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Japan and Germany invade US through a "neutral" Mexico.

Discussion in 'What If - European Theater - Eastern Front & Balka' started by OpanaPointer, Dec 31, 2009.

  1. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    The problem for the Mexicans would be a tough one. One way or the other the Axis is going to go through Mexican territory in this scenario. So which shall it be, cooperation now i the hope that they will be more interested in the US than in Mexico, or hope that the isolationist US will be interested in anything outside their borders? In this what-if it's by no means certain the US would react militarily to Axis forces on Mexican soil. And the Axis, with the US out of the way, could afford to think long term, meaning they might not be interested in Mexico at all. This isn't a land grab, it's a play to eliminate the last serious enemy they have, the last "decadent democracy". The Axis could then look at consolidating their gains on the contiguous landmasses they have control of.

    So, how do Canada and Australia react to this?
     
  2. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    Yes, I agree. Jimmy Stewart was a very conservative Republican, but certainly no isolationist; he joined the AAF almost a year before Pearl Harbor. In any event, he was too young (33 years of age) in 1940 to run for President.

    Clark Gable was old enough to qualify as a presidential candidate in 1940, and his politics were conservative Republican, although his wife, Carole Lombard was a liberal Democrat who encouraged him to support Roosevelt's administration. There is no hint in his biography, that Gable was personally interested in any kind of serious political activity. I'm not sure the American public considered acting in Hollywood as a profession conferring political wisdom or experience in 1940. Ronald Reagan was the first actor to run for President, and that was only after he had forsaken his acting career to serve as Governor of California.

    But it definitely would have required considerable personal charisma, not to mention formidable political expertise, for any candidate to have prevailed over Roosevelt in 1940. And, as is the case today, the two major political parties offered the only realistic paths to the White House in 1940. The Republican Convention revealed that Dewey, the front runner with the most committed delegates, was considered too young, too inexperienced, and too isolationist, to be a viable candidate for the office of President. That is why Wilkie ended up as a compromise nominee. The Republicans were only too aware that isolationist power was waning; with the fall of France in 1940, and serious German threats to Britain, most Americans did not think isolationism was the proper answer to Axis aggression in Europe and Asia.
     
  3. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    The charismatic leader wouldn't necessarily be the presidential candidate. Someone like Stewart would be cheerleader for the candidate. (Ever see "Meet John Doe"?)

    All it might have taken is for one such "star power" person to go over wholeheartedly. Say a man with a son killed by some accidental bombing by the British or French.
     
  4. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    Then all you would have would be a political "cheerleader", not an "isolationist President".

    I don't think even a charismatic figure such as a Hollywood star would have altered the drift away from isolationism in 1940. The events in Europe and Asia were on too large a scale, and too dramatic, to be countered by "cheerleading", even if sincere and impassioned. Even the Republicans, whose conservative wing was the locus of isolationist power, realized isolationism was not a force sufficient to determine the election of the President in 1940. It may have been comforting for some politicians, and segments of the public, to cling to isolationist principles, but common sense in 1940, dictated that the Axis threat to the US was real, rapidly growing, and demanded action that the isolationists found repugnant. The majority of Americans realized that simply ignoring the Axis powers could very well prove fatal for the US; and they were not prepared to do this.
     
  5. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    The cheerleader would stump for the candidate, lending his image to the candidate, perhaps starring in a movie about the candidate's purported deeds in WWI, or, better, a lesser known war when the details would be less likely to be challenged.

    I'm only suggesting a possible scenario, but I am by no means thinking it is an impossible scenario. I battled this out at Purdue one time, and had a lot of fun. With a little more research I could pin down the pivotal characters and add enough fictional "composites" to make an interesting "alternate history book" that requires only one such event as I mentioned above to set up a different path for history.
     
  6. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    I'm not arguing that it's "impossible", in fact I've stated it's within the "realm of possibility". But I do find it "implausible", given the historical antecedents of the election of 1940. The trend of world events was away from the isolationists' views in 1940. It was just common sense, not the influence of politically leading men, to believe that sooner rather than later, the Axis powers would represent a direct threat to the United States.

    Even the isolationists would not tolerate such a threat, but would support arming to defend the country. Even supposing an isolationist President were elected in 1940, I find it inconceivable he (or she), would remain unconcerned about German successes in Europe or Japanese aggression in Asia They certainly would not allow a situation to develop where the Axis powers dominated Europe, Asia, Africa, and South America. Long before any such situation eventuated, the US would be taking steps to counter such Axis domination. It would never get to the point that Mexico was faced with a choice of siding with a moribund US or acceding to Axis demands to allow it's territory to be used as a base for the invasion of the US.
     
  7. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    Well, it's going to be after the 12th before I get all the speeches online, I'm leaving for New Mexico in a few days.

    Until then I posit that there was no consensus amongst the isolationist as to how isolationist they should be. And I see the possibility that a "Great 48 only" campaign would have been successful given the right "changes" in the history.
     
  8. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    I am just expressing my opinion based on what I've read about the period. I agree there was no consensus among the isolationists as to the best course for them to follow in 1940; it was a time of great turmoil in reaction to startling international events. But even the Republican Party and it's nominee, the only realistic alternative to re-electing Roosevelt, was not willing to put it's eggs in the isolationist basket.

    In my opinion, the annexation of Canada anytime during the period would be out of the question, not so much because of American attitudes, but because of Canadian conditions.

    I'll be interested in reviewing your documents and speeches when they are posted.
     
  9. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    I will have them at WWII Resources as soon as possible. I have 145 speeches up to July 1940 at this point, not all isolationist, of course. Of interest is one that is very isolationist, from the head of the N.R.A., of all people.

    And I agree that Canada never has had an inclination to be part of the US. It's too pleasurable to make fun of us, according to my Canuck friends.
     
  10. sdf

    sdf Member

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    Why Mexico? Canada would looked better as a plaform for unavsion:
    1. In this scenario it would be an Axis`s "trophee".
    2. Shorter way both from Europe and Japan.
     
  11. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    Have you ever looked at the west or east coast of Canada? On Japan's side there is exactly one port worth having, and nothing but mountains between the shoreline and every single method of moving troops anywhere else. BTW there was only a single east-west rail line in Canada, and no north south roads, let alone rails of any worth.

    The Canadian east coast is not much more hospitible, and much better defended. It might be a "shorter" trip, but it is a trip to no-where. Mexico at least has the doubious advantage of some decent shoreline and infrastructure for transport with less concentrated defenses. But that is neither here nor there, Japan had nearly NO sea-capable re-fueling capability, and no fuel for their non-existant tankers for their non-existant fleet of troop ships.

    The Germans weren't in any better shape for this, but they would also have to fight their way through the existing RN and USN's Atlantic Fleet. Neither of which they could even HOPE to match, let alone defeat.
     
  12. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    263 speeches on various topics, plus some "special" material, for 1939 and 1940 to be uploaded by Monday.
     
  13. ickysdad

    ickysdad Member

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    Clint,
    Actually you had the Canadian Pacific railroad which ran precariously close to the US border but also one had the Canadian Northern railroad which ran from Winnipeg to Vancouver by a much more northerly route. The Canadian Northern was completed in 1916 I think. I'll try and provide some links later.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Northern_Railroad

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Pacific

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_National_Railway

    I agree with most of your points though.
     
  14. luketdrifter

    luketdrifter Ace

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    I think this has gotten off the topic of the original thread. I think, that in the 50's, faced with a general public that not only would vehemently oppose invasion, but had the guns to defend it, the German and Japanese armies would find their hands more than full. If you assume the US remained neutral and that the papers published the headlines of the war, you must assume the normal US family would have some knowledge of what has going on. And have at least one or more gun. If it was to happen today, personally I would be able to outfit 67 people with weapons to fight an invading force. 67. An invasion of mainland America would be suicide...you think the Germans and Japanese didn't read how we won the west??
     
  15. brndirt1

    brndirt1 Saddle Tramp

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    Too true Luke. Yamamoto, who had spent time in the US and traveled by train from the east to the west when he left for his homeland, told his fellows back in Japan that (paraphrasing); "Invading America is a fool's errand, we would find a shotgun, rifle or pistol behind every blade of grass!"

    He knew that our "gun culture" was far different from any other nation in the world.
     
  16. ickysdad

    ickysdad Member

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    Could we be possibly looking at a Boer War on steroids if either Japan or Germany had ever tried to invade mainland USA?
     
  17. sdf

    sdf Member

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    Well, I take off my proposition about Canada as platform for invasion.
    But anyway, has author any plot in order to make Canada at least “neutral” as Vichy France after defeat of GB? Or maybe he has other variants in order to counterbalance somehow German- Japan and American naval forces.
     
  18. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    I see Germany terminating the US goverment easily in this scenario, but I dont see it conquering the country, the people would fight until no US citizen was left or Germany retreated, rights in USA are WAY overrated, they re facists that means they will take those rights away, dont get between an USA citizen and its rights, NEVER!

    A succesful attack to the US goverment (goverment, as they wont conquer the nation), would be from what I see influencing the Latin American countries to form an union into 1 power or contry, to make South America a superpower which can be done if all join into 1 force, when this union is formed Germany will be seen as the benefactor of Latin American countries who have suffere A LOT thanks to the ****ing Monroe Doctrine, Im sure if Germany uses the rage the people have towards the Monroe Doctrine they can convince the whole of Latin America forces to join with Germany and make a massive attack on USA, 2 and half continents against a country? A germany that controls ALL the Europe, Japan ALL Asia and all of Latin America countries enraged by the Monroe Country, poor US goverment....... still they will face a REALLY though fight against US citizens, unless they respect their rights in exchange of of havint Hitler's poster in every corner that says "Leader" everywhere I mean they will lose the right to choose their goverment but I think if the basic rights are respected US people might not fight.
     
  19. luketdrifter

    luketdrifter Ace

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    The US people would never "not fight" an invasion. Ever. So Germany is going to outfit these Latin American's, train them, transport them, supply them, for an invasion of mainland United States? It wouldn't take a long time of massive losses to one of, if not the, largest guerrilla forces in history for these other countries to say, "you know what? We are better off staying out of this". No way could this be effectively pulled off in my mind. If someone can prove that it can, I'd be all ears.
     
  20. HaoAsakura

    HaoAsakura Member

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    Well really about the latin america thing I was speaking about a long process by which latin nations could join or something, still if you want to be more real or a more immediate action instead of the long process of consolidating several nations into 1 continental superpower, the Germans can only go along the Latin American nations by taking advantadge of the imperialistic view and danger they see in USA as the perfect momment to attack, specially Mexico its people are VERY pissed off today because USA took from them more than half of its original territory. Really USA is strong but I dont see USA defeating the entire world, this topic is almost a USA vs The World thread, I dont see USA soloing the entire world they are facing all Europe, all Asia and possible all Latin America at once, USA isnt soloing this.

    Nukes arent beign used unless you want the Apocalypse to begin, they are MAD certaintly and the only was US have a chance is if it goes nuclear.
     

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