Italy neutral

Okay, say Mussolini falls down a flight of stairs and breaks his neck in the early 30's and is replaced by someone not willing to work with Hitler. For example a communist or a moderate.
How would WW2 have been different?

 

Some historical acts would never have taken place...sob!

There would have never been DAK and Rommel´s great tactical battles of Africa, and the spring 41 attack to Yugoslavia and Greece would have been different, as these both were cases where Germany came to help Italy in distress. maybe barbarossa would have begun on may 15, as first decided? Then again the right flank is here showing its ugly head! Any better ideas?

 

I would have meant to have many less problems. No DAK, no Crete, but perhaps the Balcans... That right flank does seem awful... But certainly it would have helped "Barbarossa" a lot.

 

I was thinking some of the same things. Plus I read somewhere Kesselring had close to a million men on the Gustav line. They could have been useful East or West. Probably West to throw the Allies back in to the sea, then head east to stem the red tide. I don't know how the Allies would justify declaring war on Italy, especially if it were not fascist.

 

A million men in Italy?! HA! No way...

There were never more than 20 divisions in Italy, no more than 400.000 men.

 

I thought the number was a little high. But 400,000 is still a hefty number. Ill have to check that source.

 

Friedrich, Ive found my source

In John Tolands book "The Last 100 Days" he cites a Colonel Dollmann as having said "Germany was in too good a bargaining position to bow to unconditional surrender. There was still an intact and undefeated army of 1,000,000 men in Italy." Perhaps the Colonel was exaggerating, but this is definetly where I got the figure from. Perhaps 1 million men total, including 400k on the Gustav line, but thats the figure I got.

 

Whatever your source is, is definately wrong. There were 20 divisions only. How do you think that a million men would fit into Itlay? That's absurd. The German army had 5.000.000 men throughout the war, from 1939-1945. It is impossible that there were a million in Italy!!! There were like 250.000 in North Africa until 1943, when they stopped existing, like 400.000 in all Italy, 800.000 in France and the West and the rest in the East, like 2.000.000... At his best moment, Keßelring did not have more than 400.000 men in Italy. It is logic!!!

 

A Neutral Italy?

Ok lets say someone like Balbo takes charge in the mid-30's.

Everyone has concentrated on the benefits to Germany, but the British would have been soooo grateful.

The All Red Route to India is secure. Millions of tons of shipping are released from the Cape round-trip and instead go through the Med'. We can buy weapons from Italy (as we had suggested in 1939 to Mussolini) in return for favourable deals on oil and raw materials which Germany cannot afford to offer.

The British Carriers and Battleships at Alexandria can support Convoys or be deployed in SE Asia. The divisions tied up in North Africa could have been used to fulfill Churchills dream of retaking Norway.

All sorts of options...

Jumbo

 

I agree, 1 mil is likely far too many for just Italy. I do want to know how many men were on the gustav line in '44 though...Ill check around.

Jumbo, interesting point about Norway. Perhaps with Norway cleared, the Allies could halt the shipment of Swedish oar to Germany. This could have shortened the war. However since North Africa would not be a front, more troops for Barbarossa would have been available...that would have lengthened it. It might have ended up the same.

What Id also like to know is if Italy had anything (oil, oar, etc.) that Germany would really want? If Italy were neutral, would Germany have had a reason to invade her?

 

Italy proper had nothing the Germans really wanted that the Italians couldn't sell. Albania is different. I don't know when it became such a major Chrome producer, but that is certainly a useful commodity.

The irony is, as Italy scuttled about East Africa looking for oil they were sat on top of millions of barrels of it in Libya.

Jumbo

 

Even if there would have been no Italian nor North African theatres, that meant not a lot men more for "Barbarossa". Perhaps another army added to the eleven already there... A little more aeroplanes and materials... But nothing very significant.

 

Not exactly--at the end of the war--there were still appx 7 million Germans in uniform. I cant remember the source I got this from but does make sense, when you take an account of the vast territories still held, and all the volunteers, conscripts etc, that were still in service with the German arms.

 

PS, I remember my source. Today there are appx 3-4 million ww2 German vets still living. This source is from the US Air Force's Command Chaplain of the Air Force. As he stated at my uncles funeral last year. He cited that appx 10 million ww2 US vets were still living, appx 7 million German vets. These vets as of 2000, were passing away at the rate of 5,000 a week, as of 2001, it has sadly increased to about 1,000 a day and getting worse.

The USAF Command Chaplain, also does military funerals for German vets as well who are living in the USA. There are appx, 400,000 to 1 million ww2 German vets living in the USA and in England.

What this Chaplains sources are--I do not know--all I know is that it is part of his job to know these things.

 

Seven millions? Perhaps, if you take on account every man recruited from 1933-1945, from Hitlerjugend's boys till old men. Germany had a population of 20.000 men during WWII. And well, seven is plausible.

But there were never more than 400.000 in Italy.

And I don't think there are so many Germans in USA, more less so many vets.

 

Nope--I have to sadly disagree with you here. In total there were appx 15 million German males, in uniform in ww2. This is including Boys, H.J. Rad/Wehrmacht and Police units, and SA units.

 

I forgot to include the older men of the Volkstrum, and the Stomach battalions etc.

German in ww2 had appx 80 million in their population.

[ 08 August 2002, 02:36 PM: Message edited by: C.Evans ]

 

No way possible!!! Germany had a total population of 50.000.000 people in WWII... 55% are women and only an eight of the entire population are men in military age... But counting ALL men in uniform, perhaps we could reach 10 million. No more.

 

Friedrich

Are you including all the Volksdeutsche as well? Perhaps the larger figure also includes these. Was the German population not 70 millions with the absorption of Austria and the Sudeten Germans?

It's just a thought...

Jumbo

 

Hehehe, I had forgot about those...