Welcome to the WWII Forums! Log in or Sign up to interact with the community.

Peak oil

Discussion in 'The Members Lounge' started by jeaguer, Nov 11, 2007.

  1. jeaguer

    jeaguer New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2006
    Messages:
    929
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Sydney Australia
    via TanksinWW2
    .

    Oh well , better to get it out of my system

    There is a theory , based on Mr. king Hubbert that as the cheap and easy to extract oil field get depleted , the smallers and hard to reach fields are used ,
    the rate of oil extraction will reach a maximum ,then decrease .

    It is not that were are going to suddenly run dry , simply that there will be a decreasing output , slowly at first , then faster ( ~ 5% a year )
    This is totally accepted by the oil industry , the U.S. geological survey and the majors oil companies ,
    the only point of contention is ..When
    a number of people are saying it is in fact happening now !! with demand increasing 2% a year and production flat at about 85 Millions Barrels day, there is a bidding war on top of some serious speculation , weak U.S.dollar and geopolitical grief.

    It has some very serious consequences for the wagging of modern war which is very energy intensive ,
    the pentagon bill passing 13 billions last year

    the people in charge of the purchase and distribution are the Defence Energy Support Center

    http://www.desc.dla.mil/default.asp

    This coming shortage was foreseen by a number of oil industry professionals and a number of public figure , including the VP Dick Cheney

    There is no changing it , it's a geological fact . on the bright side it mean we don't have to worry too much about climate change , the reductions are going to happen naturally with a trebling of the bowser price .



    .
     
  2. Stix

    Stix New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2005
    Messages:
    940
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    nowhere
    via TanksinWW2
    Though few people stop to think about it, it is slowly becoming an accepted fact that within this century oil will run out, possibly along with gas and maybe even coal.
    Ignoring the economical effects this does mean research for alternative sources of useable energy becomes increasingly important.
     
  3. wozwasnt

    wozwasnt New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2007
    Messages:
    53
    Likes Received:
    0
    via TanksinWW2
    The biggest problem is a lack of refineries. They can pump more oil out of the ground but there aren't enough refineries to deal with any increase in oil production.

    Also demand for refined oil is increasing faster then new refineries can be built. Then when you throw in the odd hurricane which means that refineries have to be shut down then the problems get even worse.
     
  4. jeaguer

    jeaguer New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2006
    Messages:
    929
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Sydney Australia
    via TanksinWW2
    .

    To Wozwasnt, not really the problem is getting the stuff out of the ground

    To stix , I can see a peak energy argument in there :grin: ,
    admiral Rickover , the father of the nuclear subs fleet had seem it coming

    So far there is no alternative but fast breeders reactors ....Yuckkk
    hydro is limited by geography , wind is unreliable , photovoltaics are very polluting in their manufacturing and produce less energy that it take to make them , the only alternative with a bit of reality is solar thermal collector connected to a stirling engine ,
    For information it's possible to make gas from coal , the germans did it and more recently the south-African in the Sasol power plants , it's cost efficient at about 50$ per barrel

    but Stix is right , within one or two generations we are going to run out of fossil fuel .

    Then for a while , it will get really bad , like the soylent green movie with charlton Heston :( :( :(

    ultimately it will of course stabilize itself at a new population level ,
    like ~500 millions .



    .
     
  5. majorwoody10

    majorwoody10 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2005
    Messages:
    1,898
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    ca.usa
    via TanksinWW2
    yes , its not that there will be no oil ...its just that there wont be CHEAP high grade oil anymore ..this is going to have a profound effecrt on life as we have always known it ,in electic power ,home heating , transportation ,food production ,everythjing ..i have eleven year old boy , when i reflect on my own carefree past half century , i feel somewhat guilty and more than a little foreboding for the next 40 years of his world ....
     
  6. jeaguer

    jeaguer New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2006
    Messages:
    929
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Sydney Australia
    via TanksinWW2
    .

    well , things always turn out all right anyway , the U.S. ( and Australia ) are blessed with large amount of coal , the Canadians brothers also should be good
    Europe will suffer a lot more
    Anyway this power hungry society is great fun to be in but there is a price to it ,it's eating people up
    maybe a simpler lifestyle will not be all bad , I grew up in the Sixties from humble parents and it was good
    The bitch is going to be the transition ,
    that will be a BaaaaD ride , especially in the big cities for the services industries and public servants
    I've planned my retirement in a nice small country town with a good garden :p

    Anyway I win !! :grin:
     
  7. Canadian_Super_Patriot

    Canadian_Super_Patriot recruit

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2005
    Messages:
    2,579
    Likes Received:
    0
    via TanksinWW2
    Alternative energy is slowly inching its way forward again. It just needed a the recent push from rising oil costs and environmental concerns
     
  8. me262 phpbb3

    me262 phpbb3 New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2004
    Messages:
    3,627
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Porter,TX
    via TanksinWW2
    we also have the biofuels, but unfortunately comes with a controversy: the use of food for fuel, specially corn , but nobody complain when those grains are used for alcoholic beverages.
    as oil, coal can be exhausted and is the worst on pollution!!!!!!
    an unexploited source of fuel, are landfields ( and we have a lots of them!!!!!), they generate heat and methane
     
  9. Revere

    Revere New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2005
    Messages:
    1,094
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Iowa, US
    via TanksinWW2
    The effects of coal on the environment have been going down since the 70's. In most places the air and water is cleaner then 30-40 years ago.
     
  10. Grieg

    Grieg New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    2,625
    Likes Received:
    0
    via TanksinWW2
    Shale is plentiful in the US also and can be converted to shale oil. (62 % of known reserves are in the US) I'm not certain at what price it becomes economically feasible, though.

    EDIT- according to a Rand Corporation study oil shale production becomes economically feasible when oil prices reach 70-95 dollars per barrel.
     
  11. majorwoody10

    majorwoody10 New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2005
    Messages:
    1,898
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    ca.usa
    via TanksinWW2
    the peak oil forcasters are not unaware of the shale and sand oil reserves . all oil reserves are finite and we have all these pesky third worlders who now want to drive cars intsead of donkeys and rickshaws and there is a lot of them too....
     
  12. me262 phpbb3

    me262 phpbb3 New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2004
    Messages:
    3,627
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Porter,TX
    via TanksinWW2
    hey, you mean that third world peoples can not drive cars?
    what gives you the right to be the only ones to drive?
    US uses third worls oil, that it belong to them not you

    to revere: if that is truth, how come the US do not want to sign the Kyoto protocol, to cut the emission of CO2? ( coz we are the biggest pollutant!!!)

    to grieg: the price is already in that range, what are they waiting for?
     
  13. Revere

    Revere New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2005
    Messages:
    1,094
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Iowa, US
    via TanksinWW2
    Well the source I got that from was a coal commercial :) so you can decide whether thats reliable or not.
     

Share This Page