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Probability of hits?

Discussion in 'The War at Sea' started by liang, Sep 15, 2004.

  1. liang

    liang New Member

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    During the American-Spanish war (?1898), when Admiral Dewey's modern squadron squared of against the obsolete Spanish fleet outside of Manilla bay, it was estimated that only 1 out of several hundred rounds fired ever found its target!!
    I wonder if there are estimations of probability of hits in WWI, let's say during Jutland. What about WWII, where radar and better range-finders became available. Forget the range, the weather, and the other elements that are involved.
     
  2. Tony Williams

    Tony Williams Member

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    I don't have exact figures but I believe that in most circumstances hit probability was very low - a few percent. The only exception was where ships could get very close before firing, e.g. Matapan, or finishing off the Bismarck.

    Tony Williams: Military gun and ammunition website and discussion
    forum
     
  3. Notmi

    Notmi New Member

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    And "luck" has something to do with hit probability. You could get several straddles but that doesn't mean you actually hit anything but water. And then again, with luck you could get several hits with one straddle.
     
  4. liang

    liang New Member

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    Ah yes Matapan, the probability of hits probably favored the british since half the Italian fleet were wiped out.
     
  5. Ebar

    Ebar New Member

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    Well actually the Italians lost three heavy cruisers and a couple of destroyers. British torpedo planes (albacore's I think) also took a lump out of one of their battleships.
     
  6. Tiornu

    Tiornu Member

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    Warships1 appears to be caput, but you can find much of the useful material at the new NavWeps site.
    http://www.navweaps.com/
    If you check the INRO articles there, you'll find Bill Jurens's excellent piece on US gunnery. He includes some figures on hits per gun per minute as calculated by the rules of peacetime shoots. Rules varied widely among the navies. The Japanese intercepted US target practice reports and concluded that they were scoring three times as many hits. British targets allowed for approximately 10% more hits than US targets.
    At minimal ranges (Matapan, Guadalcanal), multiple hits were possible. The greatest number of hits from a single salvo, to the best of my knowledge, was seven. USS San Francisco achieved this during First Guadalcanal, but the urge to congratulate must be tempered by the knowledge that she was firing at USS Atlanta at the time.
     
  7. corpcasselbury

    corpcasselbury New Member

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    Yeah, of all the times to get that many hits in one salvo! :(
     
  8. Notmi

    Notmi New Member

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    Thank you for the link, I'll bookmark that up. Do you have any idea when warships1 will come back or will it do it at all?
     
  9. Tiornu

    Tiornu Member

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    It may well be dead. Guy Derdall has not been heard from, even by other people involved in running the site, for months.
     
  10. Notmi

    Notmi New Member

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    That really scares me, hopefully he is ok.
     

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