Mussolini strikes oil!

As we know Italy was a resource poor country who if led by sane mind people would have never have enterd any major conflict.

In 1935 Italy entered war for no rational reason with that hell-hole Ethiopia other than that was the only piece of non-colonised land in Africa. In 1936 Italy decided to interfere in the Spanish Civil War, and were lucky to have bet on the winning horse. In 1940 they attacked Egypt, forcing the Germans to send a force to save their asses. In 1941 they went on to invade Albania and Greece, forcing Hitler to save their sorry asses again and threatening to throw off his schedule for Barbarossa. All this for a country with the most severe deficits, and a totally outmoded industry. A good case of someone being too big for one's boots. Also we have to remember Mussolini's infatuation with regional politics, at a time being guarantor of Austrian independence putting him into a collision course with Germany, later merrily changing his mind and backing off before the Anschlüss, it's all in Ciano's memoirs. Also it's important to say Italy and Britain were going along quite well until Mussolini decided to turn to his new friend Hitler.

Now it is rather ironical that poor Italy was without dreaming it sitting on top of Africa's largest oil reserves: Lybia!

The actual timeline was: Lybia was occupied by Italy since 1911. Mussolini came to power in 1922. Italy signed the Pact of Steel with Germany in 1939. Lybia was temporarily administered by the British and French since 1942 until becoming independent in 1951. The new Lybian Kingdom discovered about it's oil soon, and effective exploration begun in 1962.

So, suppose the oil was found under the Mussolini rule before all the troubles begun, say in 1932 or 1934. How would this go to shape Italy's policies?

Would a new sense of wealth and well-being moderate it's policies as no need of further expansion was felt, or rather would this have strenghtened it aggressive feelings? Would Italy have taken a tougher stance against "gli Tedeschi" pre-Spanish Civil War? Would a Regia Marina fleet now with no oil supply problems be more assertive in the Mare Nostrum? Remember Italy was getting along well with Britain, so why go to Egypt, why not instead cooperate with their old British friends?

 

Assuming that the oil was found in 35 and Italy somehow managed to pump it up and refine it, it might have just fueld Italies desire to expand. No pun intended. That also being the case Italy would have proved to be a much more profitable ally to Germany and Hitler was good at blowing smoke for Mussalini.

 

I would agree. Mussolini would be sticking his prideful chest out further and would think that he had the upper hand over Hitler. It would also be forcing Mussolini and Hitler to upgrade the attention in the Mediterranean since Hitler was obsessed with the Ploesti oilfields, he would be just as paranoid about the 'Italian oilfields.'

But it would not change the structure or way of thinking of the Italian Facists government. They may be richer but non the less smarter nor more advanced military.

 

Except that the Italian Navy would at last have enough oil in order for it to begin manuevering and training like a modern day fleet, rather than a polyglot collection of two and three ship sorties.

 

Does not change the fact that they still did not have radar and would not be able to face the Royal Navy on even terms. This is what kept the Italian navy at bay, not the lack of fuel.

 

It would be better for Germany & Italy to remain nuetral and sell the oil. Germany recives fuel, and the Italians make a fat profit & can throw in with the Allies when the proper moment comes.

Of course Mussolini could have taken that course without oil, selling the Germans Italian chemicals and industrial parts for German arms. But Mussolini was not that clever.