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No Pearl Harbor

Discussion in 'What If - Pacific and CBI' started by Roddoss72, Oct 28, 2007.

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  1. Roddoss72

    Roddoss72 Member

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    Here is a senario.

    Japan lets Germany know that it is to attack Pearl Harbour as retribution for the sanctions imposed upon it by the USA due to Japanese war in China, but Fuhrer Adolf Hitler needs Japan to open up a second front for "Barbarossa" and convinces the Japanese to cancel its attack on Hawaii. Japan shocks the world by announcing that it is withdrawing the bulk of it forces from China and that China and Japan sign the Sino-Nipponese accord which Japanese troops will remain in North China and Inner Mongolia in which China will recognise and that Shang-Kai Shek (sic) agrees to sign the Anti-Comintern Pact. The USA withdraws its sanctions on Japan.

    So no attack on any US soil, either Hawaii or Philipines or any US flagged ships are sunk, so how does the US get into the war by by-passing its neutrality act.

    So what it the consequences of the war in Europe with no US involement.

    And that the Soviet Union fighting on a two front war.
     
  2. Sloniksp

    Sloniksp Ставка

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    A Soviet Agent by the name of Victor Sorge found out that the only way that Japan would have ever even considered attacking the USSR again, was only if Moscow fell. This information was passed down to Stalin who was then relieved as this allowed him to free up the reserves from the East.

    Japan had nothing to gain from attacking the USSR. Japan needed oil rather then empty land which she would have encountered in the Siberia. Also if the Germans were suffering from the cold, how would the Japanese fair in Siberia, who were used to fighting in tropical climates? Not to mention the lack of tanks.

    As for the US, I believe that she would have eventualy gotten involved in the conflict coming to aid of Great Britain.
     
  3. Roddoss72

    Roddoss72 Member

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    Not good enough son, my thread says Japan opens a second front, so Japan and the Soviet Union are at war. So no freeing up the Eastern Reserves.

    Nothing to gain, well then, Vladivostok, Sakhalin Island, Petropavlovsk, The Trans Siberian Railway from Vladivostok to Lake Baykal, the destruction of the entire Soviet Pacific Fleet.

    Oh yes Japan needed oil, but consider this the fuel the Japanese used in spreading through South East Asia would be used in the Soviet Second Front.

    Tanks are a problem but at the point of June 1941 how many T-34/76 are serving in the East, most Soviet Tanks in the East were the old BT series, the Japanese 75mm with high explosives would knock them out.
     
  4. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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  5. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    He does take care of one serious problem for the Japanese that is they are no longer required to keep most of their army committed vs the Japanese. However the mood in the US was turning more and more against the axis. Opinion polls that have been posted in other threads on this topic indicate that the US would probably have been in the war soon anyway. Indeed Roosevelt may well have been able to get a declaration of war in late 41 but without the level of support he wanted. Fresh off the diplomatic success of a settlement in the Chinese/Japanese war he might the US entry into the war is almost assured in 42. If this happens while the Japanese are oriented toward the Soviets they are going to have severe problems. Also once they start having significant problems the Chinese may join back in. The Reds will hardly have stopped in any case.
     
  6. Sloniksp

    Sloniksp Ставка

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    Perhaps you are making the same mistake the German High Command made. Underestimating the amount of divisions which Soviet Union was be able to raise and in the amount of time that she was able to do so?

    Example: In the last 67 days of AGC advance, she sustained more then 200,000 casualties while receiving no replacements. At the same time the Soviets were able to mobilize over 50 new divisions.

    I would imagine that the Japanese would end up facing the same problem......
     
  7. Neon Knight

    Neon Knight Member

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    in my opinion the contest of the thread is out reality: the conquest of china was one of the strongest pilars of the japanese ideology and dates back a long time before. chinese were considered sub-humans. in the minds of japanese military elite there was only asia and the new order they wanted to establish there (china+southeast asia).

    Russia was not seen any more as a threat since the 1906 war and in 1941 the new enemy was america, this because US interferred with japanese plans regarding asia. the focus for japan has always been to asia.

    Provided that, imagine that japanese could change their historical concepts just because hitler asked them to open a second front in russia... well, let me say that to me it sounds a little absurd (no offence):)

    japan could have declared war to russia (i don't deny that), but NEVER at the price of sacrifying its goals in asia.

    but since this is a "what if" thread everything is allowed :D
     
  8. Roddoss72

    Roddoss72 Member

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    Sorry guys, once again, stay within the original thread, China and Japan have signed a peace treaty, America lifts sanctions so Japan can freely buy imports, like rubber, metals, oil from South-East Asia (America will sell to anyone), plus those divisions that served in South-East Asia, Pacific and China would be serving against the Soviets, that is 107 divisions the Soviets would be facing approximately 3 to 4 million men, plus the entire Japanese Navy and Army and Navy air forces, if this does not tie down the Soviet Far Eastern Front then i dont know what would, so no transference of men east by the Soviets, as the Central Asia, Ural, Transbaikal, and Far Eastern Fronts would be diverted to the Japanese offensive.

    Another part of the senario that is ignored and that Nationalist China signs the Anti-Commintern Pact with Japan, meaning Nationalist China would effectively fight Mao's Communist forces.

    Also none of you have answered this NO AMERICAN involvement in Europe, so Operation Torch, Overlord or USAAF bomber offensive, can Britain on her own launch these two operations alone. And can the Soviet Union survive without allied help on a two front war.
     
  9. Mussolini

    Mussolini Gaming Guru WW2|ORG Editor

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    My answer to that last question is simple: NO.

    BTW, whats the situation in North Africa during this 'scenario'?

    The British would not be able to amount a mainland-Europe invasion by itself. Does not have the manpower nor the vehicles/ships to be able to do so by itself. The troops that were occupied by the Normandy Landings would be sent to Eastern Front, putting additional pressure on Russia. Japan pressing in from other side, with its own 'Never Surrender' Attitude would put losses on both sides in the Millions. I think Russia would be literally be bled dry in such a protracted war with no additional help. Perhaps another early truce (like in WWI) to save itself?
     
  10. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    Even given the above, the Japanese are largely doomed. The problem is that they are fighting in a huge expanse of what is essentially barren wilderness. Their army lacks the necessary means to support large scale operations logistically over the kinds of distances involved here.
    Japan's Navy is essentially useless for a Sino-Soviet campaign. They could contribute some air units but that is about the extent of their use.
    The Soviets could easily give some ground in exchange for causing the Japanese more casualties and making their operations more difficult.

    If anything, the biggest effect is putting the stipulation of no American support to Russia or the Allied forces in Europe. This has a greater impact than the inclusion of Japan in operations against Russia does.
    Of course, this does stretch the bounds of reality quite a bit to happen.
     
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  11. Roddoss72

    Roddoss72 Member

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    The last quote first, you still don't get it, if you can't have an active imagination in hypotheticals then there is not much i can do.

    The Japanese would no be wandering around the "Wilderness" as you smuggly assume, they go after strategic targets like the Tran-Siberian railway and key ports and industries. And not trying to occupy all of the Siberia. The Imperial Japanese Navy would wip out the Soviet Pacific Fleet, bombard ports by naval and aerial means, transport Imperial Marines onto the mainland and act as a line of communication and supply to land based troops. Yes the Soviets could give ground but eventually they would have to engage Japanese forces to retake lost territory.

    So, if my understanding is that you consideration of my senario is that the Soviet Union could still carry the day with no help from anyone facing a two front war which involves approximately 400 divisions, no transference of any of its forces east of the Urals to help in the west, while in the first 6 months of the war the Soviets lost 3.5 million men in the west alone, and most likely a further 2 million in the east, your faith in the Soviet Union is impressive. Oh one salient fact in this senario Marshal Georgi Zhukov would remain in the east with his Far Eastern Front.

    On one more point you are always throwing impressive facts and figures my way to defeat me, so answer me this HOW MANY T-34/76 were in the East as of 22nd June 1941. I read your link, you state the Soviet would have 50 divisions, i mentioned Japan attacking with 107 divisions, slightly outnumbered don't you think.
     
  12. Falcon Jun

    Falcon Jun Ace

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    Given the parameters you've set, the Russians would've taken cared of the Japanese troops if Japan invaded Russia.

    Why do I say this?
    The Imperial Japanese Navy might be able to transport and supply troops while these forces are still near a port or beach. However, the Japanese didn't have that efficient a logistical system to continue supplying their troops further inland. Most probably, the Japanese would've ended up using infantry as pack mules to transport supplies, which would be a very inefficient method given the size of the invaded land and the force opposing it.
    The Soviet Navy would've been sunk, I agree but the Japanese ships would be of very very marginal use once the Japanese troops are deep in land. What would be needed by that time would be more transport and tanks.

    Bottomline, a Japanese invasion of Russia given your scenario would've lengthened the World War II timeline but I believe the Russians would still manage to defeat the Japanese invasion. But defeat Japan as a nation, I doubt it. The Russians wouldn't have the capability to carry the fight to Japan while still being engaged by the Germans.
     
  13. Slipdigit

    Slipdigit Good Ol' Boy Staff Member WW2|ORG Editor

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    Like I said in a PM to you a few weeks ago, Terry...
     
  14. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    I think a look at a map is necessary here. The Japanese as I have pointed out were able to barely sustain one division in a static defense at Nomohan about 300 miles from a railhead. How are they going to sustain any worthwhile force 600 to 1000 miles from their supply bases? There are no roads worth mentioning (at Nomohan they improvised a dirt one that was barely sustainable and that was over just steppe. When you throw in rivers or rougher terrain it ain't happening).
    The Soviet Pacific Fleet is basically a non-entity. Japan has nothing to fight at sea with the Soviets. The same goes for attacking bases or land targets. There is little in the way of targets within range of a naval strike. Also, there is no such thing as "Imperial Marines." The only infantry-like forces the Japanese Navy has are a handful of Special Naval Landing Forces which are battalion sized landing units of sailors seconded to be infantry.

    The Soviets would have been fully aware of Japanese preparations for a conflict. First, they would be able to see the build up of troops in Manchuria. Second their spy network was excellent. So, they would be able to react in good time to a Japanese offensive. Whether Zhukov stays in the Far East or not would make little difference really so I don't see where you are going with that. He is only one of a number of reasonably competent generals and marshalls that the Soviets had.
    My "faith" in the Soviets versus the Japanese is based on the multiple combats that the two had in border clashes in the late 30's. Japan consistantly lost everyone with heavy casualties. They lost ground and had to conceed to Soviet demands each time. That is not much of a track record to base certain victory on.

    I will look up the T34/76 number. But, even older BT series and T 26 etc tanks are more than a match for the Japanese. Also, of the 107 divisions you speculate the Japanese can muster I doubt the number. First, there is the issue of logistics. Could Japan sustain that number in Manchuria? Probably not. Second, how many of those are "A" or "B" divisions versus static "C" divisions that made up the bulk of the Japanese army historically. Most of the time the A and B divisions numbered about 10 to 20 at most of their military. These are the shock divisions that did the bulk of the fighting. The C units were not offensively capable.
    You might also want to look at the terrain the Japanese would be fighting on in many cases. It is really, really bad ground to assault across.
     
  15. Sloniksp

    Sloniksp Ставка

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    Japanese as a military LAND power was worse then US, Great Britain, Germany and Russia.
    Weapos were absolete. They had no tanks and virtually any form of Mechanized infantry. Russia only had 40,000 miles of paved road. Which means the Japanese too would be stuck in the rain season as the Germans were in October during operation Typhoon. They however would be in Siberia. The Japnese were a tropical people in comparison to the European powers. They had NO winter clothing to support the climate of Russia.


    As for the Soviet casualties Roddoss. The Soviets actually lost 4.5 million, 3.1 of which either perished, were captured or were missing in the first 6 months. However the Soviet Union during the months of Sept. to Dec. 1941 was able to raise and additional 2 million men. The Soviet military in Oct. amounted to 2.1 million. By December it numbered 4.1 million. Unlike the Germans who suffered 1 million casualties and received less the 200,000 replacements and was shrinking, the Soviet military was GROWING at as pace which no one predicted. ;)

    So here is my question to you. The Japanese attack. The Mongols are enstructed to wear them down. Since Japan had a smaller millitary then Germany and logistics would be have been more comlicated, replacements would be minimal if any. Who is to say that the Russias wouldnt sucker them in further inland bleeding them dry ( similar to way the Germans were in front of Moscow in November ) this time however with the help of Mongolia. Then when absolutely exhausted ( no mechanized infantry remember? ) and absolutely freezing ( no winter clothes ) with no reinforcements and in a much weaker state then enitially beginning. The Soviets would just encircle them and destroy whats left with numerical and technological superiority?

    In virtually all engagements prior, the Japanese suffered worse casualties. So where does this figure of 2 million casualties come from?
     
  16. lwd

    lwd Ace

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    In referance to the Soviet industry in Siberia. I belive most of it wasn't far from the Urals. That's a goodly hike from where the Japanese would jump off.

    The answer is the US gets around the neutrality act pretty much the way Roosevelt was doing it historically. So the US does become involved it just happens 2-8 months later. At which point the US also goes to war with Japan after having built up the defences, air, and naval forces of PH and the Philipines. They may get a few months window where the US will sell them stuff but possibly not. The oil in the East Indies is controlled for the most part by the Dutch governemnt in excile (London based). I suspect they wouldn't be selling much to Japan once they went to war with the Soviets.

    As for the Nationalist fighting the Reds. That's a given indeed it happened historically anyway. The problem for Japan is they are still fighting a gurilla campaign in the occupied parts of China and must leave a significant amount of their army protecting the border with China and garroning the occupied parts of territories.
     
  17. tikilal

    tikilal Ace

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    Here is my two cents at the moment.

    1) Just like to remind you that Russia lost a war to Poland.

    2) It snows in Japan, and is not considered tropical by any stretch of the imagination.
     
  18. Sloniksp

    Sloniksp Ставка

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    Russia did not loose to Poland. I believe that me and you have already had this discussion ;)

    Yes you are correct, it absolutely does. However the Japanese mostly fought in the pacific and therefor was equipped quite well for that type of combat. Siberia is a long way from what the Japanese were used to.

    I stand by my comment. The Pacific campaign in comparison to the Siberia is indeed tropical. :D
     
  19. Repulse

    Repulse Member

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    still i would reckon the japanese would of (if nationlist china signed the anti-comitern pact and the germans where still in the west) might of broken through DO NOT underestimate the japanese look at pearl harbour it might of failed because they did not send a thrid wave but the japanese thougt it through for months and months trying to get right they would of done this with the USSR in a giant surprise attack that could of broken through. (probably) the japanese might of designed new winter clothing who knows they might of won.
     
  20. Roddoss72

    Roddoss72 Member

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    See the thing the usual suspects don't or won't consider is that the Japanese would tie down the Central, Transbaikal, Far Eastern Commands so all those troops that would otherwise have been sent to the west would now be entrenched in the east. Also i point out that the Japanese only have to go as far as the Trans-Siberian Railway and to capture it entrapping those in the east and cutting of any supplies from the Ural idustrial centres.

    And Yes the Soviets got their bums smacked by Poland, and initially by Finland, so i would hate to see those battle hardened Japanese troops that fought in China facing the ill-diciplined and untried troops in the East, also if thousands of Japanese were prepared to sacrifice themselves for the Emperor in the last stages of the war, death meant nothing to the Japanese, oh and one thing you have forgotten how may Soviet POW's would survive the war, not many.

    Sloniksp make a good point about the Japanese having no tanks, just looking at the topography of that particular area, tanks would be useless, it is like sending an entire Panzer Armee through the Caucasus. So tanks on both sides would be useless, no this would be an old fashioned footslogger war. Most of the two million men you indicate came from the East with the tranference of many divisions from there.
     
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