Japan takes a different course

What if Japan had not attacked the US in December of 1941? Instead, Japan invades only French Indo-China, Malaysia, Burma and, the Dutch East Indies. The Philippines are not attacked nor is Wake or Pearl Harbor.
How would the US respond? Would Roosevelt declare war immediately? Would he wait to see how things developed? Could the Japanese in this scenario carry on into possibly Australia?
Given the original results, in such a scenario the Japanese would certainly have carried all of their objectives. India and Australia would certainly be threatened. The Japanese could have moved easily into the Solomons and even the French Polynesian islands west of there.
If the US delayed entry due to political squabbling and opposition to open war, the Japanese would have had more time to consolidate their gains against feeble naval opposition.
Opinions?

 

Sounds like a really good plan. The US and UK were in no position to do anything. They did nothing to defend China to speak of. If the Japanese could have gotton the Indians to rise up against the British in India then that would have helped their cause. Also if the Japanese could make a deal with the Russians that would help too. After the Japanese built a larger navy they could isolate the Philippines and let the military forces there die on the vine.


You missed your calling TAG. You should have been on the Japanese War Cabinent in WWII.

 

I think that the Japanese could open hostilities with anyone that was fighting Germany because of the Axis alliance. This means that they could attack any of the Dutch, French or British colonial holdings in the Pacific Ocean or Indian Ocean theaters. This would give them an opportunity to capture resources and be ambiguous enough to muddy the response from the US. Who cares about a trade embargo when you can go into regions with the items you want and need and seize them?

I think that would have been a great idea. I have said it before, don't attack Pearl Harbor and the isolationists in the US might have kept us out of WWII.

 

Strategically speaking, I do not think the Japanese could have ignored the threathen of the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl nor the American stronghold at the Philippines (which, by the way, would have been in the rear of any Japanese move towards the Marianas, Carolinas, Gilbert or Marshall isles; towards the Dutch East Indies, New Guinea, the Salomons and Fiji (all necessary for a potential invasion or isolation of Australia).

 

The US had a strong fleet presence in the Pacific. To ignore a powerful capability like that would have been foolish. The US believes in the high moral ground it treads upon, though. That means that if the Japanese had anything to fear from us militarily they would have plenty of warning, right? Where is our justification for attacking their position if they have not attacked us? They were already fighting an agressive war against the Chinese, we didn't declare war. The Germans were fighting an agressive war against the British Empire and Western Europe, we didn't declare war.

I think that the Japanese and the Germans could have kept us out of the conflict for another year or more if they would have left us alone. We were spoiling to get into the fight, FDR was hungry for a chance to take a place in world politics, and probably a lot of other motives I don't know or understand. That was not enough until the infamous attack in Hawaii.

 

The reason the US sent an ultimatum in autumn 1941 which lead to the Japanese decision to attack Pearl Harbor was the Japanese actions in China. If the Japanese had given up on their China politics the US would have propably loosened their politics but cannot be sure. It seems FDR wanted to show Japan its place because his politics ( in my opinion ) did not leave Japan much breathing place except to stop their actions in China or...

Anyway, in my opinion, starting hostile actions anywhere even if not against the US troops would have started a war between the US and Japan quite soon because FDR had decided to stop Japan from growing into a bigger war machine.

 

FDR had done a lot for the country by 1940. I don't have the perspective to understand if he had the charisma or clout needed to allow him to declare war on Japan or Germany without the catalyst of something like the Lusitania or Pearl Harbor. The isolationist movement in the USA was very strong. If the invasion of China and the on-going hostilities between Britain and Germany were not enough, what would have been? If Japan could shrug off the trade sanctions, could Roosevelt really have convinced congress to open hostilities?

The conspiracy theories around Pearl Harbor were so easy to swallow because so many people knew that FDR wanted to join the war, but didn't have the justification. They thought he understood that it would take something like the historic event at Pearl Harbor to give him the backing for war. My father was a WWII sailor and I heard him talk about it with more than a little belief in the tone of his voice. FDR placed a big fat prize in front of the Japanese, a prize he believed that they could not resist, and so he got his war.

These are not my personal beliefs, just a synopsis of many opinions I have heard from survivors of that time.

 

During the 1930´s a thing like calling troops in arms ( in Europe at least ) was called "declaration of war" and meant actually that the opponent had slapped you in the face with his glove and waited for a response. So sending the Fleet ships to Pearl Harbor could be seen as an offensive action by the Japanese, with today´s view we could see it as a movement of forces to calm down the situation. But back in time I think it must have stirred the Japanese emotions quite a bit. And later on the requirements for pulling back in China...

I think the soup´s almost ready...

 

Let me see if I am following you Kai.

FDR builds up the strength of the fleet in Pearl Harbor.

Is this to let the Japanese know that he is serious about them stopping their aggression in China?

With 1940's technology and espionage capabilities would this be an obvious move to the Japanese?

How long would it be reasonably expected for a navy like Japan's to plan an attack on a foreign target so distant from them? We know the Japanese spent months getting ready. Had the build-up of the US Fleet in Pearl Harbor been going on that long?

 

I´m not a specialist of the Pacific war but I think here´s some time tables:

--------

Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto assumed command of the Japan's Combined Fleet in August of 1939.

1941

January

Admiral Yamamoto begins communicating with other Japanese officers, asking them if an attack on Pearl Harbor would be possible. The final outcome of these discussions was the attack was possible but would be difficult.

It would require the deployment of all six fleet aircraft carriers to be successful. Approximately 400 high-level, dive and torpedo bombers and fighters would be needed.


July

Thought out the summer Yamamoto trained his forces. His staff and the Naval General Staff finalized the planning of the attack: what route to travel on, how much fuel would be required for the trip, what U.S. ships would be in the harbor and where they would be moored

The Japanese made the final decision for war on 6 September 1941, after which detailed planning for the Pearl Harbor attack began.

Planning was completed by the end of October. All senior commanders were briefed on 2 November and given details of the exercises to be carried out in the coming fortnight. On 7 November, Yamamoto named 8 December (Japan time) as the day of the attack.

November

Tokyo sends Saburo Kurusu, an experienced diplomat to washington as a special envoy to assist Ambassador Admiral Kichisaburo Nomura, who continued to seek a diplomatic solution.

Japan wanted the U.S. to agree to its southern expansion diplomatically but if they were unsuccessful , they would go to war.

On the 16th the first units,submarines, involved in the attack departed Japan.

On the 26th the main body, aircraft carriers and escorts, began the transit to Hawaii.

http://history.acusd.edu/gen/WW2Timeline/RD-PEARL.html

http://www.iwm.org.uk/upload/package/25/pearl_harbour/pearl_harbor.htm

-------------

Oct. 8 1940 - FDR secret office sound-on-film recordings: "This country is ready to pull the trigger if the Japs do anything. I mean we won't stand any nonsense - public opinion won't in this country - from the Japs if they do some fool thing... That's the only real danger of our getting in - is that their foot will slip."

http://history.acusd.edu/gen/WW2Timeline/Prelude21.html

 

1941

July 26 - July Threshold - FDR takes decisive action:
new Philippine command created under MacArthur

AVG in China under Chennault with 100 pilots

Japanese assets in U.S. frozen

crude oil embargo July 24; aviation gasoline added Aug. 1

proposal for neutral Indochina

---------

Sept. 4 - Japanese Cabinet's "Minimum Demands" and "Maximum Concessions"

demanded Burma road closed, no interference with Japan's occupation of China or Indochina, and re-open trade with Japan

only concession was promise of eventual withdrawal from China


--------

Oct. 2 - FDR rejects Konoye offer of summit meeting unless China troops withdrawn first

Oct. 8 - Hull demands Japan withdraw troops from China in advance of any diplomatic agreement

Nov. 26 - "most fateful document" was Hull's counterproposal to "B"

-must withdraw first from Indochina and China

http://history.acusd.edu/gen/WW2Timeline/Prelude23.html

 

I´m not saying that FDR was wrong doing this and won´t comment his politics on Japan otherwise but after doing all this you cannot say " I didn´t guess they´d attack us"....or can you? That´s just my opinion.

 

Also:

The shallow water torpedo

http://www.cinemenium.com/pearlharbor/event/phrarticle02diagrams.php

The reason for the Japanese success at Pearl Harbor was the shallow water torpedo. Unlike Taranto, Pearl Harbor is a narrow confined harbor. Torpedo planes required a long "fetch" of water to descend over. They slowly "bled-off" speed, while lining up the target. If they weren't level when the drop was made, the device would auger down too high, and it would fall apart upon "smacking" the water.

Pearl Harbor's geography forced the Japanese to train carefully. First, they had to fly down from the mountains into the harbor, then drop again when they reached the small harbor, ruling out the usual glide-path of a torpedo plane. Mr. Yosioka Adakats invented a torpedo that would work in shallow water (see illustration), but it couldn't be dropped from higher than 25 feet. The low and slow approach is what accounted for many describing these planes as "sitting ducks." Eye-witnesses say if they had a rock they could have hit them. Others can still tell you what the pilot looked like as they flew by at 25 feet smiling and waving.

The torpedo planes slowly filed into the harbor. Since "ten-ten" dock (so called because it's exactly 1010 feet long) offered a good "marker," they followed it, crossed the harbor and made straight for "Battleship row." Here they made numerous drops of their "fish" into the best targets there -- the Oklahoma and West Virginia. Other ships were torpedoed that day, but the Oklahoma and West Virginia took the brunt of the attack (nine torpedoes each). Their sides were literally blasted off. The Oklahoma quickly capsized, while the WV took on a dangerous 28 degrees list, before counter flooding took hold. What made it worse was, as the ships rolled, new torpedo hits occurred above the armor beltline. Damage was catastrophic and wide-spread.

The Tennessee and Maryland were protected by the Oklahoma and West Virginia since their birth was starboard side. They came through relatively unscathed except for a few bomb hits and a scorched hull from the burning oil that was everywhere. The Arizona probably would have rode out the attack since the repair ship vestal was along side, blocking a torpedo shot (many claim one went under it to strike the Arizona). A lucky bomb hot struck the Arizona between turret 1 and turret 2 on the starboard side igniting the forward magazine. One and a half million pounds of gun powder erupted raining hell itself onto the rear quarter decks of the West Virginia and Tennessee. This explosion ranked as the largest man-made bang until a fertilizer ship blew up near Galveston and then the A-Bomb was dropped shortly after.

 

If memory serves, at the eleventh hour, sometime around Dec 5, 1941, the United States signed a mutual defense pact with the Dutch East Indies, Australia, New Zealand and Great Britain.

If any of those countries had been attacked by Japan, we would have delcared war upon Japan, as a result.

 

I may be wrong as my memory isn't as good as it once was, but didn't the British Admiral Tom Phillips from Singapore, who later went on to "Prince of Wales" fame, meet with American General Douglas MacArthur and American Asiatic Fleet Commander Admiral Hart, less than 24 hours before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor to discuss strategy matters, once the Japanese had attacked?

I got that information from John Toland's book "But Not in Shame", awhile back.

 

I think FDR took the US Pacific Fleet out of San Diego and transferred it to Hawaii for two purposes:

1) For simple strategical reasons: after the Japanese open invasion of Indochine and the growing crisis, it was a very good move to have the fleet closer to the central and western Pacific, ready to counter-attack in the case of any Japanese move.

2) As a warning: to let the Japanese see that the USA is paying attention to the Pacific too, and is not distracted by Europe. Also, if they make a move, the Yanks are ready to mobilise as well.

Though I severely doubt, since there are not proves of it, that a build-up was taking place for a future offensive. On the contrary, the Pacific Fleet was been cannibalised to equipp the Atlantic Fleet.

What we know is that the agressive and militaristic régime at Tokio was, simply and plainly, not going to even consider a diplomatic solution. Then, Yamamoto, learning from the Brits at Taranto, saw an opportunity when the Pacific Fleet moved from San Diego to Pearl Harbour. Had that move not taken place, I guess he would have chosen an open, full-scale, Jutland-like, fleet versus fleet, battleship battle.

 

We could never have attacked. Without Pearl Harbor, American support for the war would not have been galvanized, and Congress would not have voted for war. Japan would have had free run of the Pacific as long as they didn't immediately and directly threaten US trade.

My guess, the USA might never have made it into the war, fundementally altering the outcome in Europe as well as pre-cluding a a Pacific Front. Let's make a non-political comparison to today's world: Without 9/11, would there have been popular impetus for direct intervention in the Middle East? No. Would most Americans even be able to find Afghanistan or Iraq on a map? Probably not. The American people in 1940 would have been very unwilling to let themselves be drawn into a huge war they could potentially lose just because Japan and Germany kicked a few butts halfway across the world.

You have to keep in mind gents, that this was in the day when the President couldn't just send the military wherever he wanted on a whim. Although the accursed War Powers Act is for a different thread...

 

Even if the Pearl Harbor attack is not okayed, Japan still intended to take the Philippines in order to protect their left flank on the drive to the East Indies. Now granted Japan attacking the Philippines probably wouldn't have generated as much outrage as the attack on Pearl Harbor, but Roosevelt still has a persuasive arguement in Congress for a declaration of war. After all the Philippines was still a colony of the United States and US military forces would have had to been defeated there.

 

Yes, and also the US sanctions on oil helped them to decide on starting the war because the Japanese Fleet would have been useless in 6 months to 1 year due to losing their oil storage during that time.They "had" to act while they still had manoeuvrability. ( If I recall correctly )

 

Also the question might be would FDR move the fleet to Pearl Harbor if he understood the Japanese could strike the fleet with torpedoes? Of course moving the fleet to Pearl was like making a Chess move but I think he believed the Fleet to be safe from torpedo attacks in those waters.Right?