Merkel Apparently Fears Devastating Defeat of the Ukrainian Army

very good

 

Skipper, the problem is any ceasefire would merely mean the Russians keep the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. That isn't an accomplishment, it's a sell out. It's a repeat of the Munich agreement where the "Sudetenland" was given to Hitler for a promise of no more aggression. So, it may very well be that Hollande and Merkel browbeat Ukraine into giving up much of their nation, but the only winners will be Russia and western Europe who won't have to worry about an interruption of their oil supply.

 

The cease fire is second degree humor and actually related to the skirmishes on this thread, not in real life.

 

Touche'!

 

Absolutely, Skipper. All good, hoping for a cease fire without the sell out. Crimea stays with Russia, that is pretty certain isn't it?

 

"Interesting" to see if the Crimea area can be supported by Russia alone,perhaps. The US and EU have forbidden any financial support to this area for the time being. Also the winter time for the separatists might not be so funny if the Soviet supply convoys mainly bring weapons and ammo.We´ll see. So far the negotiations in Moscow are a big laugh to me. If Putin cannot solve the discussion in 15 minutes or one day, he´s playing a game with Merkel and Hollande. Just like Hitler did, playing angry all the time in 1938 in Munich. He´s not even trying to make a deal, he´s trying to humiliate the opponent and get a propaganda victory in the eyes of Russian people.

 

Could be that Crimea and Eastern Ukraine end up going to Russia in exchange for peace but any such peace under such conditions would only be temporary. If Ukraine has to give up any territory then they will end up joining the EU, They wont join CIS after the largest member stole their land.

Would also see major revamp of the Ukrainian military, Just as Russia changed tactics after the 2008 Georgian war (Even though Russia won they suffered bigger set backs then any one predicted against a smaller opponent). Next time Russia comes knocking they will likely come up against a better equipped better trained Ukraine.

 

Great comments, Kai. Very interesting parallel to Munich, your analyses are always most enlightening.

 

Same or better - good to know.

 

Actually it would help if the west gave them more support. The Ukrainians seem to be quite reasonable to me. They want Russia to live up to her treaty obligations. From all I've read they also would like a peaceful solution but one that doesn't involve dismembership of their nation. That sounds to me like the best resolution for the Ukrainian people.

Sources Please.

Then you would be wrong.

That seems to be in direct contradiction to just about everything I've read from a reputable source.

That depends very much on what the Bear is doing or intending to do and where he is. In some cases cageing him is the best answer.

 

Obviously not.

And what's wrong with that? They didn't break any treaties or act contrary to international law in doing so. As opposed to Russia which most certainly did.

That's not quite right though is it. But more important a lot of US citizens have been unhappy with the result of all of the presidential elections here in the US for as far back as I've been voting at least. I haven't seen any significant number taking up arms about it. There's also the fact that the Russians encouraged the uprising and there is an open question as to just what percentage of those in the eastern Ukraine support the uprising.

Amazing how you can claim to be neutral and then twist things so badly to support your view point. How many of them were "Russian by birth"? Not counting the Russian soldiers sent in by Putin. You also seem to be neglecting just how much Russia has been instigating and controling this "rebellion". There's also little to support that they would have been slaughtered much less to "foreign interest".

I have yet to see one of your posts on this topic that proves the point you were trying to prove. You have done an excelent job of proving your whole hearted support of Putin and Russia.

Backed by how many Russian soldiers and tanks?

Not doing so won't remove that danger just push it further back and indeed if one looks at previous events of this nature in the long run it will increase the chance of such a conflict.

Almost no one "wants" to die for any regime. It's clear however that many Ukraininas are willing to die to prevent Russia from ruling them. That hardly classiifes them as fanatics and almost certainly classifies them as something other than "misslead".

 

No. Russia instigated the problem and forced a situation that might have been resolved peacefully into one that simply couldn't be resovled that way. They also broke an international treaty in the process and stole territory from a sovereign nation contrary to the law of nations. It's quite clear who the agressors were here ... Russia.

More than sufficient information has been provided to establish that our position is well supported. You have yet to supply anything to support that yours is.

I see you want to hold us to standards considerably more strict than you want to be held to.

Yes Nazi Germany had a right to insure their territorial integraty right up to the point where they invaded their neighbors. The governement in Kiev was indeed the "rightful" government of the Ukraine.

I guess I just have one more question in regards to this. What flavor was the Kool Aid? I hope you enjoyed it.

 

News flash. He already has. NATO has not started any agression by the way.

News flash. They have had numerous opertunities to do so already and haven't.

News flash. In general videos especially utube videos prove very little. Indeed they make wiki look like an outstanding news source.

Interesting claim. Can you support it, i.e. produce a reliable source that indicates that. I'll believe that most didn't want the war by the way no sane person wants a war, occasionally however they are necessary.

Just what crimes are you talking about? And what do you think the envolvement of the "energy companies" is?

You may have provide a "wealth of stuff" but little that really supports your position. I admit that I haven't looked at the vidoes but they are in most cases the weakest possible source for data. Most of your other support has been anecdotal so also of little merit.

 

The Baltics would be more afraid, if they were not in the NATO.

(That's some 430.000.)

 

Propaganda war at its best. The Finnish president said in his talk in Munchen that Russia should not be isolated. Interfax made headlines that the Finnish president demands that Russia should be isolated from all sides. Looking to make friends in Finland as usual???

 

Only short I am still working:

Well this was was already doubted to be maybe Kiew propaganda (like the rebels apparently plundering remains of the airplane accident, this was exposed as lie from Kiew), reason: Rebels shot down an Antonow transport some days before. And I guess they also celebrated the shootdown of the MILITARY enemy plane. It maybe KIEW with their propaganda outlets in the west, just used this incident to blame the accident/shootdown (not clear yet) on the freedom fighter....
--> I have somewhere a video with some examples of the Kiew lies, will post later. However it seemed before on your post, that you know some more on MH17 accident? As you seemed to know the freedom fighters or Russia shot it down (even if their is no proof of a shootdown at all, much less WHO shot it down - I posted a vid above from a press conference with some US blonde state bitc* lying in the issue, too)

Otherwise not much news, except:

- Oblabla and Merkel reach no agreement on issue (which is good imo, because obvisouly the US is pushing the war/send weapons option which almost all European opose)
- Wednesday this week Hollande,Merkel,Putin & Co. will discuss in Minsk further steps.
- German press now reports openly critic to Poro and that he is on his last leg: (of course he is losing, otherwise he wouldn´t talk but continue the war)
Headline says:
"Poro under pressure, he promised peace, but the war got worse and worse and Kiew is losing, also the economic situation in UKR is terrible, protests in Kiew vs. so called "government"
https://de.nachrichten.yahoo.com/analyse-poroschenko-ger%C3%A4t-im-ukraine-krieg-unter-druck-173758190.html
- Kiev is reluctant to hand over copies of what it claims to be documents, proving Russian military presence in Ukraine:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/02/08/moscow-demands-copies-russian-soldiers-shown-munich.html

@ LWD: I won´t answer you on the issue, look up sources and get some info then may be we can talk again And btw: The one video which you said is irrelevant I posted was from German "state TV", you are totally missinformed sorry. Or you bend everything to your liking.... Also: Your position was, that the UKR people would support the war and the Kiew Nazis, I POSTET A VIDEO FROM THE REGION FROM THE PEOPLE THERE and you still know more than people that are actually there and don´t want to support Kiew´s regime. That is ignorance and no ground for further talk between us regarding this issue. Cause I can come up with more stuff which disproves you and you just will render it irrelevant still believing your viewpoint. Therefore: We agree to disagree,ok? Ah and I decided to give up neutrality and go on the side of the freedom fighters, too much evidence.

 

If the separatists keep on attacking and reach a contact from East Ukraine to Crimea we know who the real liar is, don´t we? Defence is not invading. The only side so far that has taken land are the separatists.

 

The first news reports of the airliner being shot down included the claims by the seperatist that they had shot down a Ukrainian transport at the corresponding time. The news reports that came out a few hours later reported the web page had been taken down.

If you look at the evidence and the situation logically it's pretty clear that the airliner was shot down either by seperatists or Russians operating with them. Very likely it was becasue they indeed thought the plane was a Ukrainian transport. If the issue had stopped they could have made a good case for it being a simple case of the seperatist mis iding the plane apolgized and let it blow over. However the lack of cooperation with the investigation, tampering with the crash site, and other such actions afterwards indicate a cover up. The only think I can think of is that either the SAM was supplied to the seperatist or it was manned by Russians. The latter is IMO more likely as I'm not sure that the Russians would have wanted such assests under control of seperatist whose competence and reliability were subject to question.

It will be interesting to see them if you can indeed produce them.

Looks like you are trying to be deliberately insulting. More evidence against your so called "neutrality".

If that's what it says then it's clear they are a propaganda organ with little concern for the truth, or is the "so called 'governement'" your addition. If so then insted of "they" read "you".

 

Yes cause they have better morale, fight better and are on the right side (of the people in the region) - Kiews forces however are in a state of chaos, cause morale suffers, they don´t believe Kiew´s lies anymore. There still some fanatics in the area under regional oligarchs as well probably US "undercover" forces....

The freedom fighters could march on Kiew, but now suddenly Poro wants to talk (cause he´s losing).

Kai-Petri, once again: What´s your evidence re. the MH17 issue ?

News:
UK not to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine - foreign secretary
UK is not the first country to react to media publications saying the Unites States is considered supplying arms to Ukrainian forces. Official representatives of France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Denmark and China earlier also said their countries would no supply lethal weapons to Ukraine.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2015/02/09/uk-not-supply-lethal-weapons-ukraine-foreign-secretary.html

Seems the US is more and more isolated in their business making.

 

Wow, you must be taking this right from the Russian propaganda machine. From what I've read from trustworthy sources that's complete BS. The seperatist in reality had little claim to be fighting for "the people fo the region" but some small minority there of. Shortly after the fighting started in the Ukraine opposition forces rose to oppose the seperatist and were defeating them until the Russians sent in significant military forces (who were obviously better trained and equipped than the local forces or the Ukrainian army).

Let's take a look at how this developed. The following was posted in Feb of 2014:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20140202.aspx

The following (from March ) goes on to say:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20140323.aspx

and this quote quite clearly shows who the aggressor was:

and then there is:

Guess we know what Russian promises are worth. Looking back in history I can think of at least one other leader who acted this way.
As for the implication that most in the Eastern Ukrain support the seperatist here's some numbers from a post last June:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20140625.aspx

It does make the following point latter.

Note that by May things are turning around for the Ukrainians:
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20140518.aspx