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Pearl Harbor Conspiracy?

Discussion in 'Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theories' started by broke91hatch, Apr 16, 2008.

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  1. Volga Boatman

    Volga Boatman Dishonorably Discharged

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    I would like to point out something small.

    In the post PH soul-searching, PLENTY of contemporary Americans tried to pin the blame for PH on Roosevelt.

    You can bet your sweet patootie that if some of that mud-slinging had stuck, FDR would have worn it at the time....

    It didn't.

    WHY do we keep raking this old chestnut out of the fire? I thought we buried this one a while ago.
     
  2. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    It's the "smoking gun principle".

    "IF I can find just one thing that proves FDR knew in advance, I'll have my smoking gun."

    The problem is that nothing happens in isolation. So the smoking gun would have to be part of the larger context. And that larger context doesn't support a smoking gun.

    And finally, this obsession with reading JN-25b makes me wonder what they expect to find in those still-classified messages? Their fishing expeditions are annoying to the folks who do serious study on this matter. And the Japanese were security conscious enough to not say, "Okay, you lot go bomb Pearl Harbor."

    I remember that Wiley told me they broadcast the plans for the attack. ONE HUNDRED PAGES of planning documents, via Morse code? Good luck with your attempt to kill your telegraphers. (Oh, I know, it would have been vastly simpler to print the plans out and take them to the ships via couriers, but that wouldn't give us a smoking gun, now would it?)
     
  3. R Leonard

    R Leonard Member

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    Stormy?? Your research results?
     
  4. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    I made it clear in 2 previous posts that I wasn't making an accussation that we had broken JN-25 prewar and knew the plan of attack and let it happen. I should have made it clearer that there's a difference between having the ability to read the code and having actually decrypted the messages in a timely manner.

    SRH-149 makes it clear that we at least had the ability to read some of JN-25B in the summer of 1941.

    I agree that Wiley makes conclusions that aren't supported by the facts.

    OpanaPointer I don't understand why you think there's nothing of value in the still classified JN-25B decrypts? Especially considering the NSA's blatant disregard for the truth in regards to all aspects of JN-25B codebreaking. Your attitude does not come across as someone who is interested in serious study. 'The problem is that nothing happens in isolation. So the smoking gun would have to be part of the larger context. And that larger context doesn't support a smoking gun.' That is not a factual argument, it's your "expert" opinion. SPARE ME! What your saying is, because my research has shown there wasn't a 'smoking gun', there couldn't possibly be anything in the classified decrypts that would show otherwise, because nothing happens in isolation. Again, thanks for your opinion, I want to see the decrypts, but only if it doesn't annoy you too much.
     
  5. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    "What your saying is" is my favoritist expression in the whole world.

    So far you've misrepresented my position on every point. Try to clean that up, please.
     
  6. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    Is that the best you can do?
     
  7. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    This isn't a contest, it's a forum dedicated to WWII.
     
  8. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    Well then I suggest we stick to the real issue here, the classified decrypts. Your opinion is there's nothing of value in them. You may be right but it's not a fact. Maybe you should read your first reply to me, you implied I made a conclusion that I specifically said I wasn't making. I'm sure you've heard the saying about the pot calling the kettle black.
     
  9. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    Where did I say that?
    You come here with a class five CT, not even rewritten. We've seen that before, many times.
     
  10. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    However, given the overall picture we really don't need that file. If the USN or FDR had known the attack was coming there is absolutely no good reason for them to have "just let it happen." Is that not what your saying? Please explain.

    What CT did I claim? How many times do I have to repeat that I'm not making a claim that we had decrypted JN-25B transmissions that gave us specific information about Japanese plans on Dec. 7th.
     
  11. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    It means that I have to reason to think there is a smoking gun in those files. I've already said that.
    I really don't care what you claim. You're OP is a classic conspiracy theory. Now, either you're ignorant of the whole field and have never heard that one before, which I seriously doubt, or you know it's a conspiracy theory and want to play innocent. Either way, it's still a conspiracy theory. Even your protestations that it's not a CT are tediously familiar.

    Regardless, however, you demand to know what's in those files. Fine, you can do that. Just don't bother trying to work the innuendo game on us, we've seen it too many times already.
     
  12. formerjughead

    formerjughead The Cooler King

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    The thing that never ceases to amaze me is how through hindsight everyone is a cryptoanalyst.

    The only solid eveidence that was available regarding the pending Japanese attack was that there was going to be an attack somewhere during the first week of December- most likely.

    Cryptology is all about ambiguity and context. All breaking a code does is allow the other person to read what is being said; not necessarily the specifics of what is being talked about.

    Pearl Harbor was on the list of possible targets as were many other Naval Bases and US interests scattered around the Pacific.

    In the Fall of 1941 the cryptoanalysts only had a very small window of context for the comming events. 70 years later that small window is a gaping hole and we can easily put the pieces together.

    Opana is one voice on this forum I do not question as his knowledge of the subject is as boundless as his humility.
     
  13. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    Hush, you'll scare him away. :D

    Anyway, I don't mind questions, if they're a challenge they're interesting. But having seen this "JN-25 files hold THE SECRET to Pearl Harbor" is tiresome.
     
  14. formerjughead

    formerjughead The Cooler King

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    hmmmm for some reason this springs to mind:
    YouTube - Classic Looney Tunes
     
  15. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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  16. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    Have you seen the files? No. So you can't say "there's no reason". Conspiracy theorist harp on anything that isn't available as "THE KEY" to the whole thing. Tedious.

    And yes, the thread is titled "Pearl Harbor Conspiracy", not "Pearl Harbor Conspiracy Theory". In the ten years this forum has been running the CTs have been brought up time and time again, and nobody's ever provided any evidence for one of them. Including the one you're espousing.
     
  17. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    OK, let me rephrase that, there's no national security reason why those decrypts shouldn't be made public after 70 years.

    What conspiracy theory am I espousing? I'll qoute you:

    " It would be nice to see all that material declassified, but until it has been I suggest withholding judgment until we're aware of the full facts in the matter."

    You are making a judgement about me for saying exactly that. I think you need to follow your own advice and stop being so condescending especially with the CT tag.
     
  18. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    And you know this how?

    You are espousing the CT that those files will reveal foreknowledge of the attack, and thus the administration "just let it happen". And you know that. I do not believe for a second that you are not aware that it is a classic CT.

    So, asking for the release of the records, no big deal, just file an FOIA. Why don't you come back when you've read them and tell us all what they say?
     
  19. StormyB4

    StormyB4 Member

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    And you know this how?

    This will go nowhere.....obviously that's a judgement call.

    You are espousing the CT that those files will reveal foreknowledge of the attack, and thus the administration "just let it happen". And you know that. I do not believe for a second that you are not aware that it is a classic CT.

    No I am not!! You are assuming. Even if they did show some foreknowledge it doesn't necessarily mean FDR knew. That's an assumption on your part. I'm not interested in blaming anyone, it was 70 years ago, I don't care about blame! So when you said we need to "hold judgement until all the facts are in", you didn't really mean that did you. Of course I'm aware of this "classic CT" as you call it, I read the book that this threads about. As I said before, Wiley makes all kinds of assumptions that aren't backed by the facts.

    So, asking for the release of the records, no big deal, just file an FOIA. Why don't you come back when you've read them and tell us all what they say?[

    As you are are fully aware that's already been done, so we'll assume your just spewing rhetoric. Didn't you say it would be nice to see those decrypts? I guess you didn't really mean that either did you? As you said "WE DON'T HAVE ALL THE FACTS", why can't you just leave it at that?
     
  20. OpanaPointer

    OpanaPointer I Point at Opana Staff Member Patron   WW2|ORG Editor

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    You don't know, so you can't say there's no harm to releasing them. Is that clear?
    You are promoting a conspiracy theory. That's why I keep saying it. I'm not interested in your motivations, even if I were inclined to believe what you say about them.
    I said it would be nice to see those decrypts. It would shut up the fringers about them. But then they'd just go on to something else. Other than that, I'm not particularly interested in them. If we had been reading JN-25b before Pearl Harbor we wouldn't have been struggling so hard to find out what "AF" was six months laters.
     

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