Operation Barbarossa - the UK is neutral and Japan attacks Siberia

No, Hitler didn't inform the Japanese of his plans in relation to the USSR and Poland. He didn't even inform Mussolini. Mussolini was caught by surprise with the Polish invasion, and was one of the reasons he felt free to attack in the Balkans without informing Hitler later. These guys weren't really "allies", not in the true sense.

 

In his Weisung nr 24(5 march 1941),Hitler explicitely was forbidding to tell anything about Barbarossa to the Japanese.

 

Another major factor is that the Japanese army was not ready for major operations against the Soviets, it would take several months to build up the troops. The army probably did not have the means to fight a major war against the Soviets and Chinese. They did lend some division for the drive south but most of those were for Burma which they felt supported the Chinese operation.

 

Also contrary to popular belief SU didn't totally striped of her defenses in far east with transfer of men and material to west and maintained quite a large force in far east during the GPW.

"Soviet strength in far east"

Date Personnel Guns& mortars Tanks& SP-guns Combat Planes

22/6/41 703714 10080 3188 4140
01/12/41 1343307 8777 2124 3193
01/07/42 1440012 11759 2589 3178
19/11/42 1296882 12728 2526 3357
01/07/43 1156961 13843 2367 3949
01/01/44 1102991 16827 2009 4006
09/05/45 1185085 20695 2338 4314



"From soviet official history of ww2"

So, I don't see how Japan could mount a large scale successful invasion in soviet territory while still being bogged down in china..

 

Chiang and his Armies were not active in attacking Japan as Stilwell discovered despite massive amounts of US help in the later years of 1942-45. Chiang's eyes were on defeating Mao. As long as the Japanese did not seriously threaten him, Chiang was not going to move. Furthermore there is simply no route for the American to supply Chiang once Burma, Hong Kong and Vietnam block US supply. So this leaves Japan with a more latitude to strike down the Russians.

I think you neglect just how involved Stalin was in China. On 7 November 1940 (symbolically the anniversary of the Bolshevik revolution) Mao appealed to Stalin to let him strike at Chiang's rear. Stalin refused permission since he wanted to prevent the collapse of China. Stalin recognised how important it was to protect his back - a two front war must have been a his greater nightmare at that stage. Japan bogged down in China suited him fine.

In someways Zukov's victory whilst commendable was not a major battle should have alerted the Japanese to eliminate the Russian threat will they could.

The Russians already had defacto control of Xinjiang and Outer Mongolia and his protege Mao, the three Northern States of Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia.

Long term the Soviets and Mao were going to be Japan's most formidable enemy - so the sensible thing is to defeat them while they are still weak and Russia is preoccupied with Germany.
And as we all know the ultimate victor was Stalin via his pupil Mao.

The clever thing to do would have been to soft soap the Americans - let China alone for a while, in conjunction with Hitler defeat Russia and then scoop up China.

 

And I suggest you read this long article in the online WW2 magazine.

Goto:

World War II: Soviet and Japanese Forces Battle at Khalkhin Gol

 

I agreed scipio. Letting the Chinese and Russian Communists in the neighborhood was simply too much dangerous. Nuclear weapons were not yet a reality and the Japanese Islands were very vulnerable to air attacks. Along with this logic, there's the logic the Japanese didn't wanted war with the ABDA countries IF the negociations had went well. Even because if they taked the resources of the Chinese and Russians they would have the ABDA countries to trade.

Here more information that supports this Japanese idea:

Following the invasion of the USSR on 22 June 1941, pressure was placed on the Japanese government to join the invasion. On 9 July 1942, Ribbentrop tried to convince Ōshima to urge his government to join the attack on the Soviet Union. Ribbentrop's main argument being that "never again would Japan have such an opportunity as existed at present to eliminate once and for all the Russian colossus in eastern Asia".[10] On 6 March 1943, Ōshima delivered Ribbentrop the following official statement from the Japanese government:

"The Japanese Government absolutely recognize the danger which threatens from Russia and completely understand the desire of their German ally that Japan on her part will also enter the war against Russia. However, it is not possible for the Japanese Government, considering the present war situation, to enter into the war. They are rather of the conviction that it would be in the common interest not to start the war against Russia now. On the other hand, the Japanese Government would never disregard the Russian question".

 

Again the Russian/Western perspective about the consequences. I'm defending the Japanese perspective here.

 

That is a loosing perspective, they blundered in the conflict, lost a royal prince to capture, and much "honor" as well.

 

Yep, critical error there.

 

Of course it is a "loosing" perspective. And this is just because most disagreed. It's a "recent" thing in the Western debacle circles. As I've already told it, it perhaps will take years, decades until the "ZHUKOV owned the Japanese, they were with fear of attack the USSR!" perspective be lifted. The same thing happened with talks about anything positive regarding the Axis until some time passed after the war ended. "Allied" people simply didn't accepted anything but victory and superiority. I'm the kind of guy who in the future is likely to be part of the "exceptions" in historical thinking of it's time about this subject.

 

A good way to destroy or at least bring to question your position is statements like this.

 

The first chapter sample of this book is interesting: Rising sun victorious: the alternate ... - Peter Tsouras - Google Livros

By the way, in Alvin Cox Nomonhan: Japan against Russia, what is his view in the page 1153 about a hypotetical Japanese attack in the USSR in '41? (still don't have the book, Google Books don't have this page )

Anyway, in this scenario, with Britain out, and the US also likely out, the Anglo Americans certanly would reinforce much more their colonies in the Pacific. In this case, I belive the Japanese would probably conduct the North Plan insteated of the South. Without an occupation of the Southern Indochina (considerated by me due to the stronger Western presence), and without an oil embargo, the Go North proponentes would have a much better chance of try convince the rest of the leadership for elimination of the Soviet treat once for all.

But what is letting me more worried for the Axis here is not Japan, but Hitler; any plausible political manuvers he could use to foolish Stalin and launch the same historical surprissed Barbarossa? If this do not happen, things could became very different for the Axis...

 

With Oil being the key here and Japans need for it they can either -

1. Invade the Dutch and British Empires and hope the USA will not enter the war.
2. Prepare for and invade the USSR along with Germany hoping they can defeat it in 1941 or 1942 in order to access its resources.

Both are gambles but both are better than the choice they took.

 

Both are gambles but it's not at all clear that both are better.
If they choose 1 and the US reiforces the Philipines substantially before entering the war Japan is cut off from the Dutch oil with essentially no offensive effort required by the US. What's more their entire military will likely be off balance.
If they coose 2 where does the oil come from and when? Note that at best it will be several years and Japan will have burned up a lot of their reserves leaving them almost helpless if the US and Britain enter the war.

 

Will the USA enter the war unprovoked?
If so when?

2. Prepare for and invade the USSR along with Germany hoping they can defeat it in 1941 or 1942 in order to access its resources.

 

Of course not, but then the axis activities had already provoked the US. Remember FDR had issued his shoot on sight orders well before PH and the AVG headed overseas in the summer of 41.

That would depend a great deal on what happened along the way. FDR's military advisors wanted him to wait until Spring at the earliest and would have felt better waiting until summer of 42 or even that winter. Their assessement was that the US would be ready for war in June or July of 42 and ready to go over to the offensive that winter. By May the Japanese would likely have had a hard time taking the Phillipines as well. My guess would be some time between June of 42 and January of 43 if there was no spectacular incident. Probably earlier if there was one.

Can they? and what resources. Japan would be lucky to get any oil from Soviet territory in 43 with the exception of a little from some of the islands near Japan. It's also not at all clear that the IJA could defeate the Red army forces in Siberia and don't forget they had this little war going with China. One that the US was getting more and more involved in.

 

So what excuse would FDR use to declare war on all three Axis powers at the same time?

The plan of a combined attack on the USSR would be to bring about the collapse of the entire state as expected by the Germans in 1941 or maybe 1942.
If that occurred then oil could be transported by the trans Siberian railway to the Japanese Empire.

 

Thier activities would be reason enough. The final push would likely be a specific incident but based on the Gallup polls of the time the majority of the US population and Congress would have been behind him at that point.

That was indeed the German plan without the Japanese. It didn't work. The Red Army had sufficient forces in the East to hold what forces the IJA could commit there, or at least had a good chance at it.

If the Japanese succeed in taking Siberia the trans Siberian railway is going to be pretty throughly trashed. If they don't succeed then there is likely to be an independent Siberian republic even if the USSR falls and they are unlikely to be friendly to the Japanese. Then there's the matter of rolling stock and getting the wells back in production and refineries for that matter.

 

Transporting oil from the Caucasus to Japan :it is the end of the month :Jokers day