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NATO and Erdogan

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous' started by Kai-Petri, Jul 19, 2022.

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  1. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    He is meeting the leader of Iran and Putin. A member of NATO? Ever asked the other NATO countries if it is Ok? Should he join Putin? Kph
     
  2. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Why shouldn't Erdogan talk with Putin? His country borders the Black Sea and controls the Bosphorus Strait (controlling ingress and egress), it also shares a border with Iran and shares a border with Syria where Russia is engaged.
    He is also trying to broker a grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, whereby shipments can resume. Attempting to avert starvation from food shortages is a commendable goal.
    Turkey is no friend of Iran's, they are current and historical rivals, have different political systems, ideologies and Turkey is fighting Iran's ally, Syria. Turkey needs and buys Iranian oil and natural gas; they also cooperate in attempting to control the Kurds. The PKK were some straight up nasty characters when they were prominent in terrorist acts against Turkish institutions and civilians. The YPG has strong ties to the PKK, but their involvement in terrorist activities is less clear.
    Turkey also has the second largest military force in NATO, we need them. Russia and Turkey maintain relations where their national priorities coincide, but these relations would not be characterized as cordial. Russia and Turkey have clashed in Syria. Russia and Turkey also have a long history of conflict, having fought one another in 11 wars going back to 1568. Plus, Turkey knows Russia for what they are, and realize that they could be a threat.
    Russia doesn't need to piss off Turkey and Turkey doesn't need to draw any more ire from Russia than being a NATO member already entails.
     
  3. Ricky

    Ricky Well-Known Member

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    I get why Putin wants to meet Erdogan. Please stop selling drones. Or maybe sell them to me instead.

    And I understand Turkey not wanting to poke the bear too hard.

    Plus, if this was a German or French leader, we wouldn't be quite so worried

    I just have to hope that there is nothing to worry about...
     
  4. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    Sure. Putin wants to buy all drones from Turkey And Iran. Iran wants cheap gas as Europe is cutting buying Russian Energi sources. Putin does not care about the enviromental like he said Europe needs his gas and other options are ridiculous. Laugh later. Erdogan do not know who he is on. So he is on both. Idiot. NATO or No NATO. If you win the next elections. A natural born dictator. Fits nicely in photos with Putin and leader of Iran. Gone with the wind like Gaddafi. Iran has already part of Syria close to Israel but Israel has nukes. Try and southern Syria with Iran troops will evaporate.
    Army of Turkish and Kurds fought Isis to kingdom come. Why Erdogan wants Kurds dead. Or is it like all dictator, any threat must be destroyed. Stalin, Putin..sorry Peter the Great. Idiot. In Russia reservists get 30 day military teachment and are sent to war. More idiots die.
     
  5. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    [​IMG]

    Turkish occupation zone below. Have Iran troops gone home?

    [​IMG]
     
  6. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Turkey is not planning on selling Russia, Bayraktur drones, though Putin did attempt to buy them.
    Bayraktar Manufacturer Refused To Supply Drones To Russia | Ukrainian news (ukranews.com)
    19 July,2022
    "The Turkish company Baykar Makina, which develops and manufactures unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), has no intention of selling Bayraktar TB2 strike drones to Russia.
    The CEO of Baykar Makina Haluk Bayraktar made the corresponding statement in an interview with the American publication CNN.

    To the question of whether the company is considering the possibility of selling Bayraktar TB2 attack UAVs to Russia, Bayraktar answered in the negative.

    "We have not supplied (UAVs to Russia - ed.) and will never do so," said the head of Baykar Makina."


    Syria, Iran and Russia are allies, and are such bad actors that the rest of the world avoids dealing with them. Erdogan has no choice because of his shared border, the areas many Kurds live in, and the history of terrorism by some Kurdish groups. The Kurdish PKK are some vicious, nasty, terroristic pieces of sheet. Back in the 80's I did a deployment with the Marines to Turkey. We trained Turkish soldiers in counter-terrorist operations and patrolled with them chasing down and killing these vermin. Some of the stuff they did to the locals wasn't equaled until ISIS and Al-Queda in Iraq came on the scene decades later.

    The food deal Erdogan is trying to negotiate is at the behest of the UN. He's trying to broker a deal where Russia allows Ukrainian grain shipments to the rest of the world. Since he/Turkey controls access to the Black Sea, they're the ones that have the leverage. Getting food out benefits Ukraine and the poor underdeveloped countries that were looking at serious food shortages.
     
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  7. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    Erdogan made a pact between Russia and Ukraine, and signed it. The next day Russia rocketed the wheat storage in Odessa. Putin showed Erdogan his signature is worth nothing. What a "friend".....
     
  8. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Erdogan knows who he's dealing with, and Russian game playing will only garner ill will between Turkey and Russia.

    Once again, Erdogan was working at the behest of the United Nations:

    "One of the few diplomatic breakthroughs in the Russo-Ukrainian War could be in bits and pieces only hours after the parties agreed to its terms.

    On Friday, the warring countries announced a United Nations-backed agreement brokered through negotiations in Istanbul that guaranteed safe passage of Ukrainian grain from Odesa and two more ports on the Black Sea.

    The agreement further protected vessels and facilities in the three Ukrainian ports, including Odesa, but it did not address the threat posed by extensive naval mining in the Black Sea. Ukrainian officials previously estimated it would take six months of minesweeping to clear the mines, and by this fall there could be 75 million tons of grain stuck in the country if it cannot be exported. We wrote about the mines’ impact on any potential grain agreement here.'"
    Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Strikes Port Just After Grain Export Deal Reached (thedrive.com)

    Putin has a habit of making other world leaders wait when he meets with them. Erdogan turned the tables by making Putin wait, which Putin didn't like but since he's managed to isolate himself, he really can't do anything about it. It also allowed Erdogan to show Putin he's not running the show.


    Then, initially Russia denied being behind the strikes on Odessa.

    Turkey's Defense Minister Hukusi Akar said Saturday that Russian authorities have denied involvement in Saturday's attack on the Ukrainian port of Odessa, one of those designated to resume crucial Ukrainian grain exports to needy countries, as agreed Friday in Istanbul.

    Ukrainian authorities have denounced on Saturday the impact of at least two missiles on the city's port, one of those included in the agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN to resume exports.

    "Russia has denied any attack on Odessa," the minister has made known in statements picked up by 'Hurriyet'.

    However, the minister acknowledged that the incident has a "worrying character" given that his country functions as a guarantor of a pact that makes Odessa and two other ports in the country safe zones for grain exports.

    For his part, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov assured that Ukraine will continue to comply with the terms of the Istanbul pact, for their part.

    Although the Russian attack "shows Moscow's real intentions", the minister assured that the shelling "will not stop the work of the Ukrainian authorities.

    "We do not trust Russia, but we trust our partners and allies, that is why the Initiative on safe transportation of grain and foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports was signed with the UN and Turkey, and not with Russia," he reminded.

    Russia denies to Turkey any attack on Odessa port after Istanbul agreement (msn.com)

    Then two days ago, Russia did a 180 and admitted to the strike but claimed it was a precision strike against military targets.
    "Russia has admitted its forces are responsible for launching the missiles that hit the Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, backtracking from its initial denial of involvement in the attack, which had raised doubts over a crucial grain export deal.

    Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for Russia's Foreign Ministry, wrote on her Telegram channel on Sunday that "Kalibr missiles destroyed military infrastructure in the port of Odessa, with a high-precision strike."

    Russia's Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov confirmed the strike on the port of Odessa, saying that the missiles only hit military targets."

    Russia Admits Ukraine Port Strike in U-Turn, Claims 'Military Targets' Hit (newsweek.com)

    As far as Turkey goes, they reiterated that they expect the agreement to be complied with. The UN wanted the deal, the US supports the agreement.
    July 22, 2022
    The United States welcomed separate agreements that Russia and Ukraine signed with Turkey and the United Nations on Friday to resume Kiev’s exports of grain through Black Sea ports.

    US commends Turkey, UN for Ukraine-Russia grain deal - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

    So why the continuing anger at Erdogan for negotiating with Russia?



     
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  9. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    Turkey is a NATO country. Not Putin's friend really. I am not angry. Just AMUSED. If Russia agreed the wheat shipping why did they rocket Odessa the next day? And especially the wheat silos.so that he could sell their wheat instead of Ukraina together.
    Me angry? Putin said he made a small operation against neo-nazis. Now Nordic child toys mumis are neo-nazis as well.
    And I said Erdogan was made a clown,not that I am angry. Erdogan can stay clown as long as he wants. Doing negotiation for the UN lasted a day. Then the paper was useless.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2022
  10. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    Do you trust liars like Putin?? One day and you break a signed Document.

    And so far Russia has warned of consequences to the US, EU, Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, NATO. Very much thank You.

    These are facts. Not anger.
     
  11. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    Can think of several reasons.
    1. Yes, the deal was signed. But, it will take awhile to implement. So, he can strike Odessa with little fear of practical retaliation, since operations are not yet underway.
    2. Send a message to the West, that this deal can go away at anytime, so they had better behave.
    3. Scares away shipping carriers. Russia has agreed to the "deal". However, if the Ukrainians cannot get shippers to transport the grain, that is not Russia's problem.
    4. Drives up costs...Shipping insurance is likely sky high for ships heading to the area. This will push it even higher - adding to the cost overhead.

    That's just off the top of my head.
     
  12. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    ISTANBUL — Russia and Ukraine agreed Friday to restart shipments of blockaded grain, in a step toward easing a global crisis that has exposed tens of millions of people, especially in Africa and the Middle East, to the threat of acute hunger, the U.N. secretary general announced.

    -----------------

    Well. what do we care? Let them die. No wheat, no food. You tell me. Or not. Make it your no 5 point of view. No need to explain to me.
     
  13. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Takao's answer gave several good, potential reasons. Another is Russia and Putin have managed to become a pariah in the west due to the invasion, whatever status and influence they have in the third world they want to protect. They have in fact been claiming that the looming food crisis is not their fault.

    "Russia is trying to convince African nations that global food shortages caused by its invasion of Ukraine are not Russia's fault.

    Ukraine is one of the world's largest food producers, particularly for the developing world. But Russia's invasion has harmed the production and export of food."

    Russia is trying to convince African nations that food shortages caused by the invasion of Ukraine are not its fault (yahoo.com)

    That's also why, initially they claimed that the attack wasn't them. I provided a link to that in my previous post.
    1.) I suspect that they were going to attempt to claim it was a false flag operation by the Ukrainians. The Russian spin would say, the Ukrainians made it look like Russia had attacked them by blowing up some facility, then they could garner sympathy and support from the west and the third world, while further isolating Russian and putting the blame for starvation in Africa, the middle east and potentially India on Putin/Russia. Fortunately, the story didn't gain traction and western intelligence verified who the true culprits were, so they changed it to "it was a strike against legitimate military targets". Remember, when Russia claims someone is up to something, it is usually they themselves that are guilty. That's part of their standard playbook.
    2.) They control the domestic distribution of information to a large degree. Already sanctions are eroding Putin's support at home (though slowly) and the huge number of casualties Russia has taken cannot be hidden indefinitely. Recently, the families of missing Russian soldiers even delivered a letter to Putin demanding answers. At present Putin still thinks he's winning. Delusional? Probably, but time is on his side. If he can show, by virtue of his UN agreement on food shipments, that Russia is being humanitarian, that they're not the bad guys, he can protect some public support.
    3.) Russia is heavily courting India. Once severe starvation starts plaguing Africa and the Middle East, India's relations with Russia will become an issue with the Indian public. Having signed the agreement gives Russia some cover for escaping the blame.
    4.) You wrote: "And so far Russia has warned of consequences to the US, EU, Finland, Sweden, the Baltics, NATO. Very much thank You."
    That has always been Russia's/Soviet Union's tactic. Threaten potential retaliation in order minimize western response, even if the threat has no teeth. Putin is already overextended in the Ukraine, they lack the conventional military power to widen the conflict by attacking the US, EU, Finland, Sweden, Nato, etc. much less finish Ukraine. Threats/saber rattling can help moderate the assistance provided to Ukraine and instill fear in the public's mind because they don't know or understand what Russia is actually capable of. Economic threats are viable and will likely be carried out. Russia has already found markets in China and India for much of their oil/gas production.
    5.) Time is on Putin's side. Everyone has been warned that letting the US pull too large a share of the burden will backfire. We have elections coming up in November, US taxpayers are suffering from high fuel prices and record high inflation. If Europe as a whole doesn't step up considerably, once political candidates start laying out the numbers public opinion will turn.
    -The US has sent 80% of the economic aid thus far and will have provided over half if the EU come off the coin it has pledged. The US economy was $20.95 trillion USD (nominal) in 2020. The economy of the EU plus Great Britain in 2020 was $20.66 trillion USD (nominal-17.9 trillion EU, 2.76 trillion). So comparable sizes.

    Then you have military aid, the other side of the coin. Again, the US is on the hook for a disproportionate amount. Military aid to Ukraine by country in billions of Euro's through July 1, 2022 (the latest date I have comparable data from, the US and UK have since committed to additional large military support packages).

    US-23.8

    EU-2.0

    UK-3.8

    Poland-1.80

    Germany-1.44

    Canada-.92

    Norway-.49

    Denmark-.27

    Czech Republic-.26

    Estonia-.25

    Greece-.25

    Latvia-.22

    Australia-.19

    Sweden-.18

    France-.16

    Slovakia-.16

    So, the US exceeds military aid spending of the next 15 largest countries by 11.41 billion euros or almost double! (23.8-12.39=11.41) Australia is a Pacific nation, not a NATO member, but still donates more than Sweden, France and the bulk of the EU. To be fair the numbers aren't comparable across the board, for instance Estonia is the largest donator per GDP, but they are directly threatened. Japan is not listed because their constitution prevents direct military aid, but they have donated a significant amount of humanitarian aid. Why are the Pacific nations doing more than many European states?

    Don't get me wrong. I support aiding the Ukraine, I think it's the right thing and the good fight. I'm not sure the average American taxpayer will agree the longer it drags on and if the disparity in funding "Europe's fight" is illuminated by self-seeking politicians. How do you explain Germany? The 4th largest economy in the world behind the US, China and Japan and they're giving less support than the UK and Poland!
     
  14. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    I only say three things: without Russian gas Germany/central Europe is done. Russia has already cut the flow to 20%. Also Germany after ww2 they were restricted with their army. What is there to give then. Big Stones and catapults?

    What will we be doing? No gas, no warming and no warm food in Europe. No electricity, no Industry. S**** happens. We have taxes to pay for Social wealthfare. No more. You can negotiate with Russia next. Hope you like it. We are a dead. We believed NATO unites us. No NATO. And thats no lie.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2022
  15. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    If China starts war and Europe is Russian you got a bigger problem. But who am I to discuss this..you got a solution?
     
  16. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    No liquid gas, no European Europe, my friend. Like you proved in your answer. Russia gets money, we get no gas and no industry. Like Trump said, leave NATO.
     
  17. Kai-Petri

    Kai-Petri Kenraali

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    [​IMG]
    Ukraine War: Russia gas supply cuts 'blackmail', says EU

    Ukraine War: Russia gas supply cuts 'blackmail', says EU

    Europe depends on Russia for more than a third of its gas needs and state energy giant Gazprom holds a monopoly on pipeline supplies in Russia.

    President Putin meanwhile warned that if Western forces intervene in Ukraine, they will face a "lightning-fast" military response.

    Ukraine war: Russia threatens to stop supplying gas if not paid in roubles

    Gas prices have soared after Russia further cut gas supplies to Germany and other central European countries after threatening to earlier this week.

    ------------------

    No Russian gas, end of Europe.

    -------------

    You see how dependent Europe is. The US can fight China alone if there is no gas. And who do you do trade with? Malta?
     
  18. Takao

    Takao Ace

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    May be....

    But, we cannot fight China alone without microchips...Which primarily come frome Southeast Asia.
    War with China and no micro chips...Not happening.

    Now we have this lovely CHIPs Bill. Where were you people 20 years ago, when all the tech companies were abandoning manufacture in the US because there is little money to be made in manufacturing.
     
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  19. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    I agree, we cut our own throats, or more properly our corporations and corrupt politicians have.

    Taiwan is a huge producer, as is South Korea and Japan. More reason we need to help protect Taiwan's independence, other than the fact that China is bullying everyone in the region.

    Top ten chip manufacturing facilities:
    Manufacturer-County-Location-Wafers per month (unless otherwise noted 300mm wafer containing 640 die)
    1.) Samsung-Korea-Pyeongtaek plant-450,000 per month
    2.) Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC)-China-Wuhan-200,000 per month
    3.) Samsung-Korea-Hwaseong plant-200,000 per month
    4.) Kioxia-Japan-Yokkaichi plant-173,334 per month
    5.) Changxin Memory Technologies-China-Hefei plant-125,000 per month
    6.) TSMC-Taiwan-Tainan Fab 18 plant-125,000 per month (phase 4-6 under construction should come online this year, additional 120,000 wafers per month)
    7.) SMIC-China-Shanghai S1 Mega Fab plant-114,000 per month (200 mm wafers-269 die per wafer)
    8.) Micron-Singapore-Fab 10 plant-100,000 per month
    9.) SK Hynix-China-Wuxi-100,000 per month
    10.) TSMC-Taiwan-Hsinchu-Fab 3 plant-100,000 per month
    TSMC-Taiwan-Taichung-Fab 15 plant-100,000 per month (expansion estimated 166,000 per month this year)
     
  20. USMCPrice

    USMCPrice Idiot at Large

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    Funny you should mention this, but I saw an interview today with a Russian expert that speculated on Putin's strategy. He thinks Putin will do whatever is necessary to hang on until winter, then Germany's lack of energy resources will lead it to push NATO to force Ukraine into a settlement or to stop providing assistance.

    However, I also saw where Germany has agreed to allow KMW to sell 100 PzH 2000, 155mm SP howitzers to Ukraine. The cost is 1.7 billion Euros, and it is for new production with the first 30 units not being delivered until 2024. Will there even be a Ukraine by then? So, who knows?
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2022

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