I'm not sure I agree with the first. The problem for Germany was that in the war as it developed there wasn't a lot that they could do given the relative strengths of the naval forces. If Germany develops too strong a navy prior to the war then the UK will respond quicker as well. With the war that Hitler initially planned on fighting he only needed to match the French navy and the KM did that pretty well. Matching the RN was simply out of the question in any foreseeable time frame. Enigma was important but Huff Duff may have played a more important role in the battle of the Atlantic. By the time Churchill came to power the British were already at war. I suspect they would have fought on even if Chamberlin had stayed in power. Hitler did have some issues with the big picture but IMO even more with the law of averages. If you continue to gamble you are going to loose eventually and if a single loss or even a couple close together can wipe you out then continuing to roll the dice is a loosing strategy.