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Soviet Japan

Discussion in 'What If - Pacific and CBI' started by JCFalkenbergIII, Jan 25, 2008.

  1. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    I love "What Ifs" LOL. What If after the Soviet Operation "Ausgust Storm" the Soviets went through with thier plans to seize the northern island of Hokkaido not stopping with the Kuriles Islands so that the Japanese islands would become similar to Germany and be divided up?The US goverment was going to supply the USSR with landing craft and equipment to help with Operation "Olympic". So if the Atomic bombs had not been ready in time or used Operation "Olympic" would have gone ahead. What do you think the US and Allied reaction whould have been? Would MacArthur have stood for it? Could it have succeeded? Would the Atomic bombs be used for another reason somewhere else? Did the USSR have sufficient forces? And What could the Japanese do against being attacked by both the Allies and the Soviets? Lottas "IFs". Robert
     
  2. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    Does anyone else have more information about this project? How many ships were we going to give or lend to the Soviets? IIRC It was going to be over 137 ships. And what else were we going to supply them with?

    Project HULA: Soviet-American Cooperation in the War Against Japan, by Richard A. Russell. No. 4 in The U.S. Navy in the Modern World series. 1997.


    This work describes the little known subject of Soviet and American naval cooperation in the North Pacific during the final months of World War II. Until 1945, Soviet reluctance to fight a two-front war and Japanese acquiescence to the movement of vital lend-lease supplies to the Soviet Far East ensured Soviet neutrality in the Pacific War. A frustrated U.S. government, which had sought basing rights for heavy bombers in Siberia, finally secured Soviet agreement at the Yalta Conference, in February 1945, to enter the war by pledging U.S. military support and territorial concessions to the Soviet Union. In Project HULA, from April to September, a special U.S. Navy detachment trained Russian officers and men in handling the naval vessels scheduled for transfer to the Soviet Pacific Ocean Fleet. This top-secret operation brought Russian and American sailors together in the largest and most ambitious lend-lease program of World War II. Its unique purpose was to equip and train Soviet amphibious forces for the climactic fight against Japan.
    __________________
     
  3. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    The problem for the Soviets would have been a lack of landing craft etc., and the lack of experiance in amphibious assaults. First, the Soviets have no Pacific Fleet worth mentioning to support a landing. This alone gives the Japanese an excellent chance of throwing any landing back into the sea. Japan is largely out of range of Soviet air power which only excerbates the problem.
    While the Soviets might have landed on some of the smaller northern islands that were poorly defended they could not have managed a landing on anything with a substancial defense force on it. Even the poor Japanese coastal defenses could have made a hash of a Soviet landing.
    For the Soviets amphibious assaults and operations requiring sea power were not in the cards for them.
     
  4. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    But that is the wonder of "What Ifs" T.A. LOL. If they could have advanced down from southern Sakhalin and the Kuril islands and perhaps built airfields on them to support an invasion. And IF Operation "Olympic" had been conducted with the Soviets involved what would have stopped the Soviets from doing the same thing that they did to Germany and try to capture as much as thay could of Japanese territory? Would the US have allowed the Soviets to divide Japan? Especially MacArthur?
     
  5. von Rundstedt

    von Rundstedt Dishonorably Discharged

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    Ok here goes, Soviets convince the Allies to take on the responsibility of Operations Olympic and Coronet slated for sometime in 1946, so the US lends the 3,000 to 5,000 ships and other vessels estimated to be needed for the campaign, and to get them to Vladivostok without getting hammered by Kamikaze attacks

    Japan by this time would have had time to recover somewhat and built up and extensive home defence force of over 150 divisions or more, plus she would have at least something like 10,000 aircraft slated for Kamikaze role.

    I have a copy of declassified material on Operation Coronet and Olympic, they estimated some 2 million troops would be needed, and expected at least something like a 60% casualty rate if not more to achieve the land invasion of Japan.

    So if this was to occur the Soviets would suffer at least 1.2 million dead, with Hundreds of thousands wouned and missing, but just say after all this the Soviets prevail and win with the costliest battle in history, we then would have the Soviet Union incharge of the entire Northern Western Pacific.
     
  6. Za Rodinu

    Za Rodinu Aquila non capit muscas

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    Some people like wet dreams too.
     
  7. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    Hey! Why do all the "What Ifs" have to be in the ETO LOL? Besides you know the thought was going through good ol Stalin's mind LOL.
     
  8. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    I think this scenario is alot more feasible and realistic then some :p LOL.
     
  9. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    The Soviets and certainly Stalin would have had plans to accomplish this. Does anyone know of any information about it since the fall of the USSR?
     
  10. Falcon Jun

    Falcon Jun Ace

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    Since the Soviets didn't really have enough amphib experience, I doubt that they'd risk their troops in such a Soviet-run operation. What, I think, is more likely is that Soviet troops would be embarked on US ships to support Olympic and Coronet and the initial Soviet landing. However, Would MacArthur consider accepting a Soviet role in the invasion of Japan? That's a mystery. I won't even dare answer that question. There are too many variables to consider that it's giving me a headache.
     
  11. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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  12. ghost_of_war

    ghost_of_war Member

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    I have read one of the arguments out of Japan is, they only surrendered due to fear of a Soviet invasion on top of a possible US invasion. Basically, they claim the bombs wouldn't have been enough for a surrender. I think the victims of Nagasaki and Hiroshima might think differently on that one.
     
  13. Nickdfresh

    Nickdfresh Member

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    This is true. But the Soviets also had some bad experiences in the Kuriles, where they did suffer heavy casualties at points. And found the Japanese every bit as tough as the Americans did in Korea, where their advantage in armor was marginalized...
     
  14. Twitch

    Twitch Member

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    I have a slew of documents I obtained from freedom of information about the planning of the invasion and nowhere in 5 lbs. of it is there any discussion by the Joint Cheifs of any assistance to the Russians with landing craft or any other materiale. Where ever that business came from it certainly wasn't considered important enough for them to use in an scenario they conceived, and there were many from mild to wild plus utterly boring dialogue for page after page.

    Is that part of the fantasy "what if" or what?

    Von Runstedt- The US never had 3-5,000 ships to loan the Russkies. Certainly the US never had any more than 5,000 in the theater slated for invasion use. The Russians would have had to invade Honshu at the same time we were invading Kyushu.

    The American had been refining a plan for invasion but the Russians had none. The Americans would have had 35 beaches to assault on Kyushu at 17,135 sq. miles. Compare that with 5 on D-Day Europe. To be at all useful the Sovs would have to invade the 89,194 sq. mile main island, Honshu.

    Kyushsu was found to be a gigantic scale repro of the typical fortified Pacific island with booby traps and myriad other explosive trips, mines sink holes and tones more along with interconnecting tunnels and all underground facilities including aircraft launch facilities. Honshu would not have been any easier.

    The aircraft strength is as von Runstedt mentions contrary to popular belief that there were less than 2,000. Intel was completely unable to see the construction in caves. The Imperial Navy still had 40 submarines, 23 destroyers and a couple cruisers plus innumerable kaiten suicide mini-subs plus thousands of small, fast explosive-laden kamikaze motor boats.

    A cadre of suicide volunteers would have biological or chemical weapons as hung around their neck in breakable crockery containers.

    There were nearly 900,000 defenders on Kyushu, far above US estimates of 250,000 with 2,300,000 men at arms in Japan and a fresh 3 million man army in Manchuria. The National Volunteer Combat Force which consisted of 28 million! Boys as young as 15 and men as old as 60, as well as girls of 17 and women of 40 years of age were members. They were armed with outdated firearms, satchel charges, mines, Molotov cocktails, bows and axes right down to sharpened bamboo spears.

    And the unknown factor that no one discussing this subject even knows about was Typhoon Louise. This was a once in a 1,000 years storm akin to the divine wind that sank the Mongols in 1281.

    It was the worst typhoon in US Naval history swept the proposed armada assembly area off Okinawa on October 9, 1945. 403 ships were either sunk, destroyed beyond repair or scrapped. Countless aircraft were ripped to pieces in the 150 MPH winds along with hangars, other buildings and tents housing 150,000 troops. Harbor facilities were ruined, power was out and supplies blown away.

    Had Typhoon Louise set upon the 22 divisions of more than half a million invasion-ready personnel along with some estimated 5,000 ships and 4,000 aircraft, the devastation would certainly been worse and would have no doubt delayed the November 1st date to invade Kyushu probably to the end of typhoon season in the spring of 1946.

    The American planners had ridiculously optimisticly low fingures for the number of 16 weeks it was proposed to take Kyushu. We look at an 8 square miles island, Iwo Jima that took 5 weeks and 22,000 dead Japanese. Okinawa took 11 weeks and was just 611 sq. miles and 200,000 dead Japanese. Yeah so how long would it have taken to vanquish 900,000 men from Hyushu's 17,000 sq. miles?

    It would have taken YEARS more to completely conquer and dominate Japan even with the Russkies and unbelievably massive casualties on all sides.
     
  15. bf109 emil

    bf109 emil Member

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    When the USA request or agreed with Russia's aid in the fight with Japan, as the inevitable defeat or invasion of Japanese home Islands was still in question, Russia agreed to a 3 month term before starting hostilities...Germany surrendered on May 8, 3 months later, when the folly or requirement of Russia to defeat Japan was no longer needed, a swift end to hostilities was required to prevent, or allow Russia to gain or take part in the terms of Japan...2 days before Russia's 1,500,000 troops swept into China, the first Atomic bomb was dropped, either as a show of force, or to a quick ending has been the topic of numerable debates... but the unlikely hood of Russia sitting idle, while Allied forces entered Japan, deciding it's fate, with a close proximity to Russia is nil, they would have taken it upon themselves to invade with or without the US consent, and helped to divide or obtain a piece of the Japanese pie.
     
  16. JCFalkenbergIII

    JCFalkenbergIII Expert

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    Hmmmmmmm. I dont recall the US or Soviets fighting the Japanese in Korea LOL.
     
  17. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    Sorry, but the reality of the situation was that the Soviets could do what they wanted in Manchuria, the US could not stop them or even exert much influence there. But the Home Islands of Japan were in the US realm of operations, and the Soviets, thanks to the US Pacific Fleet, not only needed US permission to invade the Home Islands, they also needed the active help of the US. That simply was not in the cards, mo matter how much Stalin might plead with Truman to be included in the final occupation of the Japanese islands.
     
  18. T. A. Gardner

    T. A. Gardner Genuine Chief

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    The Soviets couldn't have pulled off a successful landing on even some of the smaller islands. They simply didn't have the landing craft and shipping in the Pacific to do it.
    Their Pacific Fleet was wholly dependent on lend-lease vessels for this purpose. To compound this those received were moved to Russia from Alaska under their own in mid 1944 leaving crews little time to train.
    By mid 1945 the Soviets had in the Pacific:

    30 LCI (4 were lost off Shumshu Island on 8/17/45 to Japanese artillery fire when the Soviets landed)
    54 LCM (3 lost in the same action)
    15 LCT
    30 Smaller types.

    This gives the Soviets sufficent landing craft to put an infantry division ashore with some tank support. Hardly sufficent to allow for a landing on any heavily defended island or on mainland Japan.
     
  19. Devilsadvocate

    Devilsadvocate Ace

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    If that's all the landing craft the Soviets could muster in the Pacific, it's going to be a mighty thin infantry division they can put ashore. A rough estimate would be about 10-12 thousand troops, and maybe a couple of tank companies. And that leaves no capacity for reserves or reinforcements, specialist units, artillery, resupply, or losses due to enemy action, let alone the inevitable operational losses. I'd say a regimental sized landing (which is what was tentatively planned for the notional Soviet landing on Hokkaido) is more reasonable with some reserve capacity for supply and reinforcement. I agree though that the Soviets aren't going to be successful against any of the main Japanese Home Islands with such thin amphibious resources.
     

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