murray (?)(no access to book right now) an interesting theory- they claim that by later int eh war the russians actually had some of the best intelligence services of anyone- thanks to the Germans! The idea these authors forward is that the german disdain for the Russian "subhumans" actually allowed the Russians to develope very good intelligence against the germans. Higher-ups in the Third Reich simply refused to believe that the russians could outdo them in intelligence.

 

I think the period you are talking about is after the German Navy added two more wheels to their machine. This blinded the British. And at the same time, the Germans were reading our codes. I believe his is referred to as the second happy time.

As for Kursk, i also recall somewhere that the British knew about it, but not sure if they shared the info. If they did, it may have just confirmed what the Russians already knew.

 

Yep- the "seond happy time" is what I was referring to. Didn't know that the Germans had foiled the brits for a while though.
I was basically using that as an analogy. Clearly, the U-boats were w major threat to England, as Churchill famously mentioned. And the U-Boats did cause major problems as it was; without any codebreaking, this could only have been worse.

And on Kursk- let me clarify- I'm SURE that the Brits and US knew about Kursk at some early point. My only contention is that they probably did not share this info with Russia, and even if they did share, said sharing IMO would not account for nearly the amount of info the Russians had in the timely manner they had it...

 

The second happy time was in spring 1942, but it was not against the British. It was when Dönitz took his U-boats to the American coast and later the Caribean. Then we showed them they were not safe. Certainly, 1.200.000 tons of shipping were sunk in January and February. That was the moment when Dönitz put the fourth wheel in the Enigma. But it was until May-June 1942 when the big losses started, this time in the very middle of the Atlantic. A million tons of shipping were going to the bottom of the sea. There was when Churchill and the British were most worried. Because the American materials and troops would have not been able to reach Britain if the situstion continued that way. But thanks to the radars and the breaking of the 4-wheeled Enigma the losses started to grow. Finally, in winter 1942-1943 with all the new weaponry introduced the U-boats had a third "happy time" which lasted a very few months until May, when the hunter was hunted: 41 U-boats were lost in a month! We lost the battle of the Atlantic that month.

And about "Zitadelle", I meant that the Western allies, who were reading our decodified messages obviusly knew about the major offensive in Kursk. They passed the information to the Soviets. But they already know nearly all thnaks to conventional spies.

 

The second happy time was in spring 1942, but it was not against the British. It was when Dönitz took his U-boats to the American coast and later the Caribean. Then we showed them they were not safe. Certainly, 1.200.000 tons of shipping were sunk in January and February. That was the moment when Dönitz put the fourth wheel in the Enigma. But it was until May-June 1942 when the big losses started, this time in the very middle of the Atlantic. A million tons of shipping were going to the bottom of the sea. There was when Churchill and the British were most worried. Because the American materials and troops would have not been able to reach Britain if the situstion continued that way. But thanks to the radars and the breaking of the 4-wheeled Enigma the losses started to grow. Finally, in winter 1942-1943 with all the new weaponry introduced the U-boats had a third "happy time" which lasted a very few months until May, when the hunter was hunted: 41 U-boats were lost in a month! We lost the battle of the Atlantic that month.

And about "Zitadelle", I meant that the Western allies, who were reading our decodified messages obviusly knew about the major offensive in Kursk. They passed the information to the Soviets. But they already know nearly all thanks to conventional spies.

 

PT:

I do not want to be rude. But I disagree in many of your thoughts. First of all I want to tell you that I was taught by the closest person to me (my grandfather, a veteran of war who lived his youth in the nazi Regime and that fought, suffered and was wounded severely for his country and Führer). He taught me not to be ashamed of what my country was or what I did. I use the we because I am talking of my country (Germany is Germany all the time: the Holy Germanic Roman Empire, Prussia, Bavaria, Württenberg, Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, Eastern or Western Germany, even Austria). The men who fought, died and comitted crimes were my fellow countrymen part of a people and a country which stills being the same. Should I believe what I read in books, what I watch on TV or what my grandfather, who experienced it lively, told me?

I know you cannot understand my points of view because you would have to be German to know it. Being an American, the winner country with unbombed soil, it is very easy to point out about the Holocaust and stuff. But when you talk of those 100 civilians and 299.900 soldiers (yes, they were humans with lifes and dear families) but you cannot compare that suffering with the suffering that experienced French, British, Germans, Italians, Poles and Russians. It is not the same to receive a telegram in your nice farm in... let's say Alabama, than watching how your 13-years-old boy is burnt alive in front of your eyes, while you are hidden in the remaining rubble of your house in Berlin... I know I am being severe and cruel, but the truth is that way.

You are the mightiest and richest country on Earth now. I am just telling you that you should act nicely and be worth of it. Because you have not been very kind at all...

I do not want to get into a more political and discussing argue here.

 

The Germans were reading British Naval codes almost a much a we were reading theirs all through the war.

 

Hi guys; If you take Ultra and the breaking of the German codes out of the picture the outcome will not change. The war would have lasted longer but would have ended the same way. The Battle of Britain was won in the air not the sea. Yes, shipping losses would have been considerably higher but men and materials would have made it. In the Pacific Midway was crucial but we have survived. By this point the US was building ships at a fast enough rate to replace losses. Also, the lack of Ultra might have brought the "bomb" into play alot sooner. Who knows, Germany may have been on the recieving end of one of them. Friedrich: you and I have had this talk before, Britain would have held out due to the fact that Hitler wasnt always playing with a full deck. Had he put more faith in his combat generals Britain wouldnt have been invaded but forced into submission by the Luftwaffe and the Wermacht would have not allowed anybody to escape from Dunkirk, they had the remains of the British army trapped and then let them get away. The Japanese were spread out to far to control even the territories thay had already captured so it was just a matter of time before Allied forces swept them back to were they came from.

 

I don't see how he lack of Ultra would have meant the Americans getting the A-Bomb sooner. If anything, it would have allowed he Germans to get hold of it first. And then things would have changed

[ 18 July 2002, 05:38 PM: Message edited by: Bish OBE ]

 

General der Infanterie Friedrich H

LET S JUST AGREE THAT WE disagree, ok?

i 100% understand your logic, and i feel bad that you have a strong distaste for the problems with my homeland today.

I understand fred, have you ever visited a UNITED STATES family?
if you have not you should, as far as your talking about suffering its not right, know one doubts that including me.

7 uncles in ww2, including my dad. My aunt has numbers engraved in her skin to make her remember every day. Words like yours dont make her feel better i know. So as people deflect the real accounts of what happened to someone elses victory which really wasnt a victory as far as the world loses go then i tend to disagree.

I agree to disagree, realizing i wont change my mind as you will not. im sorry if you take my thoughts personally, but it seems that my thoughts are taken as immflammitory becuase i state them in a different mannor.

so how about white flag on both sides? ill agree to that mate.

p.s. i dont think you are rude at all for stating your opinions. opinions are a great thing, its when they cause harm there over the top.
no harm done fredrik

[ 18 July 2002, 05:58 PM: Message edited by: PTBOAT ]

 

OK. We need an armistice here.

I just do not agree in something: Do not call me all those nicks, please. Just call me Friedrich, please.

 

Hi Bish; I didnt mean that the US would have had the bomb sooner. I'm saying that they might have used it it sooner.

 

ty Friedrich, us americans are bad with fancy names i apologize.